It’s only Round 1. It’s a phrase footy journalists throw around liberally as a justification for their opinions, yet its meaning is lost among most of the footy world.
Fremantle are not flag fancies, Essendon isn’t a safe tip for the wooden spoon and West Coast isn’t likely to crash out of the top eight come finals time.
Whilst Round 1 is certainly helpful in gaging where a team is at it isn’t season defining by any means. A premier example of this is North’s Round 1 loss last year to a Gold Coast outfit that would go on to win another measly three games for the remainder of the season.
In comparison, it took until the penultimate round of the season for North to be ruled out of a top eight finish. They came ninth behind a star-studded Cats outfit not to be sniffed at.
This season has again seen North Melbourne start the season slow, this time with a 82-point loss to cellar-dwellers Fremantle. Again, people are questioning whether their list is fast enough, talented enough – and most of all capable enough. Fans tend to have short memories when it comes to the seasonal trends of teams that aren’t their own, and the response to the Kanga’s loss displays this.
Yes the team played horribly, yes the loss was rancid and no-one in the squad should feel assured of their spot going into Round 1, and North should be duly criticised. But even a loss as diabolical as this doesn’t rule out this team from yet again displaying it’s tenacity and challenging for a finals berth.
In writing this article it was hard to leave out my North Melbourne bias, but perhaps within the Blue and White haze that addles my mind I have found clarity. AFL.com didn’t like my ‘burning question’ for 2019, but especially in the wake of Round 1 I stand by it – ‘will the Roos hit their groove soon enough to make the 2019 finals series?’
Round 1 certainly doesn’t bode well for how soon this will happen, but as they have done for quite some time now, the boys in Blue and White will eventually bounce back and become a formidable opponent for those who face them.
Hopefully this happens before Round 5, perhaps an optimistic prediction, but they cannot afford go another season of racing from behind by the byes. Hearts to hearts and hands to hands, beneath the blue and white we stand.
P.S – If Scott Thompson isn’t the biggest inclusion of Round 2 then I don’t know what is
Larry1950
Guest
If you believe the form, the Roos are in trouble but I'm wary of the Lions again getting away to a sluggish start. They were lucky to hang in there last week & then the WCE folded because of key players missing. Last season, the Lions had quite a few really bad starts.
Davo
Guest
Tyson is solid and has good experience however we have enough of those type of players and need a player with a point of difference like Ahern. Need to persist with LDU and put more games into him as he has the skill set to be a very good player. Unfortunately Tyson needs to be the player to go and I would have Jed Anderson in front of him as well when he is back from injury. Norths lacked Jed Anderson manic energy against Fremantle.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I'm with you. I thought North would beat Freo basically because I don't think Freo will be strong this year. The size of the loss concerns me a bit but I'm not sure all that much should change in my estimations. I had Freo winning 7 games and North winning 13. The model I use is out by less than 2.5 games 90% of the time. So if I'm a bit under on Freo and a bit over on North and Freo win 9 and North win 11 that is still a plausible outcome. North's games before the bye are where they can distinguish themselves. If you're going with a basic approach like Should Lose, Should Win and 50/50 they have mostly should wins and 50/50 games. People will get excited about Brisbane over North this week but I'd stick fat with North - at Docklands think they should bounce back.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Agree on Tyson - I think we've seen enough there. Surprised to see he's played over 100 games.
Davo
Guest
It's just not the pathetic effort and margin of the loss that concerns me its their lack of depth of in back half that concerns me. Ed Vicker Willis whom has showed a lot of promise is now out for the year and Majak Daw may not play this year. If Tarrant or Thompson go down they are in a world of trouble. The only back up plan is Sam Durdin whom is out for a few more weeks and who has not shown in the past that he can make the grade in AFL. Durdin is playing for his career. I think Polec and Hall will be good additions down the track and they have to play Ahern and not Tyson who is a depth player.