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For the first time in The Mounting Yard’s history, we head to Sydney, and to one of Warwick Farm’s biggest meetings of the year, Inglis Millennium day.
It’s basically a day for the two and three year olds, with the Lonhro Plate, The Eskimo Prince Stakes, The Inglis three year old sprint, and the two million dollar Inglis Millennium.
The weather is predicted to be beautiful on Saturday, with a top of 31 degrees with a chance of rain later in the day. So get down to the track and see some of our fastest young horses do their work!
The Lonhro Plate is the first race on the card, at listed level for the two year olds over 1100 meters. The favourite punters will like the look of this first race, and so they should with TIME TO REIGN being the short priced favourite.
This colt out of Time for War has been extremely impressive in his first two career starts, winning by two lengths in the Kirkham Plate on debut, and backing that up with a tough win at Rosehill last start. He will have enough to speed to come across and sit on the pace, and he’ll be very hard to beat. STEEL DIAMOND is next best. This Filly out of Star witness has trialled really well leading up to her debut.
Her last trail where she was squeezed in between runners and still kept her composure to win was very promising, she won’t sit far off them and she could be the surprise packet on debut. SYLVIA’S MEMORY is probably overs in this race.
She won really well at Coffs Harbour on debut, before getting caught wide at Randwick and being hampered for the majority of the race. She finished seven lengths off Dawn Passage, but only four lengths off Aussie which seems a decent form line. From barrier one, she could give some cheek up front.
Recommended bet: Might be staying out of this one, if you want to go for some value, go each way on either #7 Steel Diamond or #5 Sylvia’s Memory.
The Tab Highway over 1200 metres is the second race on the card. Pretty interesting race with the two favourites being basically the only two in it according to the betting. I’m looking outside of them two and going with ALTERNATIVE FACTS at double figure odds here.
The I am Capitan form line seems to be the way to go in this race, and this mare stacks up well in that regard. She won two on the trot at Grafton and Armidale, before running fourth behind I am A cool Kid and I am Capitan when she really hit the line well over 1100 meters.
She should appreciate the step up to 1200 metres and with a lot of pace up front, she can storm all over them late. The odds on pop in NOBLE BOY is the big danger. He’s undefeated from three starts, winning at Albury and Grafton, before beating I am Capitan at Rosehill over this trip two months ago. He should settle back and appreciate the hot speed as well, just not sure I could take the shorts for him.
STAR BOY is the best of the rest. He was in terrific form, winning three from three last preparation, one at this track and over the same trip. He didn’t jump very well first up at Randwick on a soft track and had respiratory problems post-race. He will appreciate being back on top of the ground, and if he gets a nice sit he will be hard to hold out.
Recommended bet: Another race I could stay out of, #10 Alternative Facts represents the best value.
Pretty good race here in the third, a BM94 Handicap over 1000 metres for the sprinters. I’m disagreeing with the odds here and am thinking this is a two horse race, and one of those two Is SINGLE BULLET.
He’s had a lot of short breaks this preparation, but that hasn’t stopped him from racing brilliantly. He’s won two out of his last three, including a win over Jungle Edge and Frolic last start at Randwick.
He beat Bajadoz a few starts back who is only $6 here, so he probably represents some value at the current quote of $4. He’ll appreciate the leaders going helter skelter (Super Too and Memes) and from barrier eight will sit back, and produce another almighty finish down the outside. The other one of the two is SHE KNOWS.
She was far from disgraced in some of the better sprint races in the spring, finishing second to Eduardo in the Caulfield sprint, and finishing four lengths off Divine Quality at Flemington. This is probably a step back in class from those races, and from barrier one she draws to do no work.
A good ride from Bowman and a bit of luck getting out would see her go very close in this. MALAHAT is the only other slight danger. He was running placings last preparation behind the likes of Tango Rain and Easy Eddie, and resumed okay, hitting the line solidly at Randwick. Back to 1000 metres doesn’t make a lot of sense though.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #5 Single Bullet, and will be saving on #4 She Knows.
Very good race here, is the Eskimo Prince Stakes over 1200 metres for the three year olds. A few of the dominant two year olds are resuming here as three year olds, and I’m going with the local Sydney sider in GEM SONG. He’s going to appreciate the speed that will be put on from the two favourites, especially from their wide barriers. Hopefully they get in a duel for the lead and both of them tire out late.
The Kris Lees-trained colt had a brilliant first preparation though, beating Royal Celebration, who is fancied in the Inglis Sprint in the next race, and finishing second behind the very talented Mickey Blue Eyes before being spelled. From barrier one he will go back in the field, and with even luck he’ll be very hard to hold out down the straight. BRUTAL is the obvious danger.
He was the early favourite for most of the big races for his age group earlier in the spring, due to his excellent form, beating Tavisan, Leonardo Da Hinchi and Good ‘n’ Fast in consecutive starts. His win in the Exford plate before getting injured showed a lot of determination, and if had pinch even one cheap sectional somehow, he’ll be hard to run down.
SANDBAR is the best of the rest. He’s form last preparation was very good, beating Charge and only losing to the Autumn Sun by a length. The wide barrier is a concern, but if he can get a nice sit behind the leader, he can give it a fright in the concluding stages.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on #6 Gem Song.
The first million dollar race on the card comes here, in the Inglis three-year-old sprint over 1100 metres. It looks like the market has got this one right at the moment, and I’m pretty keen on the marginal favourite in FIESTA.
