What a huge day of racing awaits on Saturday at Caulfield.
Four big Group 1 races, headlined by two Guineas and one of the best editions of the Caulfield Stakes we’ve seen for some time. The rest of the card is dripping with quality too, and that’s before we even get to The Everest meeting up in Sydney.
Punters will need to be on their game to get through 20 races at Caulfield and Randwick unscathed.
Caulfield Guineas
The Caulfield Guineas doesn’t look too hard to dissect this year, but then we probably said that last season and a 100-1 shot popped up and won.
The Autumn Sun is the dominant favourite after his eye-popping finish to win the Golden Rose last start. That race is almost always the strongest form reference for three year olds as they progress through the spring, and this year shouldn’t be any different.
The Autumn Sun was already a Group 1 winner at two, so there is nothing fluky about him, and everything indicates that the 1400m of the Golden Rose will be short of his best trip. Stepping up to a mile will hold no problem at all, and it’s easy to see why everyone is excited about him.
Native Soldier is sure to lead, as he has done twice at Caulfield this preparation for two thumping wins. He won the McNeil Stakes and then the Guineas Prelude which are two of the traditional lead-ups for the Guineas.
There is a bit of Starspangledbanner in the way he goes about his business, and like Native Soldier, that horse was also queried about his 1600m credentials leading into the Guineas with many thinking he wouldn’t see out the trip.
Oohood, the lone filly in the race, has been racing against the best of her age group since debut. Three times Group 1 placed at two, including a second in the Golden Slipper, she finally broke through for an overdue win last start in the Flight Stakes. That form has already been franked against the boys with Made in Heaven coming out of that race to win the Spring Champion last week.
These are clearly the three main chances. Gem Song deserves respect coming down from Sydney, as does Leonardo Da Hinchi after his Stutt Stakes win. A few others might be able to sneak a place. Keep an eye on Outrageous from a Derby perspective.
Racing at Caulfield. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)
The speed map looks clear-cut. Native Soldier to lead from barrier four, with Tavisan coming over from nine to sit outside or behind him. Neither jockey will have incentive to go too hard, and nor should they need to. Leonardo Da Hinchi should trail Tavisan across from gate 10 and aim for a box seat position on the outside of Muswellbrook pushing up from his inside draw.
The Autumn Sun will certainly be sitting in the back third of the field, with James McDonald trying not to get trapped on the inside. Ooohood will likely be midfield and have every chance.
Happy to take on The Autumn Sun given he may well be odds-on by the time they jump. He’ll have to spot Native Soldier many lengths in the run, and that horse might be able to get away with some cheap sectionals mid-race to steal the show.
Selections: 1.Native Soldier 2.The Autumn Sun 3.Oohood 4.Outrageous
Thousand Guineas
If The Autumn Sun is the superstar of the colts and geldings three-year-old brigade, Smart Melody holds that title on the fillies side.
She’s looked a gun from the get go, winning both of her two-year-old races by more than five lengths and then continuing to impress this season with three wins on end to remain unbeaten heading into this Group 1 assignment.
Smart Melody is a big, strong filly that has an imposing presence about her in the mounting yard and on the track, which gives every impression that she’s going to be a pure sprinter rather than a miler. Will she be able to extend her power to 1600m here?
Thrillster and El Dorado Dreaming filled the placings behind Smart Melody in the Tranquil Star. Both look suited to stepping up in trip more than the favourite does, and they meet her slightly better at the weights too.
El Dorado Dreaming was only first-up there, and is already a Group 1 winner. She has the class, will take more advantage out of the lead-up run than her rivals, and has drawn beautifully to find her feet just worse than midfield – she’ll peel out and look the winner at some stage.
Thrillster is in a similar boat and has to be taken ultra-seriously.
It’s a sharp field, with plenty of other chances.
Fiesta keeps running well – she went down narrowly in the Flight Stakes two weeks ago to Oohood. That filly is third favourite for the Caulfield Guineas. Amphirite keeps answering every question asked of her with three wins on the trot. Mirette was a stunning winner at Benalla and she will be thereabouts for sure.
Seabrook is a Group 1 winner at 1600m already, beating El Dorado Dreaming, and can improve at big odds. Fundamentalist is another that wouldn’t shock at a price with winkers first time. She has The Autumn Sun form from the Brisbane winter.
