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In the third part of the definitive guide to AFL 2019, I look at a true mix of successful and unsuccessful clubs who will face their varying challenges through this year.
If you haven’t seen the first two parts, feel free to check them out here and here.
Port Adelaide
Each season, there are always big changes in the ladder, some teams completely drop off, others rise from the bottom eight into premiership contention.
2019 will see the power switched off, as Port Adelaide faces a truly difficult task to stay relevant.
There are concerns all over the ground, with injury-prone big men in attack creating a sense of unreliability outside of Robbie Gray in front of goal, while the defence is shaky at best, as shown in the back-end of 2018 with Tom Jonas playing the footy of his life.
The midfield is okay, as Travis Boak and Tom Rockliff appear to be playing excellent footy in the preseason, while Ollie Wines shouldn’t miss too much time. Ryan Burton’s addition will bring class to the outside, as should draftees Connor Rozee and Xavier Duursma.
Scott Lycett’s inclusion is so important as Paddy Ryder just isn’t someone that can be relied upon, while Justin Westhoff may need to play as a monster key forward as is required in the 6-6-6 formation, given Charlie Dixon is always injured.
2019 can easily be the season Port Adelaide gives five or six young players upwards of 15 games each to fast-track the overall development of the club heading into next year. The loss of Chad Wingard only places more pressure on Steven Motlop to improve, while Robbie Gray and Brad Ebert will be the main sources of goals for the club this season.
It won’t be an extended period of time down the bottom of the table for Port, but many will want this season to be fast-forwarded.
Are Port Adelaide in for a rough year? (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Predicted finish: 15th (7 wins, 15 losses)
Best and Fairest: Travis Boak
Leading Goalkicker: Robbie Gray
Most Improved: Darcy Byrne-Jones
Richmond
It’s a boring pick, but the Tigers look set to have another big season in 2019. The premiership year saw a magical run where the team hit form at the right time, while last season was the dominant season that ultimately ended in disappointment.
There’s a myth going around that Richmond lost a lot of depth during the off-season, but adding Tom Lynch and drafting Riley Collier-Dawkins and Jack Ross immediately gives the club some quality and coverage for its best 22.
Oleg Markov, Mav Weller and Brandon Ellis look set to feature a fair bit in 2019, while Noah Balta could be the surprise packet coming out of the blue. The Tigers will see major positives in getting Dion Prestia and Daniel Rioli fully fit, factors that haven’t been present at many stages over the past two seasons.
Perhaps the club’s biggest differential out of the elite teams is its Hawthorn-style flexibility, where many of its players can play in any position.
All of Richmond’s forwards can run through the midfield or run off half-back, while its midfielders have the ability to move into attack. In-game tactics are as important as ever with runners’ ability to stay on the field limited, and Richmond may well be the best exponent of on-field flexibility. 2019 is a big year.
Richmond could be back up the top very soon. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Predicted finish: 1st (18 wins, 4 losses)
Best and Fairest: Dustin Martin
Leading Goalkicker: Jack Riewoldt
Most Improved: Jack Higgins
St Kilda
Much like the other bottom couple of teams, there are positives ahead for the Saints and having them in the bottom four is a reflection on the fact this competition is truly close.
As we have seen in the past, St Kilda can pull out huge performances out of nowhere and knock off genuinely good teams, while also producing horrible games against poorer opposition. The issues with St Kilda this season are in defence, where I think they’ll be heavily scored against.
Jake Carlisle will miss most of the year, Nathan Brown is ageing and below average now, while Dylan Roberton’s health has unfortunately ruled him out. The signings of Jono Marsh and Callum Wilkie don’t necessarily assist these issues, as both have thrived with big numbers as second or third talls.
The 6-6-6 structure won’t help the generally small-bodied St Kilda defence, which could see big bags kicked against them by opposition tall forwards. What fans can look forward to, however, is a forever improving midfield and attacking stocks with real potential.
St Kilda will be hoping for a better year in 2019. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Jack Steele, in particular, can become the club’s best player and move into the elite bracket of the competition, while assisted by the likes of Seb Ross, Dan Hannebery and Jack Steven. Max King mightn’t play often this season, but with the future being a trio consisting of him, Tim Membrey and Paddy McCartin, it’s an exciting time.
