One of the difficult things about assessing teams early in the season is knowing when to forget about your expectations and trust your eyes.
Round 2 is too soon to throw all of the preseason work out the window, but there were still things to learn from Round 1.
The Swans got outmuscled by the Dogs for a half until Luke Parker flexed his and got his team back in the game.
Too much is left to too few in the Sydney midfield, with Parker and Josh Kennedy carrying an unhealthy load.
Jake Lloyd is a fine player and was among their best in Round 1, but does most of his work on the outside and behind centre – as he should.
The two names commonly linked as the leaders of the Sydney midfield’s Generation Next are Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills.
John Longmire has been reluctant to move Mills from the backline. In his 56 games he has just 35 clearances. A midfield shift appears unlikely.
Heeney presents a greater conundrum. Lance Franklin looked well off the pace against the Bulldogs, leaving Heeney as the Swans’ most dangerous forward.
Isaac Heeney of the Swans flies high (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
With Geelong recruit Dan Menzel out of action for a good while yet, we should expect Heeney to continue to spend at least as much time forward as he does in the middle.
It leaves Sydney uncharacteristically thin around the ball, an area the Crows will expect to exploit with Rory Sloane, Bryce Gibbs and the Brothers Crouch.
Much like it’s strange for the Swans to have questions over their midfield, the biggest concerns on the Crows coming out of Round 1 are on their forward line.
Josh Jenkins was a non-factor and Taylor Walker looked rigid and robotic. At his best, Tex hits the ball hard on the lead and then equally hard with one of the best boots in modern footy.
At his worst, he can’t get separation and can’t impact when the ball hits the deck. It’s been a while since we saw his best.
Perhaps the Crows were worked out by a mastermind coach who had weeks to concoct a plan that would negate their spread, or perhaps Father Time has come for them.
The last time these sides met was in Round 5 last seasons and like tonight, the game was played at the SCG. Despite being without Eddie Betts, Sloane and the Crouches, Adelaide pulled off an ten-point upset win.
Rory Laird grabbed the three Brownlow votes thanks to 30 disposals, five rebound-50s and five inside-50s. The third Rory – Atkins – had 24 touches and three goals, and Walker was the game’s high goalscorer with four.
Jarrad McVeigh was among the Swans’ best in a losing side with 26 touches and seven inside-50s. The 33-year-old remains one of his team’s most important players. He’s never had a lot of pace and has even less of it now, but he’s poised with ball in hand and one of the competition’s best kicks.
Kennedy and Parker combined for just 30 touches last time these teams met. That won’t get it done tonight.
Both sides have made a couple of changes. The Swans bring in Ben Ronke, who will give his side a handy goalkicking threat as well as important tackling pressure, and Irish fourth-gamer Colin O’Riordan.
They come in at the expense of the omitted Jordan Dawson and the injured Heath Grundy, who would have been fortunate to keep his spot if healthy after a stinker in Round 1.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The Crows made a pair of forced changes. Interceptor Tom Doedee is done for the year with an ACL injury and veteran ball-winner Richard Douglas is out for more than a month with a serious ankle injury.
Paul Seedsman comes in to provide some dash and Kyle Hartigan as a defensive pillar.
Just how they try to replace Doedee’s intercepting – which replaced Jake Lever’s intercepting – will be interesting. Alex Keath could be freed up by Hartigan’s inclusion, or perhaps they could turn to a smaller player such as Laird or even Gibbs, who has shown in the past he’s more than capable in the defensive third and would add another damaging ball user out of defence.
Last week showed what a futile exercise tipping winners can be, but I’m not yet ready to write off the Crows despite a poor first-up effort.
I think Adelaide will get up by a couple of goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
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