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2019 AFL season: Round 1 preview

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Roar Guru
20th March, 2019
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Nearly six months have passed since the West Coast Eagles lifted the premiership cup and now this weekend, 17 other clubs will begin their mission to stop them from repeating as premiers in 2019.

The Eagles’ premiership defence will start with the longest road trip in the game when they travel to Brisbane to face a Lions side many expect will improve in 2019, while the season overall will begin with the traditional clash between Carlton and Richmond at the MCG.

Last year’s beaten grand finalists, Collingwood, will begin their redemption against another traditional rival in the Geelong Cats, while Saturday night sees another grand final rematch from recent years when the Western Bulldogs and Sydney go toe to toe at the newly named Marvel Stadium.

Another grudge match awaits us on Sunday, when the GWS Giants lay out the welcome mat for Dylan Shiel and his new Essendon teammates at the Sydney Showground on Sunday.

Here is your preview to Round 1.

Carlton vs Richmond
For the fifth straight year, the season will open with traditional rivals Carlton and Richmond slugging it out at the MCG.

While Richmond enjoyed another season of consistency in 2018, winning their first minor premiership since 1982 and just falling short of a second consecutive grand final appearance, Carlton endured yet another season in the doldrums, winning just two matches and claiming their fifth wooden spoon since the turn of the century.

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Any hopes they had of improving this year took a massive hit when newly-appointed co-captain Sam Docherty went down with another serious knee injury which will sideline him for most, if not all, of this season.

This will leave the other new co-captain, Patrick Cripps, to shoulder most of the on-field responsibility.

The club also boosted their forward stocks by landing Mitch McGovern from the Adelaide Crows, but it will take more than just him if the Blues are to crack the ton for the first time since Round 11, 2016.

The Blues’ predicament sharply contrasts to that at Richmond, who are tipped to continue to go from strength to strength in 2019.

The addition of Tom Lynch (who remains in doubt with a knee injury) to their forward line will make them the side to watch this season as they right the wrongs of last year’s preliminary final humiliation at the hands of Collingwood, which put an end to a long winning streak they’d enjoyed at the MCG dating back to Round 13, 2017.

Tom J Lynch

Tom Lynch is a Tiger. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

With their best side on the field, the Tigers should prove to be too strong in the season opener.

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Prediction: Richmond by 40 points.

Collingwood vs Geelong
Friday night sees last year’s beaten grand finalists, Collingwood, open their season against the Geelong Cats in a rematch of the 2011 grand final.

A dismal 13th-place finish in 2017 was about to cost coach Nathan Buckley his job, but in a massive vote of confidence, the board extended his contract, stating that he was the right man to lead the club forward.

A slow start to last season (they lost their first two matches) led to some impatience among the Pies fans, but they would eventually climb the ladder to finish third at the end of the minor rounds before qualifying for their fifth grand final since 2002.

They had started strongly against the Eagles, but eventually went down by just five points, thus missing out on a record-equaling 16th flag (jointly held by Essendon and Carlton).

But with the past behind them, all they can do is move forward, and their quest for redemption starts against a Cats side many are tipping for a slide down the ladder.

Despite the return home of Gary Ablett Jr, the Cats failed to live up to expectations in season 2018, finishing eighth on the ladder and bowing out to Melbourne in the elimination final.

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Questions were again raised as to whether they can contend for a premiership with such a strong playing list headed by Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood.

A productive offseason saw them land the likes of Gary Rohan and Luke Dahlhaus from the Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs, respectively, while Tim Kelly will have to make do at the club for another year after failing to secure a trade to the West Coast Eagles.

Luke Dahlhaus

Luke Dahlhaus is one of two new faces at the Cattery. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

This match-up promises to be evenly poised, and I have the Cats winning this one by three goals.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 18 points.

Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
The first match on Saturday sees Melbourne launch their season against Port Adelaide at the MCG.

After eleven straight seasons out of September, during which they sacked two coaches and underwent a significant rebuild, season 2018 saw the Dees make significant strides, finishing fifth on the ladder and progressing to the preliminary final where they found the Eagles a class above in the west.

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Not only have they again recruited strongly, landing Gold Coast pair Steven May (who won’t play against the Power due to suspension) and Kade Kolodjashnij, the club has also shown faith in coach Simon Goodwin by extending his contract through to the end of the 2022 season.

If he sees it through to the end, he will become the club’s longest-serving coach since Neale Daniher led them for nearly a decade between 1998 and 2007.

Meantime, Ken Hinkley finds himself under pressure entering this season with his talent-laden Port Adelaide side having missed the finals in three of the past four seasons.

At one stage last year, the Power were 11-4 after Round 16 before losing five of their last six matches to crash to a tenth-place finish on the ladder.

