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Super Rugby: The super stats Round 6 preview and Round 5 wrap
Rugby4Cast
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21st March, 2019
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Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
21st March, 2019
2
1734 Reads

The algorithm that we use to predict Super Rugby games’ outcomes had a decent weekend in Round 5.

We copped a bit of stick for some of its predictions, so it was pleasing, despite the two incorrect ones, to see how close most were, especially the Chiefs and Sunwolves.

Super Rugby Round 5 Predicted vs Actual
Season accuracy: 22 correct from 33: 67per cent Season margin error: 13.12
Weekend accuracy: 3 correct from 5: 60per cent Weekend margin error: 8.40
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin error
Stormers 35 32 Yes 20
Jaguares 8 25
Chiefs 23 25 No 2
Hurricanes 23 23
Brumbies 19 25 Yes 3
Waratahs 13 22
Sunwolves 31 34 No 5
Reds 34 32
Lions 36 46 Yes 12
Rebels 33 31

The Stormers were again on form, with a 20-point win over the Jaguares. The Hurricanes and Chiefs played out a draw in difficult circumstances. The Sunwolves were again unlucky not to come away with the points and the Lions got it done against the undefeated Rebels.

Stormers vs Jaguares
We predicted this to be a relatively tight affair, however, it was far from it with the Stormers winning comfortably. The Jaguares scored nice and early, however, after that, it was one-way traffic as the South African outfit went into the break with the scores at 16-8.

Hurricanes vs Chiefs
While New Zealand sat in shock at the horrific events in Christchurch, there was a poignant moment in the beginning as both teams joined together to pay their respects.

The sides played the full 80 to a 23-23 draw. We had the Chiefs as slight favourites as the Canes were without a win in Hamilton for 12 years, and the match finished very close to our predicted score of 25-23.

Brumbies vs Waratahs
Always a great match between these two fierce teams. It wasn’t a pretty game, but the Brumbies came away with the vital points after losing the last two on the trot.

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Sunwolves vs Reds
The Sunwolves, again, just missed out on the victory with the Reds who snatched victory in the last five minutes. The Japanese outfit will be looking at what’s going wrong with an increasing number of games where they are narrowly missing out on key wins.

However, for the Reds, this was their first win which was badly needed, though they are still at the bottom of the Australian conference.

Lions vs Rebels
The Rebels came into this match undefeated and with the Lions having a mixed opening few rounds. This could have gone either way.

In these circumstances, we always advise to go with what our algorithm says (but we’re biased clearly!) and if you did, congratulations and thank you for your trust.

The Lions won this Game 36-33 coming back in the 65th minute to lock the scores at 33 a piece. Lombard then knocked over a penalty in the 80th minute to take the victory.

Round 6 Matches and Predictions

Super Rugby Round 6
Season accuracy: 22 correct from 33: 67per cent Season margin error: 13.12
Teams Prediction Chance of winning Prediction
Blues 24 44.5per cent Highlanders to win by 2
Highlanders 26 54.7per cent
Hurricanes 37 82.1per cent Hurricanes to win by 15
Stormers 22 16.7per cent
Waratahs 27 40.5per cent Crusaders to win by 5
Crusaders 32 58.1per cent
Sunwolves 38 20.3per cent Lions to win by 16
Lions 54 77per cent
Bulls 39 45.7per cent Chiefs to win by 3
Chiefs 42 51.2per cent
Sharks 34 77.1per cent Sharks to win by 9
Rebels 25 21.4per cent
Reds 18 48.9per cent Brumbies to win by 2
Brumbies 20 49per cent
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Here are the algorithms predictions for the sixth round of Super Rugby.

Blues vs Highlanders
The Blues had a bye in Round 5 and will be looking to pick up a win to put a bit of distance between them and the Chiefs. However, the last ten games between these two sides do not read well for the Auckland outfit, only recording two wins back in 2014 and 2016.

