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The biggest week of racing for the entire year awaits, and each day we get closer to the race which stops a nation.
Derby Day has traditionally been Christmas for racing fans, known as the best racing for the entire year – this moniker is under threat these days, with the Caulfield Guineas and Everest day probably laying claim to Australia’s greatest race day.
Either way, we’ve got some classic Group 1 races ahead of us, and a fine support card.
Acceptances for the VRC Derby were taken on Tuesday morning, and you can check out my preview from Wednesday here. That still leaves us with three big Group 1s to try and decipher.
Kennedy Mile
What a tough open affair the Kennedy Mile shapes to be. Previously on the last day of the Flemington carnival and known as the Emirates Stakes, it has been moved forward to Derby. It’s a 1600m handicap, in the great tradition of Australian racing.
The Toorak Handicap winner Land of Plenty is the favourite here, and he meets four of his rivals from that race again. Of course, thanks to his win he has to meet the rest of them 2.5kg’s worse but this is somewhat offset by the amount of ground he had to cover jumping from barrier 18.
Hartnell wasn’t far off Land of Plenty in second in the Toorak, which followed his Epsom win Sydney. What a rich vein of form he’s in. And isn’t it great to see a grand old warrior racing in these big handicaps, not afraid to carry big weights? Look for him to be thereabouts again.
Siege of Quebec was good in the Epsom and better in the Toorak, before having his chance in the Crystal at Moonee Valley last week. He just seems to be a length or two off this level. Cliff’s Edge has been in good form himself, and won that Crystal after a strong Toorak run. If the race is to be won by something settling in the first four, then it will be him.
Noire is the only mare in the field, taking on this race instead of the Empire Rose. She’s been racing in great heart but others look to have her measure.
The first five horses home in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes run on Caulfield Cup day all front up here.
Sircconi won the Moonga, a deserved result after returning in fine fettle as a four-year-old. 1600m is a little query with him, but he’s drawn to get the run he likes on the speed. Dreamforce was second in the Moonga, and if you swap his run with Sircconi you’d possibly swap the result.
Perast ran honestly as he always does in third, but is another with a distance query and needs to find a few lengths in this class. Tom Melbourne is Tom Melbourne – it must be said he ran second in this race last year, but isn’t quite going as well and will jump from the widest gate.
Peaceful State ran the quickest sectionals home in the Moonga, which was to be expected. Flemington and the step up to 1600m is more his go, but barrier two doesn’t appeal as great for him.
Le Romain and Comin’ Through are class horses, dropping back from WFA runs to handicap conditions.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Le Romain won this in 2016, was second to Winx two starts back and comes off a great Everest run (albeit in his favoured heavy conditions). He’s a threat. Comin’ Through has been running okay but wasn’t quite up to Group 1 WFA in Melbourne and then wasn’t suited on the heavy last time out.
Best of Days was first emergency but gets a run with the scratching of Crack Me Up. He was a co-winner of the Coongy as hot favourite. He’s made great gains in his first Australian preparation for Godolphin. A Life Less Ordinary comes from the same race, and looks over the odds. He wasn’t far behind Best of Days there, and meets him 4.5kg’s better. In fact, 52kg’s will be a luxury for a horse that usually carries far more.
Mister Sea Wolf was great from near last in the Epsom and might be able to settle closer from a good draw here. Fastnet Tempest has form that ties into those from the Moonga, which gives him some sort of case. We can’t take them all, however.
If Iconoclasm gets a run as the next bench player, he’ll be a threat too. He’s been improving lengths with each run, and will enjoy a weight drop after carrying 59kg’s last start.
While there’s no out-and-out leader engaged there are several horses that like to race right on top of the pace, and how these horses sort themselves out from a variety of barriers will hold the key to how quickly the race is run.
Selections: 1.Cliff’s Edge, 2.Land of Plenty, 3.Le Romain, 4.Hartnell
Coolmore Stud Stakes
The Coolmore Stud Stakes is probably the number one stallion-making race in Australia and usually makes for a great race of its own accord regardless. This year sees a particularly even edition if the betting is to be believed.
Written By is the pick of the Victorian colts – the Blue Diamond winner has won six of seven races with his only loss a fourth in the Golden Slipper in his only run on soft ground. He’s done what he’s needed to in his two wins this prep but will need to find a couple of levels from those – the fact he has been trained for this race only is in his favour and we can trust him to peak on grand final day.
Encryption was second to Written By in the Blue Sapphire last start, and the way that horse controlled the lead he was never really a chance from back in the small field. His win in the Danehill at this track and distance shouldn’t be forgotten and he’ll be one of the quickest finishers in the race.
