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Three things that will decide the Melbourne Derby

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Roar Rookie
19th October, 2018
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These are the games that turn an entire city’s attention to football, the kinds of games where heroes emerge, where dreams are fulfilled… and hearts broken. It’s the champions up against the noisy neighbours, it’s the 27th Melbourne Derby.

The pressure in these games often trumps preseason form, or so Victory would hope, considering their concerning struggle to score freely in this preseason.

At the risk of using irony, Victory have reminded me a little of City early last season, looking dangerous without teeth.

City however, are an unpredictable package, with most of their preseason friendlies played behind closed doors or overseas.

This will be the first derby since they were known as Melbourne Heart that they won’t have to worry about Besart Berisha.

City will see this as the beginning of a new era, Victory will hope their big-name signings of Keisuke Honda and Ola Toivonen will bring more than enough to continue their recent dominance over their cross-town rivals. The question is simple, will they?

As the days count down to the derby, here are three factors that will determine the winner of Melbourne Derby number 27.

Honda vs The Rolls Royce
The star power will be on full display Saturday night, as both Melbourne teams boast two of the strongest lineups in the comp.

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Focus will be on the key attackers from both sides – Keisuke Honda from Victory, Bruno Fornaroli from City.

In a strange sense, Honda is a variable that can’t be properly prepared for by City as he’s only played one game for Victory and that was behind closed doors.

Will Honda show the silky skills that made him such a huge name signing? Or will he disappoint the navy blue faithful and struggle against what might just be the strongest defence in the competition now after the recent acquisition of premier league winner and Belgian international Ritchie De Laet?

Honda’s performance will largely determine if Victory control the front third on Saturday and specifically, the ease at which they will score.

In contrast to the unknown quantity that is Honda, Bruno Fornaroli is an X-Factor, and Victory know it.

Bruno has the ability to be a serial scorer if not marked properly and will punish Victory’s goal if given the opportunity.

My tip – Honda will underestimate the talent of City’s defence and struggle to impact through the centre of the ground, Ritchie De Laet will have his hands full with Kosta Barbarouses and might fall into the same trap as Honda by underestimating his opponent.

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Despite this, Bruno will still run rampant with Victory’s defence and will be the difference in terms of star power on Saturday.

Keisuke Honda celebrates after scoring a goal

Keisuke Honda is now a Melbourne Victory player. (Photo by Kaz Photography/Getty Images)

Will preseason make an impact?
A stat that has flown under the radar this preseason has been City’s surprising ability to keep the ball out of their own net, a resident weakness in seasons past, Warren Joyce has bolstered his side’s back line and to good effect.

Since the start of their preseason in India, City have conceded ten goals, and six of those were against a Spanish top-flight side.

That’s an impressive four goals conceded from nine games, all but one against A-League opposition.

Contrastingly Victory have had a preseason that could be called concerning to say the least.

With losses to Adelaide, Wellington and most notably, NPL side APIA Leichhardt Tigers. Kevin Muscat will be hoping the change in atmosphere and pressure will force another level out of his boys.

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The Melbourne Derby has fallen on Round 1 on two different occasions, back in the Melbourne Heart era.

Victory went into both with successful preseasons and came out losers in one, and a nil-nil draw in the other.

While these occurred in a different time for the league, when support between the clubs were booming, the hatred between fans is still everpresent and will likely hold off preseason form until Round 2 for both sides.

My tip – If preseason form manages to have an impact here, City will run rampant over Victory. But history of derbies in our country suggests that it won’t. Both teams will have a crack and preseason will not affect the match.

New heroes or will history repeat itself?
The thought of the recent history of the Melbourne derby will be more than enough to force Melbourne City fans to shudder.

Victory have won the last two, and four of the last five. It’s distinctly obvious that Victory thrive under pressure, their silverware cabinet speaks volumes about their abilities to keep a cool head when the heat is on.

This will be their greatest weapon in the derby as City are becoming infamous for choking, three semi-final losses including wilting under the pressure of last season’s semi-final which devastatingly robbed us neutral fans of a derby grand final as well as a 98th-minute loss in last season’s Christmas Derby. City are chokers.

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Both teams have experienced significant overhaul in the off season, City offloading their captain and many promising attackers including starlet Daniel Arzani, and Victory with a side almost unrecognizable to the one they fielded in the Grand Final last season.

My tip – With the potential for more than 10 players to make their Melbourne Derby debut, history can’t be considered a factor here.

Prediction
City have been severely underrated after the preseason they’ve had on and off the pitch.

Victory have been the talk of the town while their rivals have been going about their business quietly. Don’t expect a one-sided game here.

City will burst out the gates and snatch an early lead in regards to controlling the play, tempo will shift towards Victory after settling into the game. Second half will be won by City comfortably.

Melbourne Victory 1-3 Melbourne City.

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