Last ten games between Blues and Highlanders

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts Avg Pts
Highlanders 10 10 8 2 0 301 225 80per cent 30.1
Blues 10 10 2 8 0 225 301 20per cent 22.5
Date Home Score Score Away
4/20/2018 Blues 16 34 Highlanders
2/23/2018 Highlanders 41 34 Blues
4/8/2017 Highlanders 26 20 Blues
3/11/2017 Blues 12 16 Highlanders
2/26/2016 Blues 33 31 Highlanders
6/12/2015 Blues 7 44 Highlanders
4/18/2015 Highlanders 30 24 Blues
3/29/2014 Blues 30 12 Highlanders
2/22/2014 Highlanders 29 21 Blues
6/1/2013 Highlanders 38 28 Blues

Our algorithm has the Highlanders by two, however with the way the Blues are going at the moment this could be possibly more. Give us your thoughts on this in the comments.

Last ten games Hurricanes vs Stormers
The Hurricanes drew with the Chiefs in Hamilton last round and will be looking to get back to winning ways in Round 6 when hosting the Stormers in Wellington. The Stormers are on three wins, one loss and a total of 13 points. The Hurricanes are on three wins, one draw and one loss a total of 15 points. It’s tight at the top.

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P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Hurricanes 10 4 6 0 225 235 40per cent 22.5
Stormers 10 6 4 0 235 225 60per cent 23.5
Date Home Score Score Away
5/5/2017 Hurricanes 41 22 Stormers
4/3/2015 Hurricanes 25 20 Stormers
2/28/2014 Stormers 19 18 Hurricanes
4/26/2013 Hurricanes 16 18 Stormers
2/25/2012 Stormers 39 26 Hurricanes
3/13/2010 Stormers 37 13 Hurricanes
4/18/2009 Hurricanes 34 11 Stormers
4/19-2008 Stormers 20 12 Hurricanes
3/3/2007 Hurricanes 17 30 Stormers
3/11/2006 Stormers 19 23 Hurricanes

A 60% win record for the Stormers, Impressive stuff. There can’t be many teams with that record against the Kiwi sides. However, the Hurricanes have taken the last two matches, both of these at home in Wellington. How do you see this going? The algorithm has this match to go to the Hurricanes again, winning fairly easily by 15 points.

Last ten games Waratahs vs Crusaders
This will be a tough game for the Australian outfit. However, for the Tahs to get a win, they will need to show no fear against an in-form Crusaders team.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Waratahs 10 2 8 0 225 285 20per cent 22.5
Crusaders 10 8 2 0 285 225 80per cent 28.5
Date Home Score Score Away
5/12/2018 Crusaders 31 29 Waratahs
4/2/2017 Waratahs 22 41 Crusaders
5/20/2016 Crusaders 29 10 Waratahs
5/23/2015 Waratahs 32 22 Crusaders
8/2/2014 Waratahs 33 32 Crusaders
5/31/2013 Crusaders 23 22 Waratahs
4/29/2012 Waratahs 33 37 Crusaders
3/4/2011 Crusaders 33 18 Waratahs
4/10/2010 Crusaders 20 13 Waratahs
3/21/2009 Waratahs 13 17 Crusaders

Again the Crusaders have dominated in the last ten outings against a side with eight wins out of ten games, scoring an average of 28.5 points.

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However, the good thing is that the Waratahs will have home advantage and although they are two from four on the results table, they have been going well.

Our algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 5.

Last three games Sunwolves vs Lions
The Sunwolves, although have been unlucky of late with the results, will definitely be up against it this week. The Lions have been a bit of a mixed bag so far but let’s not forget that this team have been finalists two years in the running, and are sitting second in the South African Conference.

Last ten games Sunwolves vs Lions

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Lions 3 3 0 0 160 58 100per cent 53.33333333
Sunwolves 3 0 3 0 58 160 0per cent 19.33333333
Date Home Score Score Away
3/17/2018 Lions 40 38 Sunwolves
7/1/2017 Lions 94 7 Sunwolves
2/27/2016 Sunwolves 13 26 Lions

It’s been all Lions in this fixture, winning all three in their match-ups. Unsurprisingly the algorithm sees this going to the Lions by 16 points.

