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The Mounting Yard: Mid-week racing at Kensington preview

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Roar Guru
5th March, 2019
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This week’s Sydney metro meeting heads to Randwick, and we’ll be racing on the Kensington track, which is the second largest track in Sydney.

We have an eight-race card in store, with the feature coming in race seven, which is a benchmark 76 handicap over 1400 metres. The bureau predicts it to be a very muggy day in the heart of New South Wales, with it being 35 degrees with rain predicted. Whether you’re at the track, or at work or university, there’s no reason not to have a punt!

Race 1
We kick off the day with a maiden handicap for the three-year-olds over 1550 metres. I like two horses in this race, so will be going pretty big investment wise in the first, and one of the horses is the marginal favourite in Amangiri. She’s obviously bred well this Filly out of the Hawkes Yard, being by All Too Hard and out of Secret Indulgence.

Her trial before debuting was really good to my eye, she wasn’t touched and pretty much kept pace with the rest of the field bar the talented Kolding. She then came out and impressed on debut, beating the rest of the field with ease, bar the winner in No Reward, who has since went on to place in a benchmark 70 rated race.

She hit the line strongly, and it looks like she will really appreciate the 1550 metres today. Maps well from barrier four and will be very hard to beat.

Sharapova is the obvious danger, and she’s worth having a saver on. She’s been interfered with in her last two starts at Canterbury and at this track, and she would have undoubtedly have finished closer if that wasn’t the case. She doesn’t map fantastically in the run, but she shouldn’t be too far away from them in this small field and, with even luck, she’ll be hard to hold out.

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Flying Legend is the best of the rest. He had good form lines last preparation behind Roheryn and Adana, but he wasn’t overly impressive first up, and I think the distance is a legitimate query.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No.4 Amangiri, with a saver on No.6 Sharapova.

Race 2
We’ve got a two-year-old handicap race here in the second, with some very progressive colts and fillies going around. Some who are hoping to push onto the big two-year-old races such as the Golden Slipper. I’ve found one who’s overs in the market here at $19 in the form of Stronger.

He won on debut at Kembla Grange with ease, before running just under three lengths to Athiri and Accession at Rosehill, in what was a very strong maiden. He then got beaten again by Accession at Randwick in the Inglis Nursery, before being given a three-month let-up.

The barrier is of no concern, as there should be at least five or six horses fighting for the lead, which should lead to him getting a good spot in the run, and in an open race he is a good bet for the punters on an each way basis.

Lubuk is the big danger. He came home well on debut at Doomben, before putting in a brilliant run coming from back in the field to finish second behind one of the Golden Slipper favourites in Exhilarates.

He trialled well in the lead up to this run, and he seems to be improving immensely in each run this preparation. He maps well to get a nice run off a very hot speed, and he’ll be hard to hold out.

Grand Zou is the best of the rest, and a win on debut wouldn’t surprise. He’s obviously bred well, being by Zoustar and out of Zarzuela, and his trial performance at the Gold Coast was outstanding. Toby Edmonds doesn’t bring them down for nothing, and he maps well from barrier four to try and lead them all the way. Good chance.

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Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.1 Stronger.

Race 3
We get out of the maidens and two-year-old races here, and are faced with a benchmark 64 handicap for the three-year-olds over 1150 metres. Really open race here and I’ve landed on Broken Arrows for David Pfieffer and Blake Shinn.

He ran behind one of the favourites here in Ligulate on debut at Kembla Grange over 1000 metres, but that was his only run in that preparation, and he’s come back in very good order this preparation. He broke his maiden resuming at Gosford over 1000 metres, and then looked the winner in a class 1 race before tiring late and getting nabbed on the line.

They ran very quick times in that class 1 race, and he had to sustain a long run, which probably ended in him losing. He should settle midfield off a solid tempo today, and he has the fitness edge over most of these. He’ll be hard to hold out.

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Partners is a big danger. He’s been really good in his last few runs, winning one and having two seconds. His win at Wyong was impressive over Mighty Marmalade, and he just couldn’t catch Silver Melody who had an easy lead out in front. From barrier two he maps well to sit just behind the leader in what will likely be Commute, and he’ll have the first crack at her in the straight.

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Evalina is the best of the fancied runners. She was running in better races than this last preparation, running behind the likes of Royal Celebration and I Like It Easy. She drops significantly in grade here second up after going down to Fiesta and Estijaab, and if she’s wound up she’ll be hard to beat.

Recommended bet: Going to go each way on both No.5 Broken Arrows, and No.3 Partners.

Race 4
The fourth on the card is a benchmark 70 handicap for the fillies and mares over 1250 metres. I’ve pretty much narrowed it down to two chances here, and I’m going to go with the one who is at the each way odds in I’m So Sweet. She went well last preparation, beating So Taken in a benchmark 66 at Rosehill, before going to Melbourne to run under three lengths off Beauty in the William Crockett Stakes.

She was outclassed in the Jim Beam stakes, running eight lengths behind Pohutukawa. She resumed well, chasing Royal Witness at this track over 1000 metres, and she should take a lot of benefit out of that run. She’ll appreciate getting out to 1200 metres, and she’s never missed the placings second up. She maps well from barrier six to get a lovely run off the two leaders, and she’ll be hard to hold out.

Kylease has been spruiked by most of the nation, and is the obvious danger. She trialled really well in the lead up to her debut run at Warwick Farm before narrowly missing against the talented Lashes, and then she went to Gosford and was far too good for them in a maiden.

This is obviously the toughest field she’s faced in her short career, which is why I can’t take the current quote of $3, but she maps beautifully to either lead or sit on the leaders back from barrier three, and she’ll be hard to beat.

