At Following Football, we start with the end-of-year ratings from the prior season and make some standard minor adjustments.

There is a team of four of us who do these ratings across a variety of sports, mostly forms of football and basketball. Hence the “we”, although I handle most of the footy numbers.

Those adjustments come from factoring in obvious changes in a team over the off-season – retirements, trades, free agent movement, coaching changes. In a zero-sum rating system, it’s important that any changes we make balance out; often, our method to assure this involves making team-by-team adjustments, and then increasing or reducing EVERY team’s rating by their share of the margin we’ve over- or under-shot.

The AFL average rating is always 50.

Another thing we do in the off-season is a regression to the norm of 20 per cent for every team. Since 50 is the average rating, we take the distance each team sits from 50 and reduce that distance by 20 per cent. Low teams rise slightly, leading teams sink slightly. Why? Because history shows it works, that’s why.

We add three pre-season factors. One is watching what the teams and players look like in the JLT exhibition games. While pre-season records bear no resemblance to the regular ladder, this year’s two-game pre-season with rule changes to adapt to means that we’re seeing more “realistic” footy in March.

We also look at the ratings from other systems like FMI, Wooden Finger, Graff, Massey, and Squiggle. While we’re confident in our numbers, if we have a team severely out-of-line with everyone else, it’s worth taking another look to see if our numbers are justifiable.

Finally, we do the same with the professional point spreads for the first two or three rounds, adjusting if necessary.

Here are the ELO-Following Football ratings for each of the eighteen teams as they begin the 2019 season, some background for those ratings, and how those ratings play out in the 22-game season in simulations. I’m inserting my own observations too, but those plus a dollar might get you a coffee at Macca’s.

Gold Coast Suns – ended last year at 6.9, regressed to 15.4.

The defecting players and subsequent reboot lowered that number a couple of points. Personally, I’ve liked what I’m seeing in the JLT from the Suns: Jarrod Witts looks good in the ruck, and ‘Two-Metre’ Peter Wright looks bulkier and faster, somehow. But don’t let Charlie Ballard kick out of the goal square anymore.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 12.9, although I suspect it’ll rise a little during the season.
Projected W-L record: 2-20 (wins in Round 4, Round 17), 1-1 record in games projected to be within a goal; 17th place.

Carlton Blues – ended last year at 0.1 (they had a rough ending to 2018!), regressed to 10.1

The Blues look much stronger already, and the oddsmakers agree. That raises their rating above that of the Suns, and signs point to a much better team in 2019. I still think the Suns will win the spoon this year, despite our ratings. Is it possible there won’t be any embarrassing teams this season?

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 19.6, and probably going up.
Projected W-L record: 1-21 (win in Round 18), 0-1 in games projected to be within a goal; 18th place, despite the higher rating than Gold Coast. Personally, I’m thinking four wins.

Fremantle Dockers – ended last year at 20.1, regressed to 26.1.

That number deserves a raise from the new folks they’ve gathered, although nothing we’ve seen this month demands too much quite yet. Ross the Boss was right to be concerned about the JLT schedule for his club, and we probably haven’t seen their best yet.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 28.1
Projected W-L record: 4-18, 3-2 in games within a goal; 16th place.

Western Bulldogs – ended last year at 39.7, regressed to 43.6.

There wasn’t much confidence in the Bulldogs going into the off-season, Round 23 notwithstanding, and nothing has come out of the two JLT performances to suggest that they’ve gained ground on the field. Losing to the Suns and Saints will do that.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 36.3
Projected W-L record: 4-18, 0-4 in games within a goal; 15th place.

St Kilda Saints – ended last year at 30.7, regressed to 34.6.

That said, the Saints have demonstrated a recommitment to the kind of on-ball pressure that made them successful before their freefall last season.

There isn’t a lot concrete to place positive spin on their starting rating just yet, but if they play the first month like they’ve played the practice games, they’ll return to a league-mean rating of 50 soon enough.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 38.1
Projected W-L record: 6-16, 0-1 in games within a goal; 14th place.

Brisbane Lions – ended last year at 39.5, regressed to 43.4.

The Lions seemed a powerhouse during their two JLT games – the cohesiveness they exhibited with the extra year of growth as teammates, plus the increasingly beneficial addition of the aptly-named Jarryd Lyons, must give pause to those teams in the middle of the pack, if not the bottom of the eight.

An aside: I’m such a visual person that I didn’t associate Jarryd’s last name with his new team until it was pointed out aloud during a Brisbane broadcast this month. The brain is an odd piece of meat.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 46.1, with a bullet.
Projected W-L record: 10-11-1 (and that’s assuming no rating improvement), 5-1 in close games. 9th place.

North Melbourne Kangaroos – ended at 50.6, regressed down to 50.5.

Losing to the Saints and the Power is a bad way to impress fans hoping to see you take the next step forward in 2019. Adding Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard was a plus, as they showed against their old team, yet the team itself fell convincingly on both occasions. It’s impossible at this instant to keep them above Port Adelaide.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 49.0
Projected W-L record: 8-14, 4-3 in games within a goal. 13th place.

Port Adelaide Power – ended last year at 49.0, regressed to 49.2.