The speed map looks a bit messy for this one with no obvious leader. Smart Melody might be left to cart them up, but connections won’t want that, instead hoping she gets a nice trail behind whatever speed there is. The slower the race is run, the more in her favour it is, so she can conserve her energy and use her power at the end of the race.
Selections: 1.El Dorado Dreaming 2.Thrillster 3.Smart Melody 4.Mirette
Caulfield States
Boy, this is a race. Arguably better than some Cox Plate fields we’ve seen assembled. A true 2000m weight-for-age test.
The mixture of formlines here are intriguing.
Unforgotten and D’Argento bring the best of the Sydney form down to Melbourne, having both chased Winx this campaign then finished in the Epsom Handicap placings. Unforgotten has been screaming out for 2000m, if not 2400m, and has a dazzling finish on her. It will be unforgiveable if they don’t run her in the Caulfield Cup. D’Argento won the Rosehill Guineas at 2000m and is another rising star, but has to contend with the widest draw for his first trip to Caulfield.
Jockey Hugh Bowman riding D’Argento (AAP Image/Jeremy Ng)
Homesman, Tosen Basil, Humidor and Blair House were the first four home, in that order, in the Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago, and can be considered the testing material of the Melbourne WFA form. The beauty is that there is also some international form reference in there thanks to Tosen Basil’s Japan origins, while Blair House has raced with distinction in the UK and Dubai.
Homesman is unbeaten at Caulfield and is as tough as old boots. He’s the likely leader having to cross from gate 10. Tosen Basil was just out-toughed in the closing stages by Homesman in the Underwood, but it was a vastly improved performance from what we saw first-up from him in the Makybe Diva. He’ll keep improving as he works his way towards the Melbourne Cup.
Humidor never races the same way twice. He was a shock winner of the Memsie Stakes second-up, raced flat in the Makybe Diva, but was good again in the Underwood. Who knows what we’re going to get from him. Blair House made nice ground from the tail in the Underwood, and will surely benefit from what his first run in Australia and first look at Caulfield.
Jockey Damian Lane on Humidor wins the Makybe Diva Stakes (AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)
Then we have two more international visitors in Benbatl and The Cliffsofmoher.
Benbatl is as classy and highly rated a horse as we’ve had visit Australia, and he wears the number one saddlecloth accordingly. He’s a dual Group 1 winner than has a habit of bolting in when he wins, with an average winning margin in excess of three lengths. If he has his day, he’ll be winning.
The Cliffsofmoher has been racing consistently at the highest level for the last year and a half. He’s only had one win since May 2017, which is a concern, and he’s run into a hot field here.
Night’s Watch is also stepping up to WFA for the first time after his stunning Naturalism Stakes win. He’s won three from three at Caulfield, two of them at 2000m. He’ll be up to weight-for-age racing.
This is a deep affair, which may well be replicated in the Cox Plate with the addition of Winx, and arguably the most fascinating race on a Saturday full of them.
Selections: 1.Benbatl 2.Unforgotten 3.Blair House 4.Night’s Watch
Toorak Handicap
The Toorak has attracted a capacity field, with chances everywhere you look.
Hartnell, Shillelagh, Muraaqeb and Siege of Quebec come from the Espom, with Shillelagh the best weighted of these and the most likely to improve. She’ll get a lovely run from a middle barrier and is probably the one to beat.
The Rupert Clarke trifecta – Jungle Cat, Dollar for Dollar, Land of Plenty – are also engaged, along with Hellova Street and Lite’n In My Veins from that race. Land of Plenty is the best chance of these, if he can overcome the widest gate.
Black Heart Bart has been running midfield in the Group 1 WFA races and comes back to a handicap now, which should suit. He’s been going well, and the old boy can run a good race at big odds.
I Am A Star goes great guns in mares grade, and has won two on the trot, but usually gets found out against the boys. Noire is another mare that just keeps getting better for Chris Waller and she can pop up. Kingsguard was right behind her in the Shannon last start, and looks big odds.
Cliff’s Edge has always looked likely to be a player in the Group 1 handicaps, and he gets his chance here.
Radipole is enormous odds, and must go in multiples. His last four runs, he’s drawn barriers 14, 12, 12 and 12, and he finally gets a cosy gate here. The last time he drew an inside marble, he pushed Comin’ Through all the way. He’s at least three times the price he should be, and is a legitimate winning chance.
Selections: 1.Radipole 2.Shillelagh 3.Black Heart Bart 4.Land of Plenty
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