Sundarbans is the best of the rest. She was going really well in these types of races in Melbourne, before being outclassed by the likes of Wild Planet and Ranier. She resumed well at Canterbury, and should be better for that run, but she’ll need to improve to threaten here.

Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.4 I’m So Sweet.

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Race 5
A colts and geldings benchmark 70 handicap comes here in the fifth on the program, over 1250 metres. It looks a pretty cut and dry race here, with the short priced favourite in Classique Legend looking very hard to beat.

He’s well bred, by Not A Single Doubt and out of Pinocchio, and he lived up to the expectations placed upon him on debut at this track, where he absolutely destroyed the rest of the field, winning by nearly three lengths eased up. He draws wide today, but he should have the speed to cross and sit on the speed, and he looks hard to beat in a very average race.

Seabrook runs and runs

(AAP Image/Rafal Kontrym)

Bucephalus looks to be the only danger. He won well on debut at Canterbury over 1100 metres, before being pulled up at Rosehill in a race against Vegadaze and Adana. He’s well bred, by Redoute’s Choice and out of Miss Stellabelle, and if everything is right physically, he could put some pressure on the favourite.

Level Eight is the best of the rest for any roughie punters. He ticks a lot of boxes here. He resumes here and he has a brilliant first-up record, winning one and having four seconds from six tries, and he’s also had three seconds from four tries at the distance. He drops in grade here and draws to do no work from barrier one. Not the worst.

Recommended bet: Would be staying out of this one. Can’t see any value on offer.

Race 6
The sixth on the program is a benchmark 70 handicap over 1100 metres. I’ve narrowed this down to two live chances, and will be backing both of them accordingly, but it’s pretty hard to go past the favourite in Wagner. He’s form from last preparation is excellent for a race like this.

He won two in a row at Canterbury, before going to Melbourne and being far from disgraced in both the Caulfield Guineas Prelude, behind Native Soldier, and then in the Red Anchor Stakes behind Charge and Ringrdingding.

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Admittedly, this isn’t his ideal distance, but he has won at the distance before, has never missed a placing fresh, and draws perfectly to get a nice sit on them in the run. Hard to beat.

Soul Star at double-figure odds is the big danger. Her form before coming to Sydney, against Crack the Code and Island Daze has obviously been franked, and her performances in Sydney have been good to. She ran under half a length off the front couple at Warwick Farm, and then was unlucky at Canterbury last start. She missed by 0.2 of a length, and she was blocked for a run at the top of the straight.

She maps perfectly from barrier four to get a nice sit on the front few who are expected to go quick, and she’ll be one of the ones winding up late. Mossman George is the best of the rest. He’s come back well this preparation, beating Star of the Seas resuming at this track, and then finishing a length off Royal Witness.

He maps well to get a nice run on the speed from barrier five, and he’ll be hard to run down.

Recommended bet: Win bet on No.5 Wagner, with a small saver on No.8 Soul Star.

Race 7
The feature of the card comes here in the seventh, with a benchmark 76 handicap over 1400 metres. It’s probably the most open race on the card, with plenty of live chances, but Tarbert looks like the best value currently, and is still at an each way quote.

He’s been in brilliant form this preparation, winning four from five including one second. Admittedly, he’s been winning them in a lesser grade than this, but his last start win at Coffs Harbour is hard to ignore. He beat his rivals by seven lengths that day over 1315 metres, and he looks like he will relish the small rise in distance to 1400 metres.

He maps well from barrier eight to get a nice sit in midfield, and he’ll be hard to hold out. The August is one of two main dangers. This Colt’s form from last preparation is very good for a race like this. He ran only a few lengths off the likes of Native Soldier, Brutal, and then finally finished down the track against The Autumn Sun in the Caulfield guineas. He resumed well at Canterbury, hitting the line well over 1200 metres, and he should relish the rise to 1400 metres today.

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His record second up is near perfect, and he maps really well to get a nice run behind the leaders from barrier seven. Hard to beat.

The Autumn Sun

(Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

The favourite in Desert Lord is the other danger, but I don’t think I could take him at the $3 quote. His win two starts back against Kolding was impressive after having to do some work early to sit on the pace, and he cost himself the race last start by over racing in the early stages. If he can improve his racing manners today, he’ll be incredibly hard to run down.

Recommended bet: Small each way bet on No.8 Tarbert. Hard race to judge.

Race 8
The ‘lucky last’ on the program is a benchmark 70 handicap over 1800 metres. I’ve gone for some value in the last, in the form of the Victorian in Free Fly Too. He’s well over the odds in the market here. He’s come back pretty well this preparation and was unlucky not to finish closer to Kazio at Sandown two starts back at benchmark 70 level.

He got checked for a run when he started to pick up, which of course knocked him off stride, and then he went to Seymour and got too far back over the mile, however, he charged home really well in the last 200 metres. He should relish the rise in trip to 1800 metres today, and I think the booking of McEvoy is a sign of intent. He draws to do no work, and with even luck he’ll be hard to hold out.

Fun Fact is one of the main dangers. He resumed at Canterbury over 1200 metres and was outsprinted in what was a pretty strong benchmark 70 race behind Handle The Truth and I am a Cool Kid. He then raced at Canterbury last start and was unlucky not win the race over 1550 metres.

He couldn’t get a run at them until it was too late, and he still managed to finish within half a length. He draws wide today, but he was going to go back in the field anyway, and he should appreciate the rise to 1800 metres. Good chance.

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Judge Judi is the last of the big dangers. She won well at Gosford in a class 1 race in front of Zavance, and then got pipped twice on the line at Canterbury in consecutive starts. She maps perfectly to get a nice run on the speed, and she will be in it for a long way.

Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.8 Free Fly Too.

Best bet: Race 1, No.4 Amangiri.
Second best bet: Race 6, No.5 Wagner.
Best value: Race 8, No.8 Free Fly Too.