Rowan Marshall too, could really establish himself in either attack or the ruck this year, as he has shown an upside not many talls have at St Kilda. It will be the likes of Jack Steele, Jack Billings and Jade Gresham that take over in 2019, giving a real insight into the classy future the Saints have ahead of them.
It’ll be a stop-start season for the club, but fans just need to keep holding on.
Predicted finish: 16th (6 wins, 16 losses)
Best and Fairest: Jack Steele
Leading Goalkicker: Tim Membrey
Most Improved: Jade Gresham
Sydney
The Swans are still heavily reliant on Lance Franklin and with him not being fit for the start of the season, it will mean a slow and boring start for the club.
Sydney remains largely unchanged from 2018, with Ryan Clarke replacing Dan Hannebery in the team as the only major change. Clarke can be prolific in the midfield, but his ball use is questionable.
Two big breakout seasons are expected in 2019, with George Hewett to step up and become a household name, while Aliir Aliir has star potential playing anywhere the Swans see fit.
It’s that attacking half that is such a concern for the team, particularly if Buddy isn’t at his best. The goals will be hard to come by given the inexperience and inconsistency we’ve seen from the club in that area in the past is still relevant for 2019.
Of course, the defence holds up well and the midfield probably breaks even, but it’ll be an old-school Sydney set-up that will be the most effective this season.
Do the Swans need to be less Buddy-centric? (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Expect plenty of low-scoring and dour affairs as the John Longmire looks to make the most of what’s at his disposal. The Swans will be around the mark for finals, but I’m not sure they’ll quite make it.
Predicted finish: 9th (12 wins, 10 losses)
Best and Fairest: Luke Parker
Leading Goalkicker: Lance Franklin
Most Improved: George Hewett
West Coast
For those hoping for a drop-off in form from the reigning premiers, it certainly isn’t coming this season. The new rules seem to benefit the Eagles the most.
The kick-in rule will see Shannon Hurn send the ball past halfway regularly, while the 6-6-6 rule opens up West Coast’s attacking 50, which suits the lead-up style of Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, with the latter in particular seemingly ready to challenge for the Coleman Medal.
With the league having a number of strong teams in contention for the flag, home ground advantages will be big in 2019. The Eagles will be close to unstoppable at home, but they’ll experience their fair share of losses away from home which will bring them back to the pack.
Question marks over the durability of Kennedy are another unknown factor that can have a reasonably large impact on the Eagles – they are still reliant on the veteran key forward and while Darling often plays well as the lone man, with a 6-6-6 set-up, relying on Nathan Vardy or young forwards to replace Kennedy may not be as effective as it previously has been.
The likely return of Nic Naitanui around the time of the byes will be a huge boost for the club, and it also gives time for Tom Hickey to establish himself over the first two months.
West Coast will be looking to go back-to-back. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The ruck position is crucial in 2019 and the Eagles need Hickey to stand up early to challenge for a top two position.
Predicted finish: 4th (15 wins, 7 losses)
Best and Fairest: Andrew Gaff
Leading Goalkicker: Jack Darling
Most Improved: Willie Rioli
Western Bulldogs
It’s half-tempting to deduct a couple of wins from the Bulldogs’ total purely based on their Thor-inspired guernsey in Round 1, but poor aesthetic aside, it’s hard to expect much to change for the Bulldogs.
The list set-up is really nice for the future, with most of the club’s core aged below 25. The issue for the present comes with the unpredictability of the coach, which has ultimately stalled any true progression for the club since its premiership.
If Tim English plays 22 games as the main ruckman, Aaron Naughton stays as the main key defender, Ed Richards carves his niche across half-back and Marcus Bontempelli plays as a full-time midfielder, this is a team that can finish closer to a top-eight berth than to the bottom four.
Unfortunately, those “ifs” have previously proven to not go beyond hypotheticals and we must assume that to be the case in 2019.
Unlike the Blues or Saints, where the positivity can come from consistent output from its youngsters, it’s more likely we’ll see some excellent individual performances from the ‘Dogs’ rookies (see Aaron Naughton’s game against Richmond in Round 23, 2018) over reliability.
Does Luke Beveridge tinker with the Dogs too much? (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
They can be fun to watch and will have some fantasy relevance for those that partake in competitions, but like the teams below it, the Bulldogs will just use 2019 as another year of development for a future finals push.
Predicted finish: 13th (8 wins, 14 losses)
Best and Fairest: Jack Macrae
Leading Goalkicker: Josh Schache
Most Improved: Tim English