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While they lost Chad Wingard, they did pick up the likes of Ryan Burton and Sam Mayes from Hawthorn and the Brisbane Lions, respectively.

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If he plays, it will remain to be seen what reception Jack Watts, who was offloaded by the Dees at the end of the 2017 season, will receive when he plays in front of his old fans at the MCG for the first time.

At home though, Melbourne should get off to a winning start here.

Prediction: Melbourne by 18 points.

Adelaide vs Hawthorn
It will be the Crows’ turn to open the season at the Adelaide Oval in 2019 and they will do so hosting the most consistent side of this decade in Hawthorn in the twilight.

After a phenomenal 2017 season in which they finished on top of the ladder with the AFL’s deadliest attack, and finishing runner-up to Richmond in the grand final, things fell apart for Don Pyke’s men last season as they crashed to a disappointing 12th-place finish.

Part of this was due to teams being able to figure out the Crows’ game plan, in addition to the psychological scars brought about by the club’s controversial pre-season in which players were mentally tortured like never before.

Taylor Walker also copped some criticism over his captaincy of the side but, while he will remain captain, he will have a new sidekick in Rory Sloane, who at times has filled in as acting captain whenever Walker was absent from the side.

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Rory Sloane

Rory Sloane is a Crow co-captain. (Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Meantime, the Hawks also have a new captain, with Ben Stratton to take the reins after Jarryd Roughead elected to stand aside.

After such a dominant period since the turn of the decade, many are also tipping the Hawks to slide down the ladder, partly because after they finished fourth last year, they tumbled out of September in straight sets for the second time in three seasons.

In their favour is that they have never lost to the Crows at the Oval, but I think that record is bound to change this Saturday.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 22 points.

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney
The first of two Saturday night matches will see the Western Bulldogs take on the Sydney Swans in what will be the first match under the Marvel Stadium banner.

To celebrate the occasion, the Bulldogs will unveil a one-off Thor-inspired guernsey which the players will wear during the match, leaving the Swans to don their clash jumper which they normally only wear against the two Queensland clubs.

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As far as on-field matters are concerned, the Dogs will be hoping to return to finals action after missing out for the two years following their stunning premiership success in 2016, achieved at the expense of their opponents this Saturday night.

They did finish last year promisingly, winning three of their final four matches and narrowly losing to Richmond by three points at the MCG in the other match.

Tim English

Can the Bulldogs arrest their long premiership hangover? (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Meantime, all eyes will be on Lance “Buddy” Franklin to see whether he can reach the 1,000 goal milestone later this year; he currently sits on 917 career majors, just nine behind Essendon great Matthew Lloyd, whom he should overtake in the early rounds.

If the 32-year-old is to reach the milestone this year, he’ll have to do what he’s only ever done once previously, in 2008 – kick at least 83 goals in a season.

The four-time Coleman Medallist is currently racing the clock in a bid to face the Dogs, whom the Swans beat by seven points in the corresponding match last year.

Many are predicting that John Longmire’s side will slide down the ladder this year, owing to their poor finish to last season which saw them thrashed by the GWS Giants in the elimination final at the SCG last September.

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However, I think the Swans should get their 2019 campaign off to a winning start here.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 20 points.

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles
The second match on Saturday night sees the West Coast Eagles begin their premiership defence with a potentially tricky first-up trip to Brisbane to face a Lions side many expect to improve this year.

Written off by many twelve months ago, the Eagles defied the odds and a notoriously poor record at the MCG to claim its first flag since 2006, with Dom Sheed kicking the match-winning goal from a very tight angle in the grand final.

Dom Sheed

Dom Sheed celebrates his premiership-winning goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

And they did so without two of their key important players – Andrew Gaff, whose brain fade in the second Western Derby last August saw him suspended for eight matches by the tribunal, and Nic Naitanui, who suffered a second serious knee injury three weeks earlier against Collingwood at the MCG.

Neither will play against the Lions, with Naitanui not expected back until mid-July at the earliest, while Gaff still has two more matches of his suspension to serve before he can return in the grand final rematch in Round 3.

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The premiers could also be without full-forward Josh Kennedy, who didn’t play in either of their two pre-season wins over the Geelong Cats or Fremantle, as he battles a foot injury.

The Lions side they will face at the Gabba on Saturday night will be a side that has continued to improve under Chris Fagan, for whom this will be his third year at the helm of the side.

Dayne Zorko has led the side well since taking over the captaincy from Dayne Beams, who has returned to Collingwood after four years in the Sunshine State.

After the Lions had beaten Hawthorn by 56 points in their last match under Beams’ captaincy, Zorko led the Lions to four more wins as they finished 15th with a percentage of 89.1.

