For the first time in AFL history, eleven premiership games were played across the two leagues – two finals games for the women and nine season-openers for the men.
On Friday and Saturday, with six games going, we had concrete predictions that seemed in sync with what the teams looked like this season, and our forecasts were in line with the body of knowledge on the internet which was also prognosticating.
We nailed the Richmond-Carlton game. It felt like we were going to get off to a great start.
And I went zero-for-six.
I’d be more upset about that if other prognosticators had done much better than I did, but the oddsmakers got none right as well.
Of the 18 pickers and systems we’re following this year, only two of them got as many as two of Saturday’s games right – and yes, one of those was the simplistic ‘percentage/home team’ system we’ve touted this fall, which correctly picked Geelong and Hawthorn.
Most of us missed Fremantle’s victory – all of us missed their rout! – and we all came one point from missing Gold Coast’s first points of the season.
Even when we picked GWS to win, we didn’t foresee the failure of Essendon to show up, although the signs were there during JLT.
Really, only the Carlton loss to Richmond went according to Hoyle – and that was overshadowed by the first of an alarming number of ACL injuries this extended weekend among the men.
Did the shortened pre-season lead to this? Were our athletes not fully prepared for the rigours of all-out competition? It would be interesting to examine the injuries on a case-by-case basis and find out.
It certainly had a deleterious effect on the players who tried to move straight into a Round 1 start without game time during the JLT, particularly Sydney’s Lance Franklin.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
I’m not as sure about Jack Viney for the Demons, who was well-covered, but team-mate Nathan Jones wasn’t ready for that mark that fell through his hands, that’s for sure.
If we give in to our yearly tendency to over-react to Round 1, we’d be looking at the ascendancy of the Brisbane Lions as perhaps the most impressive performance, cementing the oft-considered but usually-rejected supposition that perhaps this team is ready for finals.
We’d be looking at how far up the ladder is realistic for the Dockers – are they finals-material, or did they just beat another also-ran?
We’d be touting the Giants, the Cats, and perhaps even the Hawks as possible premiership candidates, and reconsidering the credentials of the Demons, the Magpies, the Bombers, and the Crows.
And suddenly, after we’d all written off the Tigers Friday morning following Rance’s ACL, Richmond isn’t looking so bad now.
We’d be looking carefully at the Saints and the Suns, and at Port and the Doggies. Did we write them off prematurely, relegating them to where they were last year when they’ve apparently made a host of improvements over the off-season?
As it is, we’ll probably stick our fingers in our ears, sing Baby Shark or something else mindless (doo-do, doo-doo-do), and resolve to hang on tightly to our predictions for the season.
If we don’t, then we’ve doomed ourselves to 22 consecutive weeks of readjustments ahead of us.
Then again, maybe that’s what makes this game so much fun.
With the infinite benefit of nine whole games under our belts, let’s forecast the next nine.
Collingwood vs Richmond
ELO-Following Football says Tigers by 10.5. The Tigers are favored by the Percentage/HFA method as well, which is the simplest prediction of all: take the team with the better percentage, and if they’re within 10 per cent, take the home field advantage.
Neither team looked superb last week, but neither looked terrible, either. The difference in records is probably just the difference in opponents.
Before the season, I’d have picked Richmond, thinking they’ve had six months to think about that prelim final – and I’m still picking them, and ten points feels about right to me.
Sydney vs Adelaide
ELO-FF says Swans by four, and Percentage/HFA agrees.
The opening odds favour Adelaide, so I’d jump on them before they figure this out.
Adelaide took a shellacking last week, between Doedee’s ACL and the other less severe injuries. The Swans aren’t superior to the Crows generally, but they’re hitting them at the right time. We’re taking the Swans by four as well.
St Kilda vs Essendon
ELO-FF favors Essendon by 22, while Percentage/HFA likes the Saints.
Even having helped develop the Following Football rating system, I know its flaws, and one of those flaws is that it doesn’t make fast changes from a single game, when it’s not a player in or out.
Essendon looked abysmal on Sunday, and during the JLT as well.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
St Kilda may not have been brilliant last weekend, but they looked a far sight better than the Dons did. At least take the points for St Kilda, and if you’ve got the guts, take the Saints outright.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton
ELO-FF picks the Power by 43 points; Percentage/HFA likes Port as well.
I struggle to see Carlton going farther down to Port Adelaide than they did to Richmond.
Port’s probably better than Carlton, but 43 is too many points. The 1-39 point spread for the Power is where I’d go.
Geelong vs Melbourne
ELO-FF says Geelong by ten, and Percentage/HFA likes the Cats, too.
So do I – and I might not have despite the numbers had I not seen both teams play last weekend.
Melbourne just didn’t look ready to answer when Port put the pressure on them, and Geelong looks ready to put the pressure on them.
I’ve seen writers react as if it was all Gawn. I disagree. That pressure may have started at the centre bounce, but it extended across the oval.
