Coming into Round 3 of the AFL season, here’s the pecking order for the 18 clubs in both our ‘ELO-Following Football’ ratings and the composite meta-ranking of eight distinct computer systems.
Let’s look at the nine games coming up this weekend.
Thursday night, Adelaide Oval
Betting favourite: Adelaide by eight. And falling.
ELO-Following Football: Geelong by 2.5 points.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes Geelong. The Cats have the higher percentage and are therefore the favourites. This simple system says bet the better percentage; if the percentages are within ten points, then just pick the home team. It’s a disturbingly accurate method.
The buffalo says: Adelaide looked good against Sydney last week, but I’m afraid almost everyone’s going to look good against Sydney this season. Meanwhile, Geelong not only beat a questionable Demons side last week, but they also defeated a Collingwood team in Week 1 that looked strong against Richmond in Week 2 and sit atop all eight of our rating metrics this week.
I was cynical about the Cats this season and I’m still not sure that they have the horses to make a real run in 2019, but they definitely should be the favourite this week, and by more than a goal, even on a day’s less rest.
Friday night, MCG
Betting favourite: Melbourne by 16.
ELO-Following Football: Melbourne by nine.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes Melbourne.
The Buffalo says: This is a painfully important game for these two iconic Victorian teams. Two of the seven clubs universally assumed to be locks for finals this season, either Essendon or Melbourne will leave this game 0-3, probably dead last on the ladder and only a Swans 2017 or a Richmond 2013-style miracle will bring them back to finals in 2019.
So which club is less pathetic at the moment? I don’t know. The Demons had one decent half in Week 1, while Essendon played very slightly better in the second half on Saturday against the Saints. If I had to pick a winner, I suppose I’d more faith in Melbourne, but if it’s a money line? Hey, I think the Dees and Dons are both very likely to look just as bad this Saturday as they did last week. In that case, your payoff would be better with the underdog. That’s Essendon.
Saturday afternoon, Marvel Stadium
Betting favourite: Sydney by 16.
ELO-Following Football: Sydney is favoured by 15.7 points. So, yeah, 16.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes Carlton.
The Buffalo says: This is the less-publicised Loser’s Bowl of the weekend, the two 0-2 teams that have shown more signs of life than the previous two clubs. Carlton was expected to sit in the bottom two this year, but they’ve at least provided a challenge for both of their opponents so far. Sydney was expected to have a few issues, and they were competitive in their upset loss to the Dogs and last week against Adelaide.
I think the spreads are about right – both teams are playing decently, but Sydney’s a couple of goals more polished than Carlton’s right now. And if Sydney and Melbourne both win, they play each other next week for the Loser’s Bowl hypothetical title, and the champion gets the right to stay in the race for finals.
The Swans are struggling (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Saturday afternoon, Spotless Stadium
Betting favourite: Giants by 8. I know, it doesn’t sound right, does it?
ELO-Following Football: GWS are 8.5 point preferences in our system.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes GWS as well.
The Buffalo says: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Suddenly, with no ALex Rance and no Jack Riewoldt the Tigers are decidedly ordinary and in danger of falling out of the race before May. The Giants are really good at home and Richmond is simply going to be working on reworking their structure inside both arcs on the fly. The Giants should win by 20, 30 or more.
Saturday night, The Gabba
Betting favourite: Unbelievably, Brisbane by 8.5.
ELO-Following Football: Brisbane by 7.5.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes Brisbane as well.
The Buffalo says: I am the biggest fan of 2019 Brisbane there is, but I’m struggling to favour them over this Port team, even at home. The Power have looked reasonably solid, admittedly against two 0-2 teams, while the Lions had their struggles for three quarters against a highly mediocre Kangaroos team.
I pray I’m wrong – the idea that these kids leap to the top of the ladder in Round 3 and stay there all season after what they’ve been through the last few seasons tickles me just imagining it! – but barring a teal revelation of injury, I’m taking Po…
Nope. I can’t do it. I’m hopping on the Brisbane train, come heck or medium water. Let’s go, Lions!
Brisbanes’ Lincoln McCarthy and Charles Cameron (Jono Searle/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Saturday night, MCG
Betting favourite: Collingwood by 15.
ELO-Following Football: Collingwood are 16.5 point favourites, mostly because of the home-field advantage.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes the Magpies.
The Buffalo says: This could be the game of the weekend. Both are 1-1, both rosters are still intact (unlike rivals Richmond and Adelaide), and there’s a little recent history involved. You may have read about it, it was in all the papers. In fact they’re each coming off games that smelled like their respective preliminary finals last spring, the Magpies even defeating the same opponent. Based on that, it’s hard not to think it’ll be closer than 15 – it’s hard not to say it’ll be the Eagles by five in fact.
If Dom Sheed wins the game with two minutes to go, check your time turner pendant. If you’re offered any point spread of two or more goals either way, take it. I’m picking Collingwood to get revenge and win late, but taking the Eagles wouldn’t be stupid either. It should be close, or at least it’s equally likely to tip either way.
Sunday afternoon, Marvel Stadium
Betting favourite: the Bulldogs by 34. That’s a lot of points.
ELO-Following Football: Bulldogs by 35. Also a lot.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes the Doggies, of course.
The Buffalo says: The first two games of the Suns season feel like the last couple of years for their Queensland neighbours. They’re learning how to be competitive but they don’t have the experience to always reach what they really want to accomplish. Their third quarter on Sunday was complete domination, but they kicked ten consecutive behinds while their opponents demonstrated how to kick six-pointers. The fourth quarter wasn’t as overwhelming, but Coleman Medal leader Alex Sexton kicked the goal they needed to win. (When was that title on the Gold Coast before?)
This might be another of those games – Gold Coast could very well be within a goal in the fourth quarter and hold on for the win or they could watch the quickly recalling 2016 Doggies pull away from them in the end with a Josh Schache set kick and a piece of Bontemagic.
Footscray should be favoured. But 34 is too many points. Maybe 20. More likely a dozen.
Marcus Bontempelli. (Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Sunday afternoon, MCG
Betting favourite: Hawthorn by 14.
ELO-Following Football: Hawks by 22.4.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes Hawthorn as well.
The Buffalo says: A margin of 14 points seems awfully low. I mean, really, really low. I know the Hawks collapsed in the