The Caulfield Cup has never been one of my favourite races. I’m not sure if it’s the time of year that it is run, the tightish nature of the track or the controversy that often follows the running of the race, but I just can’t seem to get into it.
In fact, I know perfectly well why it is not among my favourites – I haven’t picked the winner since I put a pin in my dad’s form guide when I was six years old in 1974.
The mile and a half under handicap conditions around the tight-turning Caulfield circuit does seem to have thrown up more than its fair share of surprises. We need look no further back than last year when Boom Times (who) seemed to come out of nowhere to salute the judge.
A few years earlier, All the good came from overseas at big odds to take out the event. Aside from long-priced winners, plenty of unheralded runners have filled the minor placings at huge odds.
Think Barbaricus in the same running that All the Good won. All in all, it’s just a race I have difficulty working out, and it seems I am not alone.
(AAP Image/Julian Simth)
It used to be that Melbourne and Sydney three-year-old form from the last season stood up pretty well. This seems to have changed in recent times, with overseas raiders and past Melbourne-Cup winners both featuring prominently over the past decade.
However, two of the past three years have produced what might be called back-to-the-future moments with the victories of Mongolian Khan in 2015 and Jameka the following year.
Interestingly, both have been among the shortest-priced winners this century.
One form line that has definitely faded from apparent relevance is that from the Queensland winter.
We have to go all the way back to Ethereal in 2001 to find a horse who took out one or both of the Queensland three-year-old classics in the same year as winning a Caulfield Cup. Ethereal went on to win the Melbourne Cup, as we all know, so she was well above average if not a champion.
Youngstar stamped herself as a very good horse in Brisbane earlier this year, and she underlined her potential at Flemington last start. I just wonder if her winter form will hold up here.
As I have argued, it has been a long time since Queensland form has proven strong enough. It has always been a notch or two below the southern form, but this gap has definitely become more pronounced in recent years.
The shambolic state of racing administration up here hasn’t helped attract good horses of course. (Yes, I am a Queenslander.)
I wouldn’t necessarily take her on, chiefly because I have learned my lesson after panning the prospects of Redzel last week, but I do wonder if she represents any value at her current price.
There are a lot of unknown quantities in the race and the overseas staying form is usually very strong. I think I would rather find another better-priced runner than take around the $5 for the current favourite.
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