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Today we again head to Sandown Lakeside for a twilight meeting.
We have an eight-race card, with the highest rated race coming in the last, being a Benchmark 78 handicap over 1400 metres.
The bureau predicts a lovely Melbourne day, with it being 27 degrees and sunny, so head down to the track after work to have a punt!
Race 1
Tricky race to kick off the program, with a Benchmark 78 handicap for the fillies and mares.
I’ve narrowed it down to three chances, and I’d probably lean towards Dunlani out of the three.
She didn’t go well first up, but that has become the usual, with her not placing from three fresh runs, although the win last start at the Valley after having to sustain a long run was impressive.
That seems the best form line coming into this, beating the likes of Bianco Nuovo, and as a three-year-old she has the most scope for improvement. Marginal top pick.
Pelonomena shapes as the big danger. She was unlucky two starts back at the Hillside track, in a better race than this, finishing behind Jungle Fish and Longclaw, and she atoned for that by winning with ease at Echuca last start.
She shouldn’t be too far away from them in this small of a field, and she’ll be closing off strongly.
Argyle Bell is the best of the rest. She was beaten quite easily in marginally better races than this in her previous two starts, before winning well at the Hillside track last start.
She’ll sit closer to the speed than the other two I mentioned, and the Craig Williams appointment is a good one.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.4 Dunlani.
Race 2
We’ve got a three-year-old Maiden Plate here in the second. It looks a race between two here, and it’s very hard to go past Hurricane Fighter.
He’s got the race experience over a few of these, and his form last preparation, running a length behind Prince of Caviar, and then missing by a neck against Asgard Massif, looks pretty good for this maiden.
There will be minimal pressure in the race, so James Winks can sit him on the speed from barrier four, and he’ll be very hard to run down.
Skyway Star is the big danger. She ran 2.1 lengths off No Emotion last prep, before narrowly missing against Gettin’ There at Ballarat.
They put her in the deep end in the Group 2 Wakeful last spring, and she was far from disgraced there. She’s another who will sit on the speed, and the appointment of Damien Oliver is a big bonus.
Havashout is the next best, after a good effort at Ararat resuming. But throughout his short career, he’s generally always found one or two better on the day, and it’s hard to see that changing today.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.3 Hurricane Fighter.
Race 3
Another maiden in the third, but this time it’s a two-year-old maiden plate. Nearly an impossible race here, with most of the field being first starters, and some without trials, but I’d lean towards Chenier.
The Godolphin Blue has been winning every two-year-old race this autumn, and this colt has the best breeding in this field, being by Medaglia d’Oro and out of Zydeco, who is a direct cross to Zabeel. He draws well and should run a bold debut.
Arctic Wolf is another who is bred well, by Sebring and out of Class, and he draws the favours from the rails here. Mark Zahra jumps on board, and the Mike Moroney stable must always be respected in these two-year-old races.
Cielo Stellato is the other main chance to my eye. She ran two lengths off Varda on debut, and then chased steadily behind Treaty of Seville last start. She has race experience on most of these, and she should get a nice run on the speed.
Recommended bet: Wouldn’t be investing in this race, way too many unknowns.
Race 4
We’ve got a Benchmark 64 handicap here over 1200 metres. It’s a small field, but it’s one of the better races on the card, with some progressive types going around.
I’m liking More than Exceed here. His best is definitely good enough for a race like this, as he showed when he finished under a length off Wild Planet and Ranier last preparation.
He was outclassed in both group races he ran in, but he takes a pretty big step down in class here, and he trialled brilliantly at Cranbourne in the lead up to this race.
He’s two from three first up, draws well from barrier five to sit on the speed, and hopefully the gelding in the break will see him start to reach his full potential this time in.
Ritorno on the five-day back-up looks a danger. He’s been on fire this preparation, running under two lengths off Villa Sarchi three starts back, and then battling on to finish fourth behind Lauchetti after being caught wide at Pakenham. He won well at Sale last start, and he’ll be finishing strongly with even luck.
High Ratio is the best of the rest. He ran two lengths behind Tony Nicconi in a Group 3 last preparation, before resuming in the Inglis Sprint at Warwick Farm, where he was outclassed behind Fiesta and Estijaab.
He put in a better display at Pakenham last start, running a length off River Jewel, and he should strip fitter for the two runs in this preparation. He isn’t without a chance.
Recommended bet: Can’t take the $3.60 on No.2 More than Exceed, so I’d be staying out of this one.
