This is the 16th of 19 articles looking at the meta-results for both team and players, as collected from ELO-Following Football’s wide range of sources.
Presenting – the Sydney Swans.
The team started 0-6 and were written off for dead. I wrote a piece on the end of an era for the Hawks and Swans. I was wrong.
In the end, they finished sixth with a home-and-away record of 14-8, with a percentage of 127. Guess where they finished this year, and with what record?
Were high – it was widely assumed they would return to their pinnacle after a rough opening to the previous year. The consensus placement for 2018 was third place, behind Adelaide and GWS, and immediately in front of Richmond. Which just shows how amusingly non-psychic we all are.
Coming into the season, the players who were considered to be in the top 50 in the league by the AFLPA or The Roar included Lance Franklin (top five), Josh P Kennedy (top 20), Luke Parker (top 40), Dane Rampe, Isaac Heeney, and Dan Hannebury. Ironically, Jake Lloyd, who won their Best & Fairest this season, wasn’t even on this long list!
Sixth again with another 14-8 record! The differences, unfortunately, were negative; their percentage was down to 110, and they lost an elimination final rather than a semi.
But, they got there without having to stress through an 0-6 start!
More than two years since they were minor premiers, or even had the double chance. It was also three years ago that they were last in the Grand Final, losing to the miraculous Bulldogs.
It’s been seven years since their last flag, a 91-81 victory over the Hawks in 2012.
It’s been ten years since they last missed finals, the longest current streak and one of the longest in AFL history. If you delete 2009, their last miss before that was way back in 2002!
It’s been 25 years since they were last the poor kids on the block, wooden spoon in hand for the third consecutive year (1992-94).
Since 1996, they’ve only missed finals three times in 23 years. During the 23 years ending in 1995, they only made finals three times, dating back to their South Melbourne days.
According to our patented “ELO-Following Football” rating system, the team started the season with the second-best rating and ticking slightly up to lead the AFL with 76.6 after game one. 50 is average; ratings usually span the two-digit range.
They never rediscovered that lofty perch over the next four months, although they never fell below 66 – until that embarrassing loss to Gold Coast in Round 18 and subsequent beatdown by the Bombers the next Friday.
Those two games dropped them 15 points to 51, and it took until Round 23 to get back near their previous territory, sitting at 60.1 at season’s end in a clump of seven teams between 60-65.
Unfortunately, for them, that rout at the hands of their cross-town rivals in the elimination final knocked them to the bottom of that clump, and they sit at 53 and change over the long summer hiatus, in 10th.
The other rating systems were very similar all season. They started in the penthouse, wandered about the top half most of the season, stared into the abyss (below the Roos after Round 20 just about everywhere) and currently sit between 7th and 11th in every system.
Final record: 14-8.
Betting Line expectations: The Swans were favoured in 15 matches, underdogs in five, and were cast as even money in two.
ELO-Following Football forecasts: 15-6-1.
AFL.com.au game predictions: 16-6.
The Roar predictions: Our prognosticators also favoured the Swans 16 times out of 22, with the individual picks totalling 83-38.
“Pick-A-Winner” predictions: 14.5 – 7.5
The Age forecasters: 13 up, 8 down, and one split decision; individual picks totaled 171-93.
BetEasy “CrowdBet” percentages: The public was bullish on the Bloods, picking them in seventeen matchups and making them underdogs in just five.
My own game-by-game predictions pegged them at 15-7.
Going all the way back to March and Round 1, when Sydney was (un)fortunate enough to be the guest at the Eagles’ housewarming party, alongside 53,553 other people, most of whom seemed to express partiality regarding the Swans’ unwelcome attempts to spoil the festivities at Optus Stadium’s first home-and-away game.
With the Eagles in fine form, the crowd amped up to eleven, and Nic Naitanui demonstrating that 19 months away hadn’t diminished his skills in the least, Sydney would have been excused an early defeat in the most trying of circumstances.
Instead, behind an octet of goals by superstar Lance Franklin, the Swans were able to keep the future premiers at bay and win 115-86.
The win grew to be more and more impressive as the weeks went by and West Coast failed to lose a second game – until they came to the SCG in Round 13 and Sydney handed them their second loss of the season as well. Thus, Sydney accounted for one-third of West Coast’s losses this season.
That depends on whether you go by embarrassment or relevance. The loss at home to the Gold Coast Suns in Round 18 was about as big an upset as you could imagine, especially after a well-played and dominant first quarter.
They entered the game as 50-point betting favourites (our ELO-FF rating system had them as 58.2 points better at home than the Suns), and led by 29 after one quarter. Then the wheels came off.
Over the next two nightmarish hours, the 2012 champs scored only 2.12, while the team which has never even been to finals scored 11.11 to pass them by halftime and win going away, 88-64.
It was by far the biggest upset of the season, as measured by both our rating system and the embarrassment it caused in the footy community.
But of much more importance, in the long run, was the devastating four-goal meltdown they suffered at the hands of their younger brothers from across town, who rolled the dice by calling on Toby Greene and three other players who’d been out with injuries, skipping the usual ease-in-via-the-reserves treatment.
After a Tom Papley goal in the early second quarter put the Swans up one point, they went goalless over the next 72 minutes of game time before putting two meagre garbage-time goals on the board near the final horn, punctuating their 79-30 loss and the season.
