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The Mounting Yard: Hobartville Stakes day preview

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Roar Guru
21st February, 2019
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Saturday racing in Sydney is going to Rosehill this weekend, with an action packed nine race card in store for the punters.

There’s three races at group two level on the card, with the headline event the return of superstar The Autumn Sun in the Hobartville Stakes over 1400 meters.

The other two group two races are the Silver Slipper Stakes for the two-year-olds, led by raging favourite Tassort, and the Millie Fox Stakes over 1300 meters for the fillies and mares.

The bureau predicts a good day in Sydney, with a top of 23 degrees and sunny, so get down to the track and start punting.

Race 1

The TAB Highway class 2 Handicap is the first on the program, over 1100 meters. It shapes as a put in and take out job here, with the short-priced favourite in Burning Crown looking very hard to beat.

He looks above average this gelding, and both connections and jockey have a very high opinion of him. He’s won two out of only three career starts, winning at Gunnedah by six lengths to break his maiden, and then winning easily at Scone over the same trip he faces here.

He got on the wrong part of the track in a class 3 Highway last year, so he steps back in grade, maps beautifully to sit off the speed from barrier eight, and it’s hard seeing anything that will beat him in this field.

Heaven On Earth is one at big odds who can run a good race here. She’s been going well this preparation, winning two from four at tracks like the Sapphire Coast and Canberra, and that form seems to shape up well here.

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She gets in well at the weights, draws to do no work, and with even luck should be the one running on strongly late.

Gumshoe is the best of the rest. He’ll go to the front and give them something to catch in the run, but with basically even weights with the favourite, it’s hard to see him making an impression here.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No.2 Burning Crown.

Race 2

The group two Silver Slipper is the second on the card, and some could argue it has more talent in it than the Blue Diamond in Melbourne on the same day.

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Another race where the favourite punters will be licking their lips with Tassort at a short price looking very hard to beat. He trialled well in the lead up to his debut in the Golden Gift, and he was incredible in that race.

He won by five eased up on the line by McDonald and he looks set for Golden Slipper glory later in the autumn. He went well in a trial in the lead up to this, maps perfectly from barrier three, and it’s hard to see them getting very close to him.

Time to Reign looks like the quinella horse in this at double figure odds. He won the Kirkham impressively on debut, and then backed that up with another good win over Jonah after leading all the way.

He resumed at Warwick Farm on a heavy 8 and nothing went right for him. He couldn’t get across from the wide barrier, so he was caught wide and over raced significantly throughout the run. He’ll either lead today or get a sit behind the leader, and give them something to catch in the straight.

Born A Warrior is the best of the rest. An impeccably bred Colt out of the Hawkes yard who off trial form, shapes to run well here. There’s been good reports coming from the connections, and he draws to do no work. Outsider.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No.3 Tassort, going to quinella him with No.1 Time to Reign as well.

Race 3

We have a Benchmark 78 Handicap here in the third. Very open race this one with plenty having claims, but I’m siding with a Waller runner in the form of Star of the Seas.

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He’s putting together a pretty good resume this gelding, winning two from five and never missing the top three. He won two in a row last preparation at Warwick Farm and Canterbury respectively, before being spelled.

He then resumed really well behind Mossman George when he missed the kick over 1000 meters, and it was a really good effort to go as close as he did. From barrier seven he maps well in the run to get a lovely spot behind the pace, and barring bad luck he should prove hard to beat.

I Got You is the main danger. He’s flying under the radar this horse, and represents pretty good each way value at the double figure quote. He was running really well in rating 75 races in New Zealand, before coming to Melbourne and putting in a really good effort resuming behind Mystyko and Redcore.

He did his best work late in that race, and he should relish the rise to the 1350 meters today. Hard to beat.

The favourite Archedemus is the best of the rest. He went really well in the country, winning two in a row at Wyong and Kembla Grange, before putting in another good effort at Warwick Farm, winning by a length over 1300 meters.

