The first week of the 2018-19 NBA season has been completed, and it’s always hard to not overreact to what you’ve witnessed after just three or four games played by each team.
Try as you may to tell yourself “it’s just one week”, when you’ve been starved of on-court action, it’s easy to get over-excited and read far too much into a tiny sample size of the regular season.
Yet that doesn’t stop people writing, debating, podcasting and hot-taking their overreactions to one mere week of ball.
As such, I thought I’d go the other way, and list the top five under-reactions from Week 1 of the NBA; the storylines that people aren’t really reacting to.
1. Jayson Tatum is already Boston’s best player
After an impressive rookie year in which Tatum showed the composure of a veteran and the silky offensive skills of history’s greatest scoring small forwards, many proclaimed that the Duke alumni may end up being the Celtics’ best player in a few years’ time.
That time may well be now.
Further making the Markelle Fultz trade with Philly look like highway robbery by Danny Ainge, Tatum has been Boston’s best player across their opening four games.
He’s continued the level-headed play he exhibited last year but added a little more confidence and swagger. The highlight was him burying the Knicks with some clutch plays down the stretch, including a gorgeous isolation jumper to seal the game.
He has the complete offensive package and will be near unstoppable with just a little more experience. He’s also smart, knows where to be defensively and is a solid and willing passer.
Given his all-around game, health, size and start to the season, I have no hesitation in saying he could be a better player than Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Al Horford right now.
Of course, it’s also only been a week.
2. The Thunder are 0-3
I didn’t see too many experts and pundits ranking the Lakers above the Thunder in pre-season, and even those that did, LA weren’t touted to be way above OKC.
So it’s interesting that all the heat is on the Lakers for starting the season 0-3, yet the Thunder are somewhat flying under the radar with the exact same record. Why is it that they’re not undergoing the same scrutiny?
Well, the answer is relatively straight-toward: LeBron James and Los Angeles Lakers.
Those two things in isolation come with intense media attention. Combine them and you have a Molotov cocktail of media interest, and therefore a plethora of stories on the Lakers’ 0-3 start.
Plus, Thunder superstar Russell Westbrook missed the first two games of the season, buying a little leeway for their poor beginning to the season.
(Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images)
However, people shouldn’t sleep on the Thunder’s slow start. In the ultra-competitive Western Conference, you can’t give teams too much of a head start, and OKC would desperately want to get on the board with their first W fairly quickly, or risk being on the outside of the eight when the playoffs begin.
Of course, it’s also only been a week.
3. Kemba for MVP!
Look at the two leaders in scoring after a week of action, and please put your hand up if you predicted Nikola Mirotic and Kemba Walker would be sitting atop the list.
Oh, put your hand down! You did not!
Charlotte have a frisky roster this year in a weaker Eastern Conference, plus Kemba is a free agent at the end of the season. That’s a recipe for a career year from the Hornets point guard, and he has started the season on fire, dropping 41, 26, 39 and 26 in four games for an average of 33.
Though it’s unlikely he can keep that pace of scoring up, if Charlotte can win 50 games, secure fourth spot in the East and Kemba averages close to 30 a game, he could be a darkhorse for the MVP award.
Of course, it’s also only been a week.
4. Nikola for MIP!
In a similar fashion, Mirotic has been absolutely lights out for the Pelicans.
After joining the team via trade during last season, he proved himself to be an ideal partner to Anthony Davis in the frontcourt; so much so that New Orleans were willing to let star DeMarcus Cousins leave via free agency.
With a pre-season with New Orleans under his belt, Mirotic looks even more at home this year, and his outside shooting spaces the floor, ensuring he’s the perfect complement to Davis, allowing ‘The Brow’ more room to operate without fear of a double team coming from Mirotic’s man.
Except, Mirotic has been left open, and is scoring at will.
Like Walker, I doubt he can maintain his 33 points per game average for the season, but if he can average around 20 points for the year, he’ll be in prime position to take home the Most Improved Player award at season’s end.
Of course, it’s also only been a week.
5. Donovan Mitchell’s second season is a ‘sophomore slump’
Courtesy of an unexpectedly brilliant rookie season and playing for a non-sexy team, Mitchell became a media darling last season. He was a popular story because no one really saw him being that good, as evidenced by him being drafted at 13.
(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
However, this year teams are ready for him. He’s seeing increased defensive attention, and courtesy of thorough scouting and preparation, he isn’t surprising anyone. He’s simply not creeping up on anyone and catching them unaware of just how good he is.
Additionally, as great as Mitchell was in his first year in the league, he made a large number of shots at a high degree of difficulty. With that success comes the confidence to keep taking them. That’s not always a good thing, and to be blunt, thus far this season, Mitchell’s shot selection hasn’t been great.
Such is the fickle nature of basketball, whether a shot is judged good or bad can rest largely on whether it went in or not. In three games this year, Mitchell’s shot has been more ‘not’, hitting just 34 per cent from the field.
Though one could argue that such numbers can be skewed when you’re trusted with being the bail-out option at the end of the shot clock – which are traditionally tough shots – the flipside is that numbers don’t lie: Mitchell is struggling and his second season might be a ‘sophomore slump’.
Of course… it’s also only been a week.
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