“Until they remember why they paid Buddy that huge salary, they’re doomed to mediocrity.”
1. Lance Franklin – 438 points (6th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Third. Received 16 Brownlow votes; most of any Swan.
Last year’s result: First (4th overall); also 1st (2nd overall) in 2016.
Notable games: Four dominant games (in Round 1, Round 12, Round 20 and Round 22), and three prominent games (Round 3, Round 9, and Round 17).
All-Australian Captain and half-forward; ELO-FF Top 22, First team forward.
2. Jake Lloyd – 258 points (30th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Won his first Best & Fairest medal this season. Also received six Brownlow medal votes, tied for fourth most on the club.
Last year’s result: Fifth (91st overall).
Notable games: One dominant game (Round 9), two prominent games (Round 13, Round 23), and two notable games (Round 21-22).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
3. Josh P Kennedy – 224 points (47th overall). Also fourth in points during finals for Sydney.
Best & Fairest finish: Fifth. Received six Brownlow medal votes, equal fourth most on the club. [Unofficially the most valuable player – when he was missing, they usually lost…]
Last year’s result: Second (24th overall), and fourth (13th overall) in 2016.
Notable games: Two dominant games, in Round 6-7, one prominent game (Round 15), and two notable games, in Round 12-13.
Josh Kennedy of the Swans celebrates with team mate Lance Franklin. (AAP Image/David Moir)
4. Luke Parker – 210 points (51st overall). Fifth in points for finals among Sydney players.
Best & Fairest finish: Second. He was also second in Brownlow votes, with ten.
Last year’s result: Third (28th overall); Parker was second (and third leaguewide) in 2016.
Notable games: Three dominant games (Round 1, Round 8, and Round 22), and one notable game (Round 11).
5. Isaac Heeney – 201 points (54th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Fourth. Received seven Brownlow votes, good for third on the team.
Last year’s result: Sixth (103rd overall).
Notable games: One dominant game (Round 12), one prominent game (Round 21), and two notable games (Round 10 and Round 17).
Recognised with the AFL Mark of the Year.
6. Callum Sinclair – 140 points (80th overall). Third in points during finals for Sydney.
Best & Fairest finish: Ninth; also named most improved.
Last year’s result: Twelfth.
Notable games: One prominent game (Round 12) and two notable games (Round 6 and Round 11).
7. Ben Ronke – 107 points (106th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: not in top ten
Last year’s result: none (rookie).
Notable games: One dominant game (Round 8) and one prominent game (Round 17).
8. Dane Rampe – 104 points (111th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Sixth.
Last year’s result: Seventh.
Notable games: One notable game, in Round 20.
9. George Hewett – 96 points (121st overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Seventh.
Last year’s result: 19th.
Notable games: None.
10. Aliir Aliir – 72 points (183rd overall) Fifth on the team in points during finals.
Best & Fairest finish: not in top ten.
Last year’s result: 30th
Notable games: none.
Aliir Aliir. (AAP Image/Rob Blakers)
Sydney had six top 100 players and 11 top 200 players in the 2018 ELO-FF meta-rankings. Averages would be 5½ and 11, respectively.
Honourable mentions
Harry Cunningham – 39 points (17th place). Tenth in Best & Fairest voting; voted Clubman of the Year. Second in points during finals for Sydney.
Heath Grundy – 45 points (14th place). One notable game (Round 13).
Jarrad McVeigh – 70 points (11th place). Eighth in Best & Fairest voting; also, one notable game (in Round 9).
Tom Papley – 38 points (18th place). Highest point total for Sydney during finals.
In: Ryan Clarke (from North Melbourne), Jackson Thurlow, Daniel Menzel (from Geelong).
Gone: Dan Hannebery, Gary Rohan.
Current list of draft picks: 26, 33, 38, 39, 40 (essentially, five second-round picks – back-up players – unless that ends up being bundled into an academy lad), and 88.
Backs: Aliir Aliir, Harry Cunningham, Heath Grundy, Jake Lloyd, Jarrad McVeigh, Lewis Mellican, Dane Rampe, Nick Smith.
Midfielders: Oliver Florent, Isaac Heeney, Kieren Jack, Zak Jones, Josh Kennedy, Callum Mills, Luke Parker.
Rucks: Callum Sinclair, Sam Naismith.
Forwards: Lance Franklin, Will Hayward, George Hewitt, Tom McCartin, Tom Papley, Sam Reid, Ben Ronke.
Nothing much has changed in “Greater Eastern Sydney”. Like the American Republican party, the Sydney Swans have their fortunes tied to the one man to whom they have given the largest part of their fortune. In Sydney’s case, that’s Lance Franklin.
If Horse sets up the forward line to make maximum use of the fact they possess the most freakishly athletic forward in footy history, Buddy can hit the century mark and the Swans can make top four and dream of another flag.
If not, it’ll feel like another wasted season, going out in the first week of September at best. We’ll split the difference and say they’ll finish sixth, atop a tight pack of marginal contenders that will include Brisbane in 7th, Adelaide in 8th, and Essendon in 9th.
But the order is flexible, so we aren’t guaranteeing a finals berth (or result) for the Swans until we see Franklin’s form, fitness, and function.
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