Zousain and Lean Mean Machine are Chris Waller stablemates, both freshened since the Golden Rose six weeks ago, and the only duo coming from that race. The Golden Rose is always a great pointer to the Coolmore and it should be taken seriously as a form reference.
Zousain was the one bloused by superstar The Autumn Sun in the Golden Rose, and we’ve seen what that horse did to the Caulfield Guineas field since. If you want to break this race down simply, you put Zousain on top and trust The Autumn Sun form.
You can’t spell Coolmore without cool. (AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)
Lean Machine probably has more brilliance than Zousain but mixes his form. He won the Run to the Rose when not expected but then put in just a run when more favoured in the Golden Rose itself.
Lean Mean Machine and Zousain have met the last four times they’ve been to the races for a 2-2 result. It’s hard to split them as talents, and both are by the Coolmore winner Zoustar.
Sesar is right in the market, as he should be. He ran in the same Queensland races as Zousain and Lean Mean Machine in the winter, performing more than respectably, and he returned with a strong and easy win in the Roman Consul first-up.
Diplomatico is the most lightly raced runner in the field with only three starts, but is already a Stakes winner after his last start performance. He’s meeting the top shelf here, and it just might be a bit soon for him.
The other main chance in the race is the only filly, Sunlight. She’s a winning machine that runs well even when she doesn’t salute, and has two victories against her own sex this prep. Last start she never saw daylight and was still only three lengths off the winner Brave Smash, who was coming off an Everest run.
Long Leaf mixes his form a bit and isn’t the easiest to trust, which is at odds with his early two-year-old days when he was the uber-professional. Thorondor’s Danehill second gives him a hope of some kind drawing a line through Encryption, but he’d need to produce his absolute best. Paquirri is banking on a dry track improving his chances, but did beat home Lean Mean Machine home when winning the Kindergarten Stakes back in April.
Written By or Sunlight will lead this field up, with the other taking a sit and tracking. The nature of straight racing and this size field means there shouldn’t be a lot of ground covering the main chances in the run, and each one of them should have their chance.
Selections: 1.Lean Mean Machine, 2.Zousain, 3.Written By, 4.Sunlight
Empire Rose Stakes
In fields of depth and quality on Derby Day the Empire Rose Stakes, run over 1600m for fillies and mares, might be the toughest to work out. There really are a host of chances.
It was pretty rare for fillies to have a crack at this race, but since the Thousand Guineas was brought forward from the Wednesday to Caulfield Guineas day, it seems to suit them better. Fillies have won the last two runnings, and this year there are four of them fronting up.
Amphitrite was the Thousand Guineas winner, and what a win from last it was. She’s a remarkable story, all the way from maiden class to Group 1 glory in four runs across one preparation. She’s the one to beat, and has drawn to get a lovely midfield run.
(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Fundamentalist was second in the Thousand Guineas (at 100-1) and Seabrook returned to form with third at big odds too. Fundamentalist has run well again since, and Seabrook is already a Group 1 winner at a mile.
Oohood was placed at Group 1 level three times as a two-year-old and finally got her win in the Flight Stakes, which has proven to be a hot form race. She was third in the Caulfield Guineas after connections chose to take on the boys instead of her own sex.
I Am a Star has been running the table in mares grade this campaign, stringing together three on end. She’s been beautifully placed by trainer Shane Nichols and won this race two years back. She’ll get a lovely run behind leader Shumookh.
Shumookh has won two of her last three, with the failure her only career start at 1600m. That’s the question mark, but she’s in form.
Invincibella has beaten most of these at one point or another this prep and is simply flying. She was second to Shumookh last start who led and kept going. She probably isn’t as strong at a mile as she is at 1400m, but is in form enough to carry her all the way with the right run.
Aloisia put the writing on the wall with her fast-finishing third behind Shumookh and Invincibella last start, and unlike the other two there is no doubt she will be stronger at 1600m and meets them both a kilo better too.
Shillelagh has been taking on the boys in the big Group 1 handicaps, and has two fast-finishing fourths to her name. Remember, she beat the males in the Kennedy Mile on this day last year, and she’s in at least as good a form now.
Eckstein was second in this race last year, and is in better form now. She’s a legitimate Group 1 performer, and the forgotten horse of the field.
Temple of Bel will run well at nice odds, but look for her to back up in the Matriarch Stakes at 2000m next week. That’s her race. Bella Martini hasn’t been able to buy a trick at her last two, but the start before that was just nosed out by I Am a Star. She should box seat and can fill a placing at big odds.
There doesn’t look to be crazy speed in this race, and the leaders Shumookh and I Am a Star will be able to dictate to some extent if they don’t cut at each other.
Selections: 1.Ampitrite, 2.Shillelagh, 3.Eckstein, 4.Oohood