Race 5
Another Benchmark 64 handicap awaits us in the fifth, but this time over the mile.
Savvy Oak is just better than these horses, and seems to get some favours in this race. His form last preparation, finishing three lengths behind Stars of Carrum in the Moonee Valley Vase, and then finishing three lengths off Extra Brut in the derby without having much luck, is obviously a very strong form reference.
He resumed at Pakenham and closed very well over this same trip behind the talented Jungle Fish over this trip. He’ll be better for that run, and there looks to be a good speed in this race. With even luck in the run, he should be storming over the top of them late to win this.
Pressure looks to be a danger, if there is one. She won well to break her maiden at Cranbourne last preparation, before running three lengths off Greysful Glamour, who went on to finish second in the Victorian Oaks.
She resumes here off a 21-week break, and she could give a sight on the speed from barrier three.
Grinzinger Star is the next best. He won well to break his maiden at Ballarat last preparation ahead of Zapurler and Miner’s Miss, before fading late to finish third in the Geelong Classic.
He was outclassed in the derby, but this is obviously a step down in class from that, and he could run a bold race fresh.
Recommended bet: Very big win bet on No.1 Savvy Oak.
Race 6
Pretty open race here in the sixth, which is a Benchmark 64 handicap over 1400 metres.
I’m going to go with Toorak Warrior here, but admittedly, he’ll need some luck in the run getting back from barrier two.
He ran a length off Greyworm last preparation at this track, which is a good form line for this, and his two runs in this preparation have been full of merit.
He ran two lengths off My Divas resuming at Seymour, and then went to Bendigo and ran a length off the much spruiked Jumbo Ozaki at Bendigo, while being held up for a run down the straight.
He should be ready to peak on his preparation third up, and with even luck he can charge over them late.
Stocktaka looks a good chance. He came home well behind Makfi Amour on debut, before digging in to beat Judge O’Reilly after a tough run at the Hillside track. He’ll get a better run from barrier seven today, and Damien Lane staying on is a bonus.
Hostar is the forgotten horse that could run a big race. His form lines behind Five Kingdom and Declares War are solid for this, and he was unlucky last start at Flemington. Damien Thornton jumps back on board, and he’ll run a big race fresh.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.4 Toorak Warrior, with a saver on No.3 Hostar.
Race 7
One of the better races on the card comes here in the seventh, which is a Benchmark 70 handicap over 1300 metres. Some smart types going around in this race, but I think the stars align perfectly for the Waller trained Andaz.
His form last preparation was solid for a race like this, finishing second in consecutive starts at Warwick Farm, before going to the Greys race on Oaks Day, where he was caught three wide with no cover, and still kept finding to the line to finish under two lengths away.
He draws perfectly from barrier six to get a nice run in midfield, and he’ll be charging home late.
Our Sea Goddess is a big danger. She won well in consecutive starts at Geelong and Moonee Valley last preparation, before being outclassed at Group 3 level.
She’s only missed the top two once fresh from three tries, and she’ll give a big sight on the speed.
Indian Thunder is the best of the rest. He won well at Stawell three starts back, before coming home strongly behind Critical Thinking at Caulfield.
He was flat at the Valley last start, but he’s had a month break since then, and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.7 Andaz.
Race 8
The lucky last on the program is the best race on the program. A Benchmark 78 handicap for the fillies and Mares over 1400 metres.
Some smart types going around here, but I’m siding with the Tasmanian in I Remember You. Since going to Tasmania she’s hit a rich vein of form, winning two in a row with ease, before getting nosed out to Victorian Twitchy Frank in the Group 3 Vamos Stakes.
She’s come to Victoria in what is a winnable race, and she draws all the favours from barrier three. She’ll be hard to run down.
Nessuna Fiducia is a big danger. The penny seemed to drop for her last preparation, winning over the mile at Ballarat to break her maiden, before going on to win over 1700 metres on Oaks Day.
She generally resumes well, and she’ll be running on strongly first up today.
Charlayne is the best of the rest. She ran well behind Khulaasa at the Valley two starts back, before getting no cover down the Flemington straight, and being on the wrong part of the track. She should get a lovely run behind the leaders, and with Ben Melham on board she shouldn’t have any excuses today.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.2 I Remember You.
Best bet: Race 5 No.1 Savvy Oak.
Second best bet: Race 2 No.3 Hurricane Fighter.
Best value: Race 6 No.3 Hostar.
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