Should Josh Kennedy line up for the Eagles, the job of containing him will go to vice-captain Harris Andrews, who enjoyed a breakout 2018 season and just missed out on All Australian selection for the first time in his career.

While the Eagles may be the defending premiers, I have a feeling the Lions can cause an upset in front on their fans at the Gabba.

Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 10 points.

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St Kilda vs Gold Coast Suns
The first match on Sunday is likely to be the least attractive match of the round, with wooden spoon contenders St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns set to face off in front of what is likely to be a very low crowd at Marvel Stadium.

Both the Saints and Suns endured contrastingly disappointing 2018 campaigns, racking up just four wins each while the Saints forced a draw against the Giants in Round 5.

Jack Steven

St Kilda endured a rough 2018. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Most are predicting that Alan Richardson, who has not managed to lead the Saints back into the finals since taking over as coach in 2014, will be the first coach sacked if the Saints’ regression continues in 2019.

However, his side should start favourites against the Suns, which after winning three of their first five matches last year crumbled after that point, only winning one match (against the Sydney Swans at the SCG in Round 18) for the rest of the year.

After losing both co-captains in Steven May and Tom Lynch to Melbourne and Richmond respectively during the off-season, as well as losing defender Rory Thompson for the year with a serious knee injury, second-year coach Stuart Dew will face a massive battle on his hands in trying to field a competitive side week in, week out.

In their two pre-season matches they edged out the Western Bulldogs by less than a kick before finding the Swans a class above in Lismore.

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The Saints, on the other hand, also enjoyed a win over the Bulldogs preceded by a 25-point win over North Melbourne.

It won’t be pretty, but the Saints should get the job done here.

Prediction: St Kilda by 16 points.

GWS Giants vs Essendon
Dylan Shiel will not have to wait long to rip into his former teammates, with the pick of the first round matches seeing his new side, Essendon, tackling the GWS Giants at Sydney Showground first up.

Shiel’s departure from the Giants was one of many for the eighth-year club, which had to offload players to ease the pressure on their salary cap.

Bombers fans are hoping that the recently-turned 26-year-old is the final piece in the club’s premiership puzzle, or at least in their quest to overcome their finals hoodoo, having not won a final since 2004 or finished higher than seventh since 2002.

They’ll also be wanting to see their side get off to a better start to the season, after six losses in their first eight matches last year, including a loss to then-previously winless Carlton, saw them ultimately miss out on a finals berth.

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Dylan Shiel

The Dylan Shiel cup is on Sunday. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

And while the Giants should remain a finals force in 2019, the fact of the matter is that their clash against the Bombers will be the first of many tough early round fixtures, which also includes trips to Perth (to face the West Coast Eagles) and Geelong (to face the Cats) on either side of a home clash against Richmond in the three weeks to follow.

After consecutive preliminary final defeats, Leon Cameron’s side slightly regressed in 2018, finishing seventh and then thrashing the Swans in the elimination final before ultimately falling to Collingwood by ten points in the semi-final at the MCG.

The absence of co-captain Callan Ward for at least four or five weeks will be a huge blow, but it does cancel out that of Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker for the Bombers, who won the corresponding match last year by 35 points without the former featuring.

For the Giants, that defeat proved to be the turning point as they then managed to turn their season around, going on to reach the finals for the third consecutive year.

On the road, the Bombers should win.

Prediction: Essendon by 12 points.

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Fremantle vs North Melbourne
The final match of Round 1 sees Fremantle open the season at Optus Stadium, but they won’t do it without any controversy.

Prize recruit Jesse Hogan won’t feature for the Dockers after he was stood down for being in an unfit state to train last Sunday, and it now remains to be seen when the 24-year-old will return to the field.

That is the last thing Ross Lyon would want as he tries to steady the ship at Fremantle, the club having missed the finals for the past three years.

Ross Lyon

Ross Lyon has his work cut out for him. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Statistically, they proved to be the worst-performed team during the JLT Community Series, losing both matches against last year’s grand finalists, Collingwood and the West Coast Eagles, by 27 and 61 points respectively.

Their opponents this Sunday, North Melbourne, are also coming off a winless pre-season in which it lost matches to St Kilda and Port Adelaide, but unlike the Dockers, the future is brighter at Arden Street after the club defied expectations to finish ninth on the ladder.

In a season where many believed they would contend for the wooden spoon rather than a berth in September, they were able to defeat competition heavyweights Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans, while they also scored an impressive win over the West Coast Eagles in Hobart in Round 19.

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They were also the first Victorian team to leave Optus Stadium with four premiership points, and you can bet they will also do the same to finish Round 1 of the new season.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 14 points.

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