He’s got a flawless second up record, and from barrier one he should put himself on the speed and have every chance in the run.

Recommended bet: Going each way on both No.9 Star of the Seas and No.8 I Got You.

Race 4

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The James Ruse Handicap is the fourth on the program, over 1500 meters. There’s a few returning stayers in this race, which makes it a lot harder to sort through.

The favourite in Seaway looks pretty hard to beat here though. He has brilliant form lines for this, and more to the point, this is actually his ideal distance.

He finished second in the Queensland Guineas behind Sambro last preparation, and then finished just under three lengths off them in the Sunshine Coast guineas, which is obviously a very good form line for this race.

He resumed at this track over the same trip a few weeks ago and won very easily over a handy type in Smartedge, and from barrier seven he maps perfectly in the run. Is short enough, but very hard to beat.

McCreery looks the danger at big odds in the Winx colours. He ran fourth in the Neville Selwood last preparation behind Arbeitsam, and then cam home strongly to finish a length off Kingsguard and Ecuador in the Hawkesbury cup over the mile.

He generally goes well first up, winning three from eight with two placings, and the wetter it gets, the more he will shorten. Could be the blowout.

Mask of Time is the other danger. He’s untested at this distance, but he ran really well in the spring, winning the Coongy Classic in a dead heat with eventual group one winner Best of Days, and then just missing at this track behind Red Excitement.

He’ll go straight to the front in a race without any speed, and he could be very hard to run down if they give him an easy lead.

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Recommended bet: Win bet on No.7 Seaway, but it’s worth saving on No.3 McCreery.

Race 5

The feature of the event comes early here in the fifth race, with the return of superstar The Autumn Sun in the Hobartville Stakes at group two level for the three-year-olds.

The Autumn Sun won’t lose this race, and the only danger in the race was Gem Song, who has just been scratched. He might be the best horse in the world after Winx this Colt, his wins in both the Golden Rose and the Caulfield Guineas needed to be seen to be believed.

He came from last in the Golden Rose over 1400 meters to snatch Zousain on the line, and then gapped them in the Guineas winning by four lengths after travelling three wide the trip.

There looks to be some speed on up front with Vegadaze and Bondi, which will set it up perfectly for the champion to run all over them again.

If there is a danger, it’s the talented Colt out of the Ron Quinton Yard in Royal Celebration. He won two in a row before being spelled last preparation, one over Evalina at Randwick, and the other over Coterie at this track.

He’ll get the perfect sit behind the leaders, and if The Autumn Sun has a bad day, he could be the one to reap the rewards.

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Recommended bet: Load up on No.1 The Autumn Sun at the short quote. Looks a moral.

The Autumn Sun

James McDonald riding The Autumn Sun (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

Race 6

The three-year-old spark of life Handicap is next up, over 1100 meters. Very open race here with it being $5.50 the field.

I like Baller out of the Anthony Cummings stable at the current quote of $6.50. He went really well last preparation, winning two from four and running second at Rosehill. His win over Discussions at Kensington was extremely impressive, winning by three lengths after stalking the leader for the entirety of the race.

He got run down after trying to lead all the way over 1400 meters at this track, but he gets back to a more suitable trip at the 1100 meters today. He maps perfectly to get the gun run stalking the leaders, and if he improves even marginally on his form of last preparation, he’ll be hard to beat here.

Wagner is the main danger. He won two in a row last preparation in Sydney, before going to Melbourne to have a crack at the big races. He ran four lengths off Native Soldier in the Caulfield Guineas prelude, and then was really impressive at Moonee Valley coming home on the inside when nobody could do it all day.

He resumes here and is drawn wide, but if Collett can get him across or even get some cover, he’ll be the one storming home fresh.

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Golden Tycoon is the best of the rest. He’s only had the two career starts, but has really good from lines for this race. He won by two lengths in front of Cloak at Canterbury on debut, and then ran half a length off Sandbar and Charge in the Rosebud. He’s trialed well in the lead up to this race, and he’ll give them something to catch.

