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Super Rugby: The super stats Round 4 wrap, Round 5 preview

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Roar Rookie
13th March, 2019
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The algorithm came good for us last weekend with six out of seven correct, making up for the fiasco of the previous weekend. Phew. See below for the exact ins and outs of what went on.

Round 4 debrief

Again the New Zealand teams left it late with the 'Canes coming from behind to snatch the win. The Blues picked up their first win of the season and the Lions stopped their rot, taming the Jaguares.
Super Rugby: Predicted vs actual (Round 4)
Season accuracy: 19 from 28 (67.9%) Season margin error: 13.96
Weekend accuracy: 6 from 7 (85.7%) Weekend margin error: 9.43
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin error
Hurricanes 25 35 Yes 8
Highlanders 22 24
Rebels 29 23 No 8
Brumbies 26 28
Blues 28 29 Yes 6
Sunwolves 20 15
Bulls 37 28 Yes 20
Sharks 14 25
Lions 47 35 Yes 5
Jaguares 39 32
Waratahs 28 32 Yes 4
Reds 17 17
Crusaders 57 31 Yes 15
Chiefs 28 17

Hurricanes vs Highlanders
This was a close game between two very evenly matched teams.

Both teams have scored 85 points in their 2019 campaigns with the Hurricanes scoring one more try than their Southern counterparts, sitting on 12 tries to 11.

The Hurricanes scored a try from Ben Lam in the 70th minute to take the score 22 points a piece, but with Barrett missing the conversion, it was heart in the mouth rugby for both sets of fans. However, Barrett eventually sunk a penalty kick in the 81st minute to seal it for the Hurricanes at home.

Rebels vs Brumbies
Another close game with the Brumbies scoring in the 60th minute, making the score 26-15 with 20 minutes to go. The Rebels scored 2 quick tries in the 65th and 70th minutes to win 29-26 and take it away from the algorithm.

This was especially disappointing since the prevailing view seemed to be a heavy Rebels win, but I guess we’ll have to settle for a strong Brumbies performance as justification for a very weak “we told you so.”

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Crusaders vs Chiefs
Should we just hand the Crusaders the trophy now? They showed they mean business against a struggling Chiefs side, leading at one point 57-14 with ten minutes to go. However, the Chiefs made the score a little more presentable, scoring two quick tries at the end to make the score 57-28.

Blues vs Sunwolves
The Blues are on the board! Rieko Ioane was back to his usual self, scoring all 4 tries at home against the Sunwolves. The Blues will be on a bye next round which will help them prepare for a strong test against the Highlanders.

Waratahs vs Reds
The Waratahs took the game by the scruff of the neck, winning the match 28-17. The Reds are still waiting for their first win of the season and are sitting on one point (a losing bonus point) but will be looking hopefully for Round 5 against the Sunwolves.

Lions vs Jaguares
The Lions are back and fielded a young squad who have risen through their junior ranks. With the score 47-25 with ten minutes to go, the Lions took the foot off the gas and the Jaguares showed a little spirit taking a couple of tries and the final score to 47-39.

Bulls vs Sharks
The Bulls thumped the Sharks to take top spot on 13 points with the Sharks (now 11 points) picking up their second loss of the season. Handre Pollard of the Bulls is on fire at the moment sitting on a total of 74 points with the next top scorer Bonilla from the Jaguares on 36.

The South African Conference is looking really interesting at the moment with a difference of just five points between top and bottom spots. It’s still anyone’s game.

Round 5 matches and predictions

Here are the algorithms predictions for the fifth round of Super Rugby. Only six games this weekend.

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The Algorithm’s Predictions: Super Rugby Round 5
Season accuracy: 19 from 28 (67.9%) Season margin error: 13.96
Teams Predicted Score Chance of winning Prediction
Chiefs 25 51.3% Chiefs to win by 2
Hurricanes 23 47.4%
Brumbies 25 60.1% Brumbies to win by 3
Waratahs 22 38.5%
Stormers 32 75.7% Stormers to win by 7
Jaguares 25 23.3%
Sunwolves 34 52% Sunwolves to win by 2
Reds 32 45.6%
Highlanders 26 46.1% Crusaders to win by 3
Crusaders 29 52.6%
Lions 46 85.2% Lions to win by 15
Rebels 31 13.5%

Chiefs vs Hurricanes
The Hurricanes need to be careful of this game. It’s never easy to come into a game against an opponent at home who are still waiting on their first win and with the last ten results being 50-50, it could spell trouble.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Chiefs 10 5 5 0 207 224 50% 20.7
Hurricanes 10 5 5 0 224 207 50% 22.4
Date Home Score Away Score
7/20/2018 Hurricanes 32 31 Chiefs
7/13/2018 Chiefs 28 24 Hurricanes
4/13/2018 Hurricanes 25 13 Chiefs
6/9/2017 Hurricanes 14 17 Chiefs
3/10/2017 Chiefs 26 18 Hurricanes
7/30/2016 Hurricanes 25 9 Chiefs
4/23/2016 Hurricanes 27 28 Chiefs
6/13/2015 Chiefs 13 21 Hurricanes
5/16/2015 Hurricanes 22 18 Chiefs
7/4/2014 Chiefs 24 16 Hurricanes

The algorithm has Chiefs by 2. Not the best reading for our Wellington fans, and it has all the reading of a tight match. Could be a good one to watch for the neutrals.