The Cats may not have the strongest six in any particular region, but they have competence across the field. Geelong by more than ten.
West Coast vs GWS
ELO-FF says West Coast by ten; but Percentage/HFA prefers the Giants.
The way GWS looked last week, it’s hard not to pick them. But West Coast at home is another beast entirely – and so is GWS on the road.
I’m going to hold my breath and take the Eagles by less than ten.
North Melbourne vs Brisbane
ELO-FF defies the oddsmakers and says Lions by 3.5, and Percentage/HFA likes Brisbane, too.
Unlike the last game, there’s too much in Brisbane’s game – and too little in North Melbourne’s defence in particular – to pick any other way. The Lions will run all over the Kangaroos this week.
Hawthorn vs Bulldogs
ELO-FF prefers the Hawks by 21 points, and Percentage/HFA also takes Hawthorn.
Hawthorn should win – we should have all known would come out with a team that looks threatening yet again.
(Image: AAP Image/Joe Castro)
But the glimpses of speed and pressure that the Dogs showed at times over their last four games – Round 23 against Richmond last August, two JLT games, and the victory against Sydney – make it hard to just dismiss them as an automatic win for even the very good teams, and it’s not entirely clear yet whether Hawthorn is cleanly in that category yet.
Still, Hawthorn by 1-39 for me.
Gold Coast vs Fremantle
ELO-FF says it’ll be Freo by nine, and Percentage/HFA likes the purple as well.
The opening odds I saw said the Dockers were favored by 32.5 points. I don’t care what you may have seen in that game Sunday: there is NO way I would give that many points away on the Dockers against a VFL at this stage.
And Gold Coast, if you’ve been watching them in the last month, is no VFL team.
They may not threaten to make the eight this season, and possibly not the next, but they were the ones running down the Saints in the last term on Sunday, despite their claim to be fitter than everyone else.
They ought to have at least two premiership points – if not four – had the calls gone their way towards the end of the game. They certainly showed they won’t be trifled with on most game days.
Being young, they’ll still have a couple of routs thrown at them on the road this year – but this is their home opener.
Fremantle is not routing them. If the spread’s closer to 32 than nine, bet the Suns to cover. If you had the guts to take the Saints outright against Essendon, maybe you have the guts to take Gold Coast here. I don’t.
Last week
The Buffalo: 3/9, or 4/11 if you count the women’s finals. I’d rather add that to my AFLW totals, which are 27 of 37 and counting.
ELO-Following Football: 3/9 as well. The same three, in fact: Richmond, GWS, and Kilda.
Percentage/Home Field Advantage: 5/9, but then the average across most sites was in that 3-5 range last week. We’ll all get better.
Finally, here are the updated meta-ratings, a combination of eight of the most reliable computed rating systems for the AFL, modulated to a 0-100 scale for easy combination.
As you can see, there’s been plenty of movement!
Meta-Ratings following Round 1
1. Richmond (1-0, rating of 75.79, no change from last week)
2. GWS (1-0, rating of 75.35, up from sixth last week)
3. Geelong (1-0, rating of 72.38, up from fourth last week)
4. Hawthorn (1-0, rating of 68.16, up from eighth)
5. Collingwood (0-1, rating of 66.17, no change)
6. Melbourne (0-1, rating of 65.25, down from third)
7. Port Adelaide (1-0, rating of 63.53, up from 11th)
8. West Coast (0-1, rating of 62.41, down from second)
9. Sydney (0-1, rating of 55.01, up from tenth)
10. Adelaide (0-1, rating of 53.69, down from seventh)
11. Essendon (0-1, rating of 51.95, down from ninth)
12. Brisbane (1-0, rating of 51.77, up from 13th)
13. Fremantle (1-0, rating of 45.03, up from 16th)
14. Western Bulldogs (1-0, rating of 44.49, no change)
15. North Melbourne (0-1, rating of 42.83, down from 12th)
16. St Kilda (1-0, rating of 35.98, down from 15th)
17. Gold Coast (0-1, rating of 20.49, no change)
18. Carlton (0-1, rating of 14.55, no change)
While the bottom two positions may not have moved in the rankings, both meta-ratings have improved several points, as has that of the Bulldogs.
The teams with the most volatility between the different ranking services would be the major movers: Essendon, who looked so bad on Sunday, has a variance (P) value over 500 when you compare the eight ratings it receives, which ranged from sixth down to last place.
West Coast, Melbourne, Fremantle, and North also have variances above 200, which means the different rating systems don’t yet agree on where to place them.
One of them is simply the team’s percentage on the ladder, which only measures the effects of one game, whereas some of the ratings carry a deep history with them into the new season.
Oddly, though, the lowest variation comes from the Power, which is consistently in the 55-70 percentile range from all sources once they’ve been modulated.
Their variance is a miniscule 28.4, even less than Richmond and Carlton, which remained ensconced at each end of the rankings.
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