There’s some Friday-night action this week before the weekend proper gets under with a bumper Saturday of racing, where most of the attention will be focused on Caulfield.
Let’s find some winners.
Pakenham – Race 7
Kicking our best bets off on Friday night at Pakenham to give our BetEasy accounts a headstart on a big Saturday of racing, particularly at Caulfield where we have a full ten-race card, highlighted of course by the Caulfield Cup.
It’s hard to go past Darren Weir at the moment, given his stable is firing on all cylinders and landing multiple winners at almost every meeting where they have representation. Making it easier is when Weir only has one runner in a race, which is the case with Won Ball in Race 7 at Pakenham.
One of the most lightly raced horses in this 1200m field, Won Ball has shown ability from debut when he won his first two starts. He resumed this campaign after being gelded with his usual solid performance, but put in a downer second-up. After that, he was freshened where the Weir camp obviously ironed out a few kinks.
Last time out, off his freshen, Won Ball was outstanding when wide in the trip but ended up going down narrowly. With even luck in running, he wins that race comfortably, and he finds himself in a similar field here. Weir horses usually peak third or fourth up and maintain their form through a preparation, and we can expect the same here.
Bet: No.5 – Won Ball
Caulfield – Race 1
Given we think Darren Weir can kick us off on the right foot on Friday night, let’s follow him in again to start the day at Caulfield with a filly called Delusions.
Delusions made her debut on a Tuesday at Swan Hill two-and-a-half weeks ago, and it was quite the action-packed start to her career. Her irons broke as the horses were in the mounting yard, which led to a 15-minute delay while they swapped out her gear. After getting through this and finding her way to the barrier, she refused to load and there was a danger she would be scratched.
To top things off, she was jumping from barrier 12 in a 12-horse field, no easy task for a three-year-old filly against older mares and geldings, even in a Swan Hill maiden.
None of this was a concern as she found herself behind the speed before bolting in by near on four lengths, showing some style in doing it.
Weir has a long history of debuting his horses at country tracks and then bringing them to town for immediate success. We just saw him win the Thousand Guineas with Amphitrite, who had won a maiden at Sale only 34 days earlier. Delusions looks nicely placed here to follow in those footsteps.
Bet: No.9 – Delusions – $3.10 with BetEasy
Caulfield – Race 3
Speaking of lightly-raced horses that can progress quickly, Eduardo, trained out of Cranbourne by Sarah Zschoke, certainly fits the bill.
Eduardo has only raced four times but has shown high quality in all of them. He kicked off his career with a six-length win in a Moe maiden, then followed it up with a mid-week win at Sandown by an easy four lengths after leading all the way.
Next up was Caufield, where he just failed to outlast Spending to Win, and then despite being badly outgraded at the weights he almost won the Group 2 Gilgai at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day, gunned down late by talented Sydney mare I Am Excited.
Quilista and Bons Away were in the Gilgai, not far behind Eduardo in third and fourth, and they both meet him worse at the weights here. We also have to think Eduardo has more progression than them, given how much he has improved from start to start in his career so far.
Back to 1000m from 1200m shouldn’t be an issue, and back around Caulfield he can either set the speed and kick off the turn, or sit just behind horses like Super Too and Quilista and simply prove too fast for them in the straight.
Bet: No.6 – Eduardo – $3.30 with BetEasy
Caulfield – Race 6
The Caulfield Classic brings together the three-year-olds on the Derby trail and mashes together the Sydney and Melbourne form. The clash of formlines brings opportunity, where we might identify a weakness in the market.
Extra Brut has come up favourite in this event, and while we’ve been quick to sing Darren Weir’s praises earlier and it might be folly to take him on, the case can be made that Thinkin’ Big for Gai Waterhouse should be the deserved favourite and is thus over the odds.
Thinkin’ Big came off an eight-week break to win the Gloaming Stakes in September in a dominant on-speed performance. This was the race Ace High won last year on his way to taking out the VRC Derby, and he is currently one of the favourites for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
Thinkin’ Big followed his Gloaming win with a third in the Group 1 Spring Champion, in what was a creditable performance on a soft track. He strikes as the type of horse that likes it genuinely dry, and will improve a few lengths on good ground.
Thinkin’ Big should be able to cross and lead without too much trouble, even from barrier 11. It’s doubtful many will want to take him on up front given all these horses are hitting 2000m for the first time and have a 2500m race in mind two weeks from now. Expect him to control the race and given no other horse a chance on his way to victory.
Bet: No.1 – Thinkin’ Big – $3.80 with BetEasy
Randwick – Race 7
The Nivision Stakes is the feature at Randwick on Saturday, and presents as an open betting race.
The class horse of the race is Eckstein, and she gets the opportunity to achieve back-to-back wins here after winning at Flemington last start.
In the last 12 months, Eckstein has been beaten less than a length in Group 1 mares races like the Myer Classic and Coolmore Handicap, and finds a Group 3 here that lacks depth. Her biggest problem will be the drop back in distance from 1400m to 1200m, but this will be offset by any give in the ground – her wet track record is superb.
Eckstein’s last two starts suggest she has found the zone, and good mares generally keep that form going once they have it. At each-way odds, we can back her with some safety of a return.
Bet: No.3 – Eckstein – $5.50/$2.10 with BetEasy
All odds correct as of Thursday, October 18
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