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This Saturday, we head to Rosehill Gardens, with the calm before the storm, which is of course the Autumn Championships.
We still have a brilliant card in store for us here though, with two Group 1 races and in total eight Group races on the card.
Hopefully this article can find you some winners!
Race 1
We kick off the day with the Baillieu Handicap at Group 3 level for the two-year-olds.
It seems a race between the four favoured runners in the market, and I landed on La Tene.
She goes up against the boys here, but she’s been brilliant winning her last two against the likes of Dalasan and Fling in Melbourne.
She draws wide, but it isn’t a big concern. Due to the lack of speed in the race, James McDonald should be able to get a nice sit on the leader, and then it’s up to the filly to get past it.
Bellevue Hill seems the danger. He gapped them in the Black Opal preview on debut, and then finished half a length of Yes Yes Yes in the Todman last start.
He’ll get a nice lead, but the 1400 metres is a query.
Rome looks like he’s overs. He just missed against Sun city at Doomben, before beating all home bar the winner in the Black Opal.
We should see his best stepping up to 1400 metres.
Recommended bet: Each way play on No.3 La Tene.
Race 2
The second on the program is the Neville Selwood Stakes over 2000 metres at Group 3 level.
Very open race here, but I’m siding with Main Stage at good value. He’s rock hard fit now after three starts in this preparation, and he’s been crying out for this rise in trip in each of his last two starts over a mile.
There looks to be a pretty strong tempo set in front which suits him, and if he can bring the form that saw him finish five lengths off them in the Blamey, he’ll be hard to hold out.
Moss ‘n’ Dale looks the big danger. He’s had two runs in this preparation, but both were basically at Group 1 level. He’s two from three third up, and he won a Ground 3 over this distance on a heavy track last preparation. Good chance.
Harlem won well in the Australian cup after some average lead up runs, but he draws to do no work, and he may be peaking at the right time.
Recommended bet: Something small each way on No.10 Main Stage.
Race 3
The Tulloch stakes, over 2000 metres for the colts and geldings, at Group 2 level is the next on the card. Looks a three horse race this, and it’s very hard to see Madison County losing.
He’s a Group 1 winner in New Zealand over a mile, and his first Australian run was full of merit. He was really strong through the line in the Randwick Guineas, making up lengths on the likes of Nakeeta Jane, and he’s crying out for 2000 metres.
There will be a pretty slow pace set up front, but he’ll be far too good for them. One of the better bets on the card.
Cossetot has been brilliant this time in. He won the Tasmanian Derby three starts back, before finishing in the placings behind Global Exchange in his last two starts. He’ll get a nice run on the speed, and be hard to run down.
The other kiwi, In A Twinkling, is an outside chance. He narrowly missed in both the Avondale Guineas, and the New Zealand Derby, and he’ll get a nice run on the speed as well.
Recommended bet: Sizeable win bet on No.1 Madison County.
Madison County is a good bet this weekend.
Race 4
The Emancipation Stake at Group 2 level over 1500 metres for the fillies and mares is the next race to assess.
I’ll be having something each way on Daysee Doom at the $14 quote. She resumed well, and was holding ground in the Millie Fox Stakes.
This race sets up perfectly for Andrew Adkins to dictate the speed, and she absolutely loves Rosehill. She’s three from six second up, and she’ll be hard to run down.
Alizee is the class horse in the race, being a multiple Group 1 winner, but she carries a big weight, and has been up for a while now. The sit and sprint nature of the race won’t suit her, but she has the class edge over them, so she can still win. Can’t take her in the red though.
Princess Posh has beaten a majority of the other horses in this race, this preparation, and it’s hard to see that changing today. Don’t dismiss her.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on No.2 Daysee Doom.
Race 5
The Star Kingdom Stakes, at Group 3 level, over 1200 metres is the next on the program.
Pretty open race here, but I’m siding with Trekking. He won the Testa Rossa in the spring, before having no luck in his next two starts at listed level. He trialled well, beating Virdine, and then running third to Kementari, before running home strongly behind Easy Eddie resuming.
Ideally, the track will dry up for him, and he’ll be the one running over them late with the run under his belt.
I’ll be saving on Charge. He won the Red Anchor at Group 3 level last spring, before going out for a break.
He resumed well in the Eskimo Prince, running a length off Gem Song after travelling three wide the trip, and he was obviously just outclassed at Group 1 level last start. He’s third up now, and if he can recapture his best, he’ll go close in this.
