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Over the past three seasons GWS have traded away Cam McCarthy, Jack Steele, Paul Ahern, Pat Mckenna, James Stewart, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Rhys Palmer, Matt Kennedy, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Devon Smith, Nathan Wilson, Rory Lobb, Tom Scully, Dylan Sheil and Will Setterfield.
Using the AFL draft value index, we can work out the implied value of these 16 players at the time of their recruitment and compare it to their trade value received on exit.
This quantifies the value added or lost by the club through their recruitment, development and subsequent trading.
Including the value of the draft picks bundled into player trades, since 2016 the Giants have turned 27,871 points* into 10,428 points.
This equates to taking 16 pick 5s in the draft, developing them for multiple years and then trading them for 16 pick 23’s (or seven pick 5s).
By comparison, during this same period the Adelaide Crows; a club often maligned for not retaining key players; lost four players – Lyon, Lever, Cameron and McGovern – who they recruited for a draft value of 1703 points, receiving 5966 points* back in exchange when traded.
In draft terms, they’ve turned one pick 6 into three pick 5s. GWS by comparison have turned 16 into 7.
Most media focus only on retention, ignoring the value exchange that takes place between point of recruitment and exit.
If managed well, even unwanted player turnover can add value – as demonstrated by the Crows – but managed badly, it’s a road to ruin.
So far, the Giants’ stockpile of first-round draft riches gifted at inception has largely obscured their downward trajectory.
But as the wise head knows, you should be far more concerned with your current trajectory than with your current results.
Ironically, the absence of a GWS fan base has helped the optics off their continued player attrition.
The same list management at an establishment club would inevitably lead to attacks from within, with members calling for heads and a spiralling negative news cycle.
The lack of a passionate response from GWS supporters over the fire sale of an inaugural club signing like Tom Scully shows what a vacuum exists there – with neutral supporters demonstrably more irate and vocal than anyone from Western Sydney.
(Photo: Adam Trafford/Getty Images)
When the two things going for you are the remnants of a one-off plethora of first round draft picks, gifted by your creator, and the absence of a fan base that cares enough to keep you accountable, you’re headed for trouble.
Going forward, now there is a relatively level draft playing field, the Giants simply cannot afford to keep burning high end picks.
This is not conjecture, it’s factual – no club can remain competitive if they continually draft top 10 picks only to trade them for second round picks several years into their development. The successful clubs do the very opposite.
Blaming their problems on the removal of COLA is to miss the point, as well as twist the facts.
The 9.8 per cent cost of living allowance, if still in effect, would give GWS an additional $1.25 million salary cap space in 2019.
Yet GWS chief executive Dave Matthews claims, “It [COLA… was completely removed last year. That’s $3 million of purchasing power that goes.”
GWS obviously need a calculator, as clearly poor maths has contributed to their salary cap woes. And even if the player attrition is salary cap driven, it’s still attrition, with value erosion rather than value adding along the way.
Given the age profile of the squad, it’s unlikely the cap issue will go away, so the cycle is set to continue.
Those that deny a player retention and development problem exists, or externalise the cause, show a failure of awareness.
Blindly supporting the Giants is not the way to help them break the cycle – they need change. Under the status quo, 2016 and 2017 will prove their high watermark.
*Underage players Dylan Shiel and Nathan Wilson draft value assumed as equivalent to draft pick 10.
*McAdam draft value assumed as equivalent to draft pick 30.
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