The 2018 NFL season is not even halfway through but we already have a good idea of who the playoff contenders (and pretenders) are.
Almost as exciting is the race for the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, a prize that awaits the team who has succeeded in being the most-least good.
Unlike their NBA counterparts, NFL players themselves don’t make a conscious effort to tank. Given that they’re on non-guaranteed contracts (and perhaps only 10-15 players on a squad have any reassurance they’ll be there the following year), conventional wisdom holds that a player has no allegiance to a coach actively tanking, and in any event wants to produce game-film that could get them a job the following year (on another team no doubt).
Coaches on the other hand probably don’t mind a series of hard-fought losses to close the year, although how they motivate their players whilst actively hoping to lose at the mid-season mark is beyond me. In any event, here are the seven teams I figure will be “in the hunt” for the NFL’s worst-best prize.
1. New York Giants (current record 1-6)
Ahead: The Giants’ roster is still not so awful that I think they will tank-out to the very bottom – they have winnable games against the Titans and 49ers, and home games against the Buccaneers and Cowboys.
There’s still probably 2-3 wins left in this team at a minimum, given the talent that Beckham and Barkley possess. Mind you, five concrete statues would do a better job than their offensive line has this year.
How they wish they’d have taken Sam Darnold at number two last year…
Predicted finish: 4-12
Eli Manning of the NFL’s New York Giants calls a play. (Michael Zagaris/Getty Images)
2. San Francisco 49ers (current record 1-6)
Ahead: These 49ers are still good enough to win games. They face Arizona in this week in what should be an absolute beat-down of a Cardinals team lacking any semblance of confidence having been smashed by the Broncos last week.
Ditto the following week against the Oakland Raiders (see below). If they catch the Giants, Seahawks and Broncos on bad days, they could still well win four games. Overall I feel they have been playing better than their record suggests.
The strongest… best… most-likely not-to-tank of the tank candidates other than the Colts.
Predicted finish: 5-11
3. Arizona Cardinals (current record 1-6)
Ahead: The Cardinals face the 49ers and Raiders within the next three weeks, however in the middle of those games is a guaranteed whooping by the white-hot Kansas City Chiefs.
I don’t see them winning any of their last six against the Chargers, Packers, Lions, Falcons, Rams or Seahawks (away). This team is bad, bad, bad. But not as bad as the…
Predicted finish: 2-14
4. Oakland Raiders (current record 1-6)
Ahead: Jon Gruden is actively pouring fuel on the raging dumpster fire that is the 2018 Oakland Raiders. Any talent they had to start the season has either been traded (Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper) or sent to injured reserve (Marshawn Lynch).
Their current offense – Derek Carr, Jordy Nelson, Doug Martin, Martavis Bryant – all had their heyday in 2015. On the flipside, they now have five picks in the first round in 2019 and 2020 combined, and cheer every time the Bears and Cowboys lose. They’re going to do their best to make sure each of those years is first overall.
Their only win this year basically came from the refs stiffing the Cleveland Browns. Sums up their season really.
Predicted finish: 2-14. I’m not even sure where that other win comes from – over the Cardinals maybe? This is a team whose coach has actively quit on them mid-season.
I suspect there is more trade activity to come before next week.
5. Indianapolis Colts (current record 2-5)
Ahead: Healthy Andrew Luck. Mediocre defence (usually it’s just plain horrible). Marlon Mack showing encouraging signs of a running game (caveat emptor: the Bills).
Will win the occasional game, honestly not in first overall conversation. Will eviscerate Raiders this week and more than capable of doing the same to the Jaguars twice.
Predicted finish: 6-10
Andrew Luck (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
6. Buffalo Bills (current record 2-5)
Ahead: The Bills have looked every part as inept as the Raiders, however Josh Allen has proven occasionally competent.
Still a smouldering pile of you-know-what until he returns from injury. Will be in the hunt, but ultimately stuffed up by beating the Vikings in a game Vegas had a record 16.5 point spread on. The outlier-iest of outliers that one. Still have to play the Jets and Dolphins twice. Will jag a win out of one of those.
Predicted finish: 3-13
7. Cleveland Browns (current record 2-4-1)
Ahead: No discussion about teams playing badly and competing for the first overall pick would be complete without discussing the high-water mark for such teams over the last ten years. However, this discussion will be short – Cleveland are too talented to be in the race this year.
Baker Mayfield has brought competence to the quarterback position, David Njoku and Jarvis Landry are allowing Cleveland to move the ball, and the defence lead by 2016 first overall pick Myles Garrett are getting turnovers and making plays.
Frankly, their record could (should?) be better – they have been to overtime four times in seven games (1-2-1). They might still crack the top 10, but this team will be thinking playoffs next year.
Predicted finish: It’s Cleveland. I’m done guessing. Will take even money on them finishing with two ties.
Key games in the race to the bottom
49ers at Arizona, Week 8
49ers at Raiders, Week 9
Raiders at Arizona, Week 11
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