Brumbies vs Waratahs
This has always been a classic Australian showdown and this should be no different with the way these two sides are playing. Below are the previous matches between these two sides.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Brumbies 10 5 5 0 210 231 50% 21
Waratahs 10 5 5 0 231 210 50% 23.1
Date Home Score Away Score
7/14/2018 Waratahs 31 40 Brumbies
3/31/2018 Brumbies 17 24 Waratahs
3/18/2017 Waratahs 12 28 Brumbies
4/16/2016 Waratahs 20 26 Brumbies
3/4/2016 Brumbies 32 15 Waratahs
5/1/2015 Brumbies 10 13 Waratahs
3/22/2015 Waratahs 28 13 Brumbies
7/26/2014 Waratahs 26 8 Brumbies
6/28/2014 Waratahs 39 8 Brumbies
3/15/2014 Brumbies 28 23 Waratahs
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The algorithm has the Brumbies to win by 3. Like the Hurricanes and Chiefs, both teams are on 5 wins apiece in their last 10 games head to head, and with the Brumbies at home the Waratahs will have to be on top of their game to turn them over.

Stormers vs Jaguares
Although the Stormers are bottom of the South African conference, as we noted before there is only a five-point difference between all five sides. The Stormers had a bye, so will be refreshed and playing at home could make it difficult for the Jaguares.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Stormers 4 3 1 0 87 78 75% 21.75
Jaguares 4 1 3 0 78 87 25% 19.5
Date Home Score Away Score
6/30/2018 Jaguares 25 14 Stormers
2/17/2018 Stormers 28 20 Jaguares
3/4/2017 Stormers 32 25 Jaguares
3/26/2016 Jaguares 8 13 Stormers

The algorithm has Stormers by seven, meaning they can jump from fifth to second if results go their way (technically they could go first, but it would require an enormous points difference).

Sunwolves vs Reds
Could this be the match of the round? The Sunwolves have been there or thereabouts in a lot of their matches so far. Although they lost against the winless Blues last round they have been quite strong and have improved vastly. Playing at home against a team desperate for a win could make things interesting.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sunwolves 3 1 2 0 115 111 33% 38.3
Reds 3 2 1 0 111 115 67% 37
Date Home Score Away Score
7/13/2018 Reds 48 27 Sunwolves Super Rugby Suncorp Stadium
5/12/2018 Sunwolves 63 28 Reds Super Rugby Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium
5/21/2016 Reds 35 25 Sunwolves Super Rugby Brisbane
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It’s bad news for the Queenslanders as the algorithm has Sunwolves by 2. But it’s tight, clearly, so this is another game that could go either way.

Highlanders v Crusaders
Battle of the South! Always brings out the best of both teams, however the Crusaders have won 70 per cent of the last ten matches against the men from the deep south.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Highlanders 10 3 7 0 213 272 30% 21.3
Crusaders 10 7 3 0 272 213 70% 27.2
Date Home Score Away Score
7/6/2018 Crusaders 45 22 Highlanders
3/17/2018 Highlanders 25 17 Crusaders
7/22/2017 Crusaders 17 0 Highlanders
6/3/2017 Crusaders 25 22 Highlanders
3/4/2017 Highlanders 27 30 Crusaders
5/13/2016 Highlanders 34 26 Crusaders
4/11/2015 Crusaders 20 25 Highlanders
2/21/2015 Highlanders 20 26 Crusaders
7/12/2014 Crusaders 34 8 Highlanders
5/24/2014 Highlanders 30 32 Crusaders

Could the Crusaders hit their first blip of the campaign? The algorithm thinks (probably) not, with the Crusaders forecast to win by 3.

Lions vs Rebels
The Lions haven’t fully shown their potential yet, but will have taken the positives from a fairly young Lions outfit winning at home last weekend. So will they pick the game young team against an undefeated Rebels team? Or will they resort back to some of their more experienced players? Time will tell.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Lions 4 4 0 0 138 75 100% 34.5
Rebels 4 0 4 0 75 138 0% 18.75
Date Home Score Away Score
5/6/2017 Rebels 10 47 Lions
3/20/2015 Rebels 16 20 Lions
7/4/2014 Lions 34 17 Rebels
7/7/2012 Lions 37 32 Rebels
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The algorithm has The Lions to win by 15, so thinks it’s pretty comfortable. However, it’s still adjusting to the improved Rebels side that have turned up this year, and the slightly weaker Lions, so this game could be a little more interesting than suggested

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts. Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and much else besides.