Now that the UAE fiasco has reached its inevitable conclusion and our batting renaissance has crumbled like an arrowroot dipped in tea, I am trying to find out why the away team at such a disadvantage in modern Test cricket.
I know you are saying this has always been the case, but what has happened since the year 2000 has gone significantly against the trend.
I am not a stats guy, but we can’t start analysing why unless some figures are displayed.
In the period from 1980 to 1989, away records for top teams were running at 51 wins against 74 losses. Not great but not disastrous. This covers tours to Australia, Asia, South Africa, New Zealand and England.
But what happened in the period from 2000 to 2015 is that the same top teams won 37 and lost 81. This is a much worse percentage. Is it a trend or an unexplained phenomenon?
I have questioned lots of people and uniformly get confusion and shrugs. What is the reason?
My opinion is based on what has happened in the last 15 years. The answer is T20 (including the IPL) and ODI games that haave resulted in a gradual improvement in the lower ranked cricket nations.
A Test match is five times longer than an ODI and roughly 12 times longer than a T20 game. A lot of these games mean nothing when it comes to winning or losing (except when there is World Cup to play for).
Most cricket watchers give much greater weight to winning or losing a Test match. When the Test ranking system comes in next year the emphasis on winning or losing will be greater.
One of my theories is that T20 and ODI cricket, with its emphasis on attack, has meant that previously cautious and overwhelmed teams have given it a go and not worried so much about losing a single game.
ODI and T20 cricket has already had an effect on Test cricket. The scoring rate that for years had lingered between two and three runs per over now seems to have increased to 2.5 to 3.5 runs per over. Although I have no stats to prove it I am sure that the number of sixes per Test has increased.
This confidence by previously overwhelmed teams seems to have caused the great improvement in their Test results at home. My theory still can’t explain why they can’t do better away. Maybe this will happen over a period of time. It also can’t explain why the bigger nations do very badly when they have away tours.
So, this last paragraph is like a shrug. Can any of you brilliant Roarers give me an explanation, or will this be the Marie Celeste of cricket questions?
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