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Bulls vs Chiefs
The Chiefs have been woeful this campaign and will need to show something special to beat this strong, Bulls outfit who are playing at home.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Bulls 10 4 5 1 313 298 40per cent 31.3
Chiefs 10 5 4 1 298 313 50per cent 29.8
Date Home Score Score Away
3/16/2018 Chiefs 41 28 Bulls
4/1/2017 Chiefs 28 12 Bulls
5/22/2015 Chiefs 34 20 Bulls
3/29/2014 Bulls 34 34 Chiefs
5/25/2012 Chiefs 28 22 Bulls
4/30/2011 Bulls 43 27 Chiefs
4/9/2010 Chiefs 19 33 Bulls
5/30/2009 Bulls 61 17 Chiefs
4/25/2009 Bulls 33 27 Chiefs
3/22/2008 Chiefs 43 27 Bulls

The Chiefs have the upper hand in the ‘W’ column but the Bulls have scored more points. If you look closely, the Chiefs haven’t done well in Pretoria for a while. The closest they’ve been to a win was a 34 all-draw, back in 2014. Almost as high scoring as England Scotland this weekend.

Our algorithm has the Chiefs bucking this away form, winning a close one by three points. Personally, I feel this is unlikely, but can’t overrule the numbers! This could be a tough task away from home. Give us your thoughts.

Last seven games Sharks vs Rebels
This could be an interesting match-up. The Rebels suffered their first defeat, in 2019, at the hands of the Lions but the Sharks, albeit on two wins and two losses, have been going well and are coming back off a bye.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Sharks 6 4 1 1 168 131 67per cent 28
Rebels 6 1 4 1 131 168 17per cent 21.83333333
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Date Home Score Score Away
3/23/2018 Rebels 46 14 Sharks
4/22/2017 Sharks 9 9 Rebels
5/29/2015 Sharks 25 21 Rebels
5/2/2014 Rebels 16 22 Sharks
3/23/2013 Sharks 64 7 Rebels
3/11/2011 Rebels 32 34 Sharks

The history between the sides sits with the Sharks, however, the Rebels hammered them last time out, by 46 points to 14. Could we see a repeat of this away from home and with the Rebels current 2019 form?

The algorithm has the Sharks to win by nine at home, but it will be interesting to see how this one turns out.

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Last ten games Reds vs Brumbies
The Reds have finally picked up their first win. To be fair, they deserved a bit more from previous matches, having been pipped in the final moments of their opening rounds.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Brumbies 10 6 3 1 291 158 60per cent 29.1
Reds 10 3 6 1 158 291 30per cent 15.8
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Date Home Score Score Away
4/7/2018 Brumbies 45 21 Reds
3/2/2018 Reds 18 10 Brumbies
7/7/2017 Reds 16 15 Brumbies
4/8/2017 Brumbies 43 10 Reds
7/1/2016 Brumbies 43 24 Reds
3/14/2015 Reds 0 29 Brumbies
2/13/2015 Brumbies 47 3 Reds
4/11/2014 Reds 20 23 Brumbies
2/22/2014 Brumbies 17 27 Reds
4/20/2013 Reds 19 19 Brumbies

The last ten results between these two sides have seen the Brumbies as the dominant side with six wins out of ten, scoring an average of 29.1 points. However, home advantage is with the Reds and they won the last two at home in 2017 and 2018.

How do you see this going? The algorithm has the Brumbies to win by two. A close one indeed.

What do you think? Looks like a close round of results from our algorithm. Leave a comment and give us your thoughts. Don’t forget, you can also visit www.rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and much more.

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Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
Rugby4Cast aims to provide a stats-based approach to rugby previews and look closely at the histories, rankings and form heading into matches.

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