She ran brilliantly last preparation as a two year old, and she was unlucky in most of her starts. She could have easily won the Furious stakes when beaten a length behind Pure Elation when she couldn’t get a run at them. She then travelled three and four wide the entire race in the Flight stakes, when she was nabbed on the line by the fast finishing Oohood. She resumes here and finally draws a good gate to sit midfield, hopefully one off the fence, she’ll be very hard to beat.
ROYAL CELEBRATION is next best. He ran behind some very good horse’s last preparation, in the likes of Gem song and Yulong January. He then went on to win two in a row in a lesser grade. He’s had a few months here and he resumes in what is a winnable race. From barrier four he should sit just off the pace and at worse midfield, and with any luck he’ll be finishing very strongly. ESTIJAAB is the best of the rest.
Obviously he was brilliant as a two year old, winning the Golden Slipper and the Reisling Stakes, though it’s always a query on how they are going to come back as three year olds. From barrier eleven, she will come across and either lead or sit very handy. If her two year old form holds up, she’s hard to beat.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #8 Fiesta.
The group two Breeders Classic is the sixth race on the program, over 1200 metres for the Mares. I’m laying Champagne Cuddles in this race, just so we all know before I go into depth on the other runners. She hasn’t won at this class in her career, and she third behind Belwazi and Glenall doesn’t give me any more confidence of her winning.
Apart from that I think this race, is probably a race in two, and one of them is the Victorian raider in COOL PASSION. She really got going late in her preparation, in the spring. She beat Princess Posh in the HKJ Club Stakes, and then went on to beat First among Equals in the Kevin Hefferan stakes at Sandown before being spelled. She resumes her in what looks to be a pretty winnable race for her.
She trialled okay at Rosehill in the lead up to this, and she looks to get the sweet run from barrier two, very big chance. ALASSIO is the other of the two. She’s been going okay in lesser class than this, and her win against in good time last start was very impressive. She should go straight to the front in a moderately run race, and give them something to chase.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #2 Cool Passion.
We get to the feature of the day, the two million dollar Inglis Millennium for the two year olds. There’s been two heavily supported favourites in this race, and they are both good chances, but I’m going for a horse that has flown completely under the radar in PANDANO at double figure odds.
He’s way overs at the double figure quote currently available and it was too good for me to pass up. He won both his trials at Gosford and Wyong with absolute ease, and then came out and put on one of the better performances you’ll see on debut at Newcastle. Only exceptional horses win like that, and that is exactly what this colt is.
Bred superbly out of Dundeel and Milanesa, and from barrier three he maps to get the gun run in the race, big chance to knock off these favourites. DAWN PASSAGE is a big danger. He too won both of his trial with absolute ease – one at this track, and then destroyed some pretty smart types in the form of Aussie and Bivouac at Randwick on debut. He maps to get a very good run in transit and if he repeats his debut performance, he’ll be hard to hold out. The other equal favourite in ACCESSION is also a danger.
The wide barrier is a slight concern, but she’s been getting better with every run, and her last start Victory at Rosehill by four lengths was amazing. If Hughie can get her midfield or even on the speed with some cover, she’ll be right there until the end.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on #5 Pandano.
The Gardenia Handicap is the next race on the program. Some promising stayers resuming and some milers who are already deep into their preparations are clashing here. It looks like GRESHAM will be pretty hard to beat here.
He’s started to hit some form this preparation, the gelding out of the Waller Yard. He chased Tip Top home solidly three starts back, then got the break through win he needed two starts back over Sir Plush and New Universe on the Kensington track. He hit the front last start at the two hundred metre mark, but New universe got the better of him there, and they seem the two that will fight it out again here.
He maps to get a beautiful run just behind the speed from barrier one, and as long as he brings his best, he’ll be winning.
NEW UNIVERSE is again the big danger. Barrier two isn’t ideal considering he is a get back and run on type of horse, but he really hit some form in his last two runs, running behind Gresham two starts back and then getting the better of him last start. If the leaders put the pace on up front and he gets some luck, he’ll be running on strongly.
TANGLED is next best, not sure how he is favourite though. Has had three tries at the distance for only one win, but he maps well from barrier seven to sit midfield off the fence, and he should be better for his first up run.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #8 Gresham.
We have a Benchmark 78 handicap over the mile here in the lucky last on the program. Very open race with a lot of horses having claims, though I think I’ve found some value and am pretty keen on LOVESHACK BABY in the last. He had been running really well this preparation, winning two on the trot at Kensington and Canterbury.
He beat Chalk at Kensington who has since won a race pretty similar to this, and his win at Canterbury was outstanding, travelling four wide the trip and still digging in to hold off the swoopers late. There looks to be a lot of speed on in this race, so from barrier nine he should be able to get a nice suck run in behind them, and he’ll be hard to hold out late. MATOWI is another one that will like the speed being on.
He looks like a horse that has been waiting to get out to the mile, and that’s exactly what he gets today. He’s won two out of his last three, including a really impressive win last start at Canterbury, where he looked the winner from about the 700 metre mark. From barrier one he will get back in the field, and with any luck he’ll be coming home strongly at them late.
Recommended bet; Decent each way bet on #3 Love Shack Baby.
BEST BET: Race 3 #5 Single Bullet.
SECOND BEST: Race 5 #8 Fiesta.
BEST VALUE: Race 9 #2 Love Shack Baby.