Port showed signs of growth this month, especially against fellow mid-pack North Melbourne last Saturday. It remains to be seen how much this growth is cancelled out by similar growth around them, however. I will not be surprised if they’re more competitive in 2019 than they ended 2018.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 49.7
Projected W-L record: 9-13, 3-3 in games within a goal. 11th place.

Hawthorn Hawks – ended at 59.3, regressed to 57.4.

The loss of Tom Mitchell for the year by itself is going to knock Alastair Clarkston’s team down a notch or two. It’s hard what to make of their loss to Richmond – the first half was that of a dominant, early-decade Hawks team, while the second half looked like the ‘old’ Hawks team we keep fearing will rear its head.

It’s hard to know how much of their loss to the Lions to attribute to them, and how much is the advancement of their opponent. Still, without their Brownlow medal winner, they’ve got to start lower than they finished 2018.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 52.4
Projected W-L record: 8-13-1, 0-4 in games within a goal. 12th place.

Sydney Swans – ended at 53.3, regressed to 52.6.

Who knows for sure? They lost to a Giants team that most of us were sure was better than the Swans this year; they handled a Suns team that most of us were sure was weaker than the Swans are.

But there were some real positive signs from the middle of the roster in both games, especially from the midfield and forward line. Tom Papley looks particularly great.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 53.1
Projected W-L record: 10-12, 3-6 in games within a goal (so, lots of room for variability either way). 10th place.

Essendon Bombers – ended at 63.2, regressed to 60.6.

Unlike some of the teams in their peer group, they’ve not been impressive in the pre-season, but they’re also missing a handful of players right now. That’s still not good, because it means that at the very least, those missing players won’t be in game shape in Week 1, and might even not be ready to play at all.

Is it 2-6 all over again? Could be, but we have them 4-4 after eight games.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 58.6
Projected W-L record: 13-9, 1-3 in games within a goal. 8th place.

Adelaide Crows – ended at 60.4, regressed to 58.3.

They looked very sharp in the two exhibition games against similar teams (Power and Giants) and they’re showing every indication that they’ll be more like 2017 than 2018 this year. If they have even an average injury year (as opposed to last season), they seem finals bound. At least.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 59.9
Projected W-L record: 15-7, 5-3 in games within a goal. (Simulations have them starting 8-1, then losing four of the next five.) 7th place.

GWS Giants – ended at 66.3, regressed to 63.0.

Nothing I saw in pre-season led me to think any better or any worse about the charcoal and orange. They’ll be competitive against everyone, but it’s hard to see them seriously threatening the top of the ladder.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 62.5
Projected W-L record: 16-6, 5-3 in games within a goal. (We see them starting 1-3 but winning the last six of the season.) 5th place.

Geelong Cats – ended last season with the highest rating in the ELO-FF ladder, 76.3, which regressed to 71.5.

That high rating came from those two hundred-point victories over bottom four teams late in the season, wins that motivated us to adjust our circuit-breakers for this season. Do they look like the best team right now? Probably not: placing them there contradicts everyone else’s rankings – and my own opinion as well. (And West Coast’s, too, after their week one win.)

The odds makers made us adjust the rating a couple more points downward as well. But their schedule will help their record.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 63.5.
Projected W-L record: 18-4, 6-2 in games within a goal. The ELO-FF numbers give them ten straight wins to end the season as it stands – I disagree. In fact, I have the Cats 12th on my list. 4th place.

Collingwood Magpies – ended last year at 68.9, regressed to 65.1.

Their victory in Western Australia over the Dockers looked impressive, their play against Carlton less so. But Dayne Beams seems to fit into the midfield seamlessly, which was my big concern.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 64.6
Projected W-L record: Beneficiaries of an easy schedule in 2018, ELO-FF has them going 15-6-1 this year, with a 1-3 record in close games. 6th place.

Melbourne Demons – ended last year at 72.2, regressed to 67.8.

That’s about right, although they gave the definite impression of “playing to their competition’s level” in their two JLT games. Against the 2017 premiers, they fought tooth and nail against the best in the league; against an up-and-coming mid-level Brisbane, they played at about the Lions’ level.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 67.3
Projected W-L record: 18-3-1, 2-2 in close games. (Losses in Rounds 2, 6, and 9; draw with Magpies in Round 12, winners of their last ten. This time, I might believe it.) 2nd place.

West Coast Eagles – ended last year at 74.2. regressed to 69.4.

They reminded Geelong that they were the defending champions, wiped Fremantle off the field in the second half on Sunday, and look poised to make a spirited attempt at defending their title.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 68.9
Projected W-L record: 18-4, 3-2 in close games (ELO-FF predicts losses in R3, 6, 18, and 22.) 3rd place.

Richmond Tigers – ended last year at 68.6, regressed to 64.9.

They finished on a very low note, which kicked them out of the 70s. Watching them this month, we’ve essentially reinstalled those points they lost in that one prelim finals game to the Pies. Against two finalists this month, they’ve reminded us that their top gear is better than any other team’s best.

Starting ELO-FF 2019 rating: 69.4
Projected W-L record: An unrealistic 21-1, the only loss coming to Melbourne in R20. 3-1 in games within a goal. 1st place and premiers, both of which I agree with barring injury problems.

My parting shot in my personal prediction article was that the healthiest of Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood, and West Coast in September would win the premiership; I stand by that prediction.