I wrote earlier in the week that the fact that only the three placegetters from last year’s Everest have survived to contest this year’s running tended to suggest the weakness of the inaugural event.
Indeed, a cursory examination of last year’s field and this makes it pretty obvious that this Saturday’s running has brought together a vastly superior bunch, so that Redzel, Vega Magic and Brave Smash might have their work cut out, even if in top form.
The barrier draw has served to complicate an already tricky picture, but I still feel that the first two runners from last year, in particular, really are up against it this time around.
Neither could run a place last start, and their overall form just doesn’t seem as strong.
Brave Smash might be the one to shoot holes in my argument. He is racing at least as well, and it appears that everything he has been asked to do since last year’s Everest has been directed at a better showing this year.
I would be surprised if he didn’t run a place, and his odds are very appealing.
The horse that ticks all the boxes to my way of thinking is Shoals. My view has always been that the best method to finding a Group 1 winner is to look for horses with proven Group-One form and great strike rates.
Shoals is not the only runner to meet these criteria, but it seems to me that she has always been a bit underrated.
These Group 1-winning mares tend to hold their form, and she has done nothing wrong this preparation and indeed, throughout her career.
She has obviously been aimed at this, and she made tremendous improvement between her first-up run and her fine second last time out.
She was solid in early markets and has done nothing but firm. I have seen markets issued since the barrier draw was conducted having her as a $7 equal favourite, which seems about right.
The blow-out runner might be another slick mare, Viddora. This horse has been a bit unnoticed in the lead up, but all her form is top shelf. The outside barrier doesn’t look great, but she will get back anyway, so it might be the proverbial blessing in disguise.
Along with Redzel and Vega Magic whose cases I have already detailed, Santa Ana Lane, Trapeze Artist and In Her Time appear under their right odds.
If you had told me two years ago that Santa Ana Lane would be close to favouritism in the world’s richest sprint in 2018, I would have urged you to consider psychiatric intervention.
I have never, meanwhile, been an admirer of Trapeze Artist, as he seems to need things to go his way in races. In Her Time seems to be drifting day by day, and seems to lack Group 1 credentials.
Others have chances, but I would certainly be happy to work with Shoals, Brave Smash and Viddora.
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