Recommend bet: Each way bet on No.9 Baller.

Race 7

We get to the other feature of the day, and probably the best race on the card, which is the group two Millie Fox Stakes over 1300 meters.

Moss Trip has excellent form lines for a race like this, and has brilliant finishing power, to capitalise on the pace that will be set up front.

She won both the James Carr and the Inglis three-year-old guineas at Scone last prep, before going to Brisbane and finishing half a length away in the Dane Ripper Stakes.

She was incredibly unlucky in the group one Tatt’s Tiara behind Prompt Response and Shillelagh, before being sent to the paddock. She trialled really well at this track about a week ago, and she’s two from three first up.

With even luck in the run, she looks great value at the each way quote.

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I was on Cool Passion in the Breeders Classic a fortnight ago where she narrowly went down to Champagne Cuddles, and it’s worth sticking with her again here. She won two group three races in the spring last year, and she generally gets better as her preparation increases. She draws all the favours and will be hard to hold out.

The favourite I am Serious is next best. She’s an impressive mare, evident by her going down by under half a length to Avillius twice last preparation, and then winning the Angst Stakes before being spelled. She has an okay first up record, and she draws well to get a nice run behind the leaders. Short enough though at the moment.

Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.9 Moss Trip, but No.5 Cool Passion is worth saving on.

Race 8

The Parramatta Cup, at listed level over 1900 meters is the next on the card. Not a great renewal of the Cup, but there is still a winner to be found.

Pretty keen on Samadoubt here, to win two in a row. He was building well before last starts win, getting pipped by onslaught over 1400 meters and fading to finish fourth behind New Universe at Randwick.

He got to dictate the terms at Warwick Farm, and he looks set to replicate that here. There’s absolutely no pace in the race apart from him, so he should be able to dictate the speed, and give a big kick in the straight. Will be hard to go past.

Age Of Fire at the double figure quote seems a danger. He’s been running well in Melbourne, finishing under two lengths off Manuel in the Kilmore Cup, who went on to win the C.F Orr a fortnight ago.

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He draws perfectly to sit on the speed or midfield and do no work in the run, and he should have plenty left in the tank late in the race.

Gresham is the best of the rest. He’s been very consistent this preparation, placing in every start, and winning the Warwick Farm Mile over Sir Plush. He maps brilliantly to get a nice sit on the leader, and if he can see out the 1900 meters, he’ll go close.

Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.10 Samadoubt.

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Race 9

The lucky last on the program is a Benchmark 94 for the four-year-olds and up over 1100 meters. Very open race this one and my best value selection comes in the last, in the form of Latin Boy.

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This Richard Freedman trained gelding has been building steadily throughout her preparations, and he could get his biggest win to date here. He won a BM 80 handicap last preparation at Newcastle, and then backed up by finishing four lengths off Dothraki in a group three.

He went to the Gold Coast and ran in the Bat out of Hell, where he was held up for the majority of the straight, and still finished under two lengths away fifth. He resumed in the same race as a few of these in this race did, and just got too far back.

He clocked great last 200 meter sectionals, and if he’s a bit closer today, there’s nothing to say he can’t pinch this.

She Knows is the main danger. She ran under a length away from the very talented Eduardo in the Caulfield Sprint, and then got no cover down the straight at Flemington. She resumed poorly like she usually does, but she goes a lot better second up, winning two from three.

She maps well to get a lovely run just off the pace, and she should have plenty to give in the straight.

All Too Royal is the best of the rest. He’s been in super form, winning three from three, including a very tough win over Maximus last start. He draws out wide which is a concern, but if Dolan can get him across without spending much energy, he’ll be in it for a long way.

Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.12 Latin Boy.

Best bet: Race 2 No.3 Tassort
Second best bet: Race 6 No.9 Baller
Best value: Race 9 No.12 Latin Boy

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