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Will Carlton fans have post-draft blues?

Ray Romano new author
Roar Rookie
21st November, 2018
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Ray Romano new author
Roar Rookie
21st November, 2018
33
1514 Reads

With the 2018 AFL National Draft imminent, it is timely to assess the club holding the coveted number one pick and the options the Carlton Football Club is presented with.

Let’s first consider Carlton’s recruitment strategy and list management decision-making since it last won the premiership in 1995. Since then the side’s win-loss ratio has been less than impressive and its appearance in finals series has been notably low.

Understandably, even the most faithful Blues supporters are frustrated with the lack of on-field success. while there are many elements that define a successful club and a myriad of reasons why a club might not achieve the ultimate success of winning a premiership or even making finals, it is hard to argue that Carlton’s recruitment strategy and decision-making in regard to list management hasn’t significantly contributed to its lack of on-field success.

Since enjoying the sweet taste of victory from the premiership cup in 1995 Carlton has released notable players from its list who have gone on to play elsewhere to great effect. Here are just a few examples from recent years:

  • Josh Kennedy (West Coast Eagles).
  • Eddie Betts (Adelaide).
  • Shaun Grigg (Richmond).
  • Sam Jacobs (Adelaide).
  • Zach Tuohy (Geelong).
  • Bryce Gibbs (Adelaide).
  • Lachie Henderson (Geelong).
  • Jarrod Waite (North Melbourne).
Kade Simpson of Carlton Blues

(Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Equally damning is the recent lack of success of recruiting and choosing successful draftees. Let’s take a look at some of Carlton’s first-round picks since 2009:

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  • Kane Lucas (2009 – pick 12).
  • Matthew Watson (2010 – pick 18).
  • Josh Bootsma (2011 – pick 22).
  • Troy Menzel (2012 – pick 11).
  • Kirsten Jaksch (Traded for 2014 – pick 7).
  • Blaine Boekhorst (2014 – pick 19).

Even the most lenient judges of football talent would agree these players have not lived up to expectations and therefore must be considered as poor recruiting decisions.

The combined result of key players exiting and first-round draft picks not reaching anywhere near their potential displays poor list management and recruiting over the past decade.

And so here we are, 23 years since the last taste of ultimate success, and the Carlton Football Club again holds in its possession a valuable asset. What an opportunity it has to potentially establish one of the best midfields in the competition and climb its way up the premiership ladder.

If we are to believe the bulk of recruiters, this crop of young men is the best since the Super Draft of 2001 and draws comparisons in the talent available. The No.1 pick is considered a clear standout as the best player in the TAC under-18 competition.

So when it’s reported that Carlton is considering swapping the No.1 pick for two picks in the top ten, you can’t help but wonder whether Carlton fans will still have the blues for years to come. Could such a decision really propel them even faster to success?

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History shows that Carlton’s decision-making is not strong in this space. They often get it wrong. However, their most recent picks, such as Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Zac Fisher and Paddy Dow are showing promising signs of being elite players over a long period.

Recruiting is not an exact science and there are no guarantees, but some clubs have a history of doing it better than others. The Carlton Football Club are in desperate need of midfield support for Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow, Zac Fisher and Paddy Dow.

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Sam Walsh, the player most recruiters consider to be the No.1 choice, is a ready-made AFL midfielder and looks destined to have a sustainable future at the elite level. If Carlton were to forgo this opportunity, they may be left with only key position draft options of which they already have a well-stocked supply.

Carlton should retain the No.1 pick and choose the best midfielder from the best crop of midfielders since the super draft of 2001. Perhaps then Carlton fans will be enjoying blue skies for years to come.

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