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Super Rugby: The super stats Round 2 wrap, Round 3 preview

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Roar Rookie
1st March, 2019
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The Algorithm had a decent weekend in Round 2, correctly calling 5 from 7 matches, but some of the margins were a little out.

Some of the sides have had fairly major changes during the off season, so it will take a while for this to filter properly into the Algorithm.

Round 2 debrief
Firstly, let’s have a look at how our Algorithm’s predicted results stacked up against reality.

Very few foresaw the Brumbies trampling the Chiefs by 37 points – probably not even the Canberrans themselves – but full credit to the Australian outfit for a magnificent performance.

Super Rugby: Predicted vs actual (Round 2)
Season accuracy: 10 from 14 (71%) Season margin error: 14.36
Weekend accuracy: 5 from 7 (71%) Weekend margin error: 13.71
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin error
Highlanders 36 38 Yes 14
Reds 31 19
Brumbies 54 29 No 43
Chiefs 17 35
Crusaders 38 29 Yes 7
Hurricanes 22 20
Jaguares 27 35 Yes 8
Bulls 12 28
Sunwolves 30 21 Yes 5
Waratahs 31 27
Sharks 26 26 Yes 11
Blues 7 18
Stormers 19 27 No 8
Lions 17 33

Highlanders v Reds
What’s up with the Highlanders this season? Leaving it late, again, winning the game in the 75th minute with a try from Dilion Hunt. However Shannon Frizell was the star of the show, scoring a brace and taking his tally to three tries in two games in 2019.

Sunwovles v Waratahs
The Waratahs were on the right side of a one-point win this time around, beating the Sunwolves in Japan. The home side will be thinking what could have been after again coming out of the blocks fast in the first ten minutes.

Crusaders v Hurricanes
This one set a new record in Super Rugby with the Crusaders winning a 17th straight game. The final score was 38-22 and could have been more with the Cantabrians being a total of 31 points ahead before the ‘Canes put any points on the board. But we’re not surprised they put on this masterful performance!

Brumbies v Chiefs
The Brumbies absolutely stomped all over the Chiefs winning 54-17 (33-10 HT) scoring eight tries to two. This was the best performance we’ve seen from the Canberra outfit in years and with superstar David Pocock out with concussion it certainly didn’t slow them down at all. The Chiefs have now lost two on the trot.

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Sharks v Blues
The Sharks are top of the South African Conference after winning 26-7 against the Blues. The Blues sadly didn’t show up as much as we thought they would with the South Africans winning by 11 more points than expected. We were excited to see what the Blues could show after narrowly losing to the Crusaders in Round 1. Hopefully they can kick on from this.

Stormers v Lions
The Stormers have a win after the hiding they got in Round 1, albeit by taking the lead in the 85th minute (there seems to be a trend of last-minute wins this season!)

Jaguares v Bulls
We were a bit worried about the Jaguares this game, especially after the Bulls won 40-3 against the Stormers in Round 1, however the Algorithm showed the faith in the Argentinian outfit was warranted as they won and won comfortably. They’ll be feeling confident against a Blues side travelling to Buenos Aires this weekend.

Round 2 matches and predictions
Here are the Algorithms predictions for the second round of Super Rugby.

The Algorithm’s Predictions: Super Rugby Round 3
Season accuracy: 10 from 14 (71%) Season margin error: 14.36
Teams Predicted Score Chance of winning Prediction
Hurricanes 24 72.5% Hurricanes to win by 9
Brumbies 15 25.3%
Rebels 21 32.6% Highlanders to win by 9
Highlanders 30 67.4%
Jaguares 29 68.7% Jaguares to win by 7
Blues 22 29.3%
Sharks 23 68.5% Sharks to win by 5
Stormers 18 29.4%
Lions 35 84.2% Lions to win by 15
Bulls 20 15.4%
Chiefs 38 89.4% Chiefs to win by 23
Sunwolves 15 9%
Reds 22 24.2% Crusaders to win by 15
Crusaders 37 74.1%

Hurricanes v Brumbies
The Hurricanes are back in Palmerston North, New Zealand against a powerful Brumbies outfit and will hoping to be on the right side of the scoreline this time out.

Last ten games

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Hurricanes 10 4 6 0 250 248 40% 25.00
Brumbies 10 6 4 0 248 250 60% 24.80
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Date Home Score Away Score
30/6/18 Brumbies 24 Hurricanes 12
21/7/17 Brumbies 16 Hurricanes 35
21/4/17 Hurricanes 56 Brumbies 21
26/2/16 Brumbies 52 Hurricanes 10
27/6/15 Hurricanes 29 Brumbies 9
7/3/14 Hurricanes 21 Brumbies 29
31/5/13 Brumbies 30 Hurricanes 23
18/5/12 Hurricanes 25 Brumbies 37
9/4/11 Brumbies 17 Hurricanes 16
16/4/10 Brumbies 13 Hurricanes 23

The Algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 9, but if the Brumbies put in another performance like last week we could be in for another upset.

Rebels v Highlanders
The Rebels will be excited to see the Highlanders on their home turf this round. After their Round 1 win against the Brumbies, they will be feeling confident even though the Highlanders are two from two.

History

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Rebels 7 1 6 0 150 274 14% 21.43
Highlanders 7 6 1 0 274 150 86% 39.14
Date Home Score Away Score
14/7/18 Highlanders 43 Rebels 37
31/3/17 Highlanders 51 Rebels 12
26/3/16 Rebels 3 Highlanders 27
4/4/14 Highlanders 33 Rebels 30
12/7/13 Rebels 38 Highlanders 37
30/3/12 Highlanders 43 Rebels 12
15/4/11 Rebels 18 Highlanders 40

The Algorithm has the Highlanders to win by 9, but admittedly was quite far out with the Rebels in Round 1, so perhaps they can put in another storming performance and overturn the odds.

Chiefs v Sunwolves
This is an interesting match-up with both teams without a win, but with the Sunwolves coming mighty close in the last round against the Waratahs, they will be hoping to go one better this time around.

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History

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Chiefs 2 2 0 0 88 30 100% 44.00
Sunwolves 2 0 2 0 30 88 0% 15.00
Date Home Score Away Score
24/3/18 Sunwolves 10 Chiefs 61
29/4/17 Chiefs 27 Sunwolves 20

On home soil the Algorithm has the Chiefs to win comfortably by 23 points, and take their record to three from three against the Sunwolves.

Reds v Crusaders
The Reds will feel a little hard done by after their first run of the 2019 season ended with them just falling short against the Highlanders. They will be hoping to bounce back but might struggle nagainst a strong Crusaders pack.

Last ten games

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Reds 10 3 7 0 179 309 30% 17.90
Crusaders 10 7 3 0 309 179 70% 30.90
Date Home Score Away Score
11/3/17 Reds 20 Crusaders 22
6/5/16 Crusaders 38 Reds 5
8/5/15 Crusaders 58 Reds 17
11/5/14 Reds 29 Crusaders 57
20/7/13 Crusaders 38 Reds 9
6/5/12 Crusaders 15 Reds 11
9/7/11 Reds 18 Crusaders 13
29/5/11 Reds 17 Crusaders 16
19/2/10 Reds 41 Crusaders 20
8/5/09 Crusaders 32 Reds 12
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The Algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 15 away from home, but again perhaps is underestimating the Australian sides by not accounting for the off season changes. At home, the Reds will certainly be looking for a good performance and a win against top-ranked Crusaders would be a massive statement.

Lions v Bulls
With both teams on one win and one loss, they will be looking to push on in the South African conference and catch the Sharks. Both losses could be considered a bit of a shock (depending who you support obviously!) so will be hoping to set things right.

Last ten games

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Lions 10 6 4 0 336 249 60% 33.60
Bulls 10 4 6 0 249 336 40% 24.90
Date Home Score Away Score
14/7/18 Lions 38 Bulls 12
3/3/18 Bulls 35 Lions 49
20/5/17 Lions 51 Bulls 14
28/5/16 Bulls 20 Lions 56
2/5/15 Bulls 35 Lions 33
4/4/15 Lions 22 Bulls 18
31/5/14 Lions 32 Bulls 21
1/3/14 Bulls 25 Lions 17
14/7/12 Bulls 37 Lions 20
14/4/12 Lions 18 Bulls 32

The Algorithm has the Lions to win comfortably at home by 15 points however, so perhaps the Bulls will have to wait a little longer to for that next win.

Sharks v Stormers
The Sharks will be looking to extend their perfect run in 2019 at the top of the South African conference while the Stormers will be hoping to improve after the last-round win. Below are the recent matches between the two sides.

Last ten games

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P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sharks 10 5 5 0 214 247 50% 21.40
Stormers 10 5 5 0 247 214 50% 24.70
Date Home Score Away Score
27/10/18 Stormers 12 Sharks 17
29/9/18 Stormers 50 Sharks 28
7/7/18 Stormers 27 Sharks 16
21/4/18 Sharks 24 Stormers 17
28/10/17 Sharks 21 Stormers 33
14/10/17 Sharks 20 Stormers 31
26/8/17 Stormers 20 Sharks 21
27/5/17 Sharks 22 Stormers 10
3/9/16 Stormers 34 Sharks 27
12/3/16 Stormers 13 Sharks 18

The Algorithm has the Sharks to win by five, which is the tightest margin in this week’s predictions, so for the neutrals this might be the match to watch.

Jaguares v Blues
The Blues travel to Argentina to play the Jaguares, who recorded their first win last time out. The Blues are still winless in 2019, despite some good performances, and will need to start strong to get anything out of the game. It’s one win apiece in the previous matches, with Jaguares recording a first win on New Zealand soil in their last match against the Blues.

History

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Jaguares 2 1 1 0 36 37 50% 18.00
Blues 2 1 1 0 37 36 50% 18.50
Date Home Score Away Score
28/4/18 Blues 13 Jaguares 20
2/4/16 Blues 24 Jaguares 16

The Algorithm has the Jaguares to win by 7 at home, but no doubt the Blues will be looking for a rebound win to go with their improved form.

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