New Zealander Ardrossan is the best of the rest. He finished half a length off Melody Belle in a Group 1 before coming out here, and he’ll get a nice run on the speed.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.8 Trekking, with a saver on No.12 Charge.
Race 6
The best race by a fair way on the card comes here, in the Vinery Stud Stakes for the three-year-old fillies.
I’m steering clear of the favourite at $2.70, and I’m backing two of them here, and one of them is Nakeeta Jane. She’s been amazing this preparation, winning the Light Fingers, and then the Surround Stakes over Fundamentalist.
She finished a length off The Autumn Sun last start in the Guineas, and if she can produce that run again, she goes very close in this.
I’ll be saving on Scarlet Dream. She stays under notice this filly. Her closing sectionals resuming at this track were outstanding, and she closed off really well again in the Kembla Grange Classic, to finish a length off Pohutukawa, who is a lot shorter in the market here. She’ll run a very good race third up and rising in trip.
Pohutukawa is the best of the rest. She was incredibly unlucky in the Surround Stakes, and then beat my second pick in the Kembla Grange Classic last start. She’ll go well.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.1 Nakeeta Jane, and I’m saving on No.11 Scarlet Dream. Playing exotics around No.1, No.11, No.2, No.9 and No.8.
Race 7
The Tancred Stakes, formerly known as the BMW, is the last Group 1 on the program, at weight for age conditions over 2400 metres.
The red hot favourite, Avilius, looks hard to beat. He won all the lead up races on path to the Australian Cup with ease, before failing in the big one, going down by a length.
He bounced back to winning ways in the Ranvet, winning by two lengths. He can handle all conditions, and he should be winning.
Yogi looks next best. He won really well over 1800 metres at Caulfield, before finishing three lengths off them in the Australian Cup. He’ll appreciate the rise to 2400 metres, and run well.
Ventura Storm at mammoth odds is the best roughie in the race. He only finished two lengths off them in the Mornington Cup after having to do a lot of work to get there on the speed, and he should get an easier run on the speed today.
If the track is favouring those near the front, he could surprise.
Recommended bet: It’s either back No.1 Avilius, or leave the race alone. I’m opting for the latter and staying out of this one.
Race 8
The Doncaster Prelude at Group 3 level over 1500 metres comes here in the eighth.
I’m going to stick with Seaway here. He won two from two this preparation, before failing to deal with the heavy track last start in the Ajax Stakes.
The track should be a lot drier this weekend, and he draws well again from barrier six.
He’ll get the sweet run in the race, and will have no excuses this time. Looks a good bet.
Siege of Quebec seems the logical danger. His form last preparation, running third in a Group 1 behind Land of Plenty, is a very good form line for this.
He wasn’t brilliant resuming in the Newcastle Newmarket, but he’s got the class edge over a lot of these, and he’ll get a nice run on the seed from barrier five.
Mask of Time is the best of the rest. He got beaten by a length against Seaway resuming, and then was nosed out by the talented Fifty Stars in the Ajax Stakes.
He’ll be fitter now third up, and can run a good race in the lead.
Recommended bet: Backing No.8 Seaway on an each way basis.
Race 9
The ‘lucky last’ on the card is finally here, with a Benchmark 88 handicap over 1400 metres.
Star of the Seas has been in good form this preparation, and I’m sticking with him here.
He flashed home behind both Archedemus and Mossman George, before being far too good for them two weeks back at this track. He’s got the fitness edge over a lot of these, and as long as the track is playing fairly, he’s the one to beat again.
I’ll be saving on Take It Intern at a big price. He ran within a length of Cliff’s Edge and Sirconni over this trip when resuming in Melbourne last preparation, before winning with ease at Caulfield over 1700 metres in his next start.
He trialled well a few weeks ago at Wyong, and he’s only ever missed a placing once from four starts when fresh. If they put the heat on early, he’ll be hard to hold out.
Mahalangur is the best of the rest. He ran two lengths off Star of the Seas resuming last start, and he draws pretty well to get a nice run on the speed. He should improve off that first up run.
Recommended bet: Win bet on No.10 Star of the Seas, with a saver on No.2 Take It Intern.
Best bet: Race 3 No.1 Madison County.
Second best bet: Race 1 No.3 La Tene.
Best value: Race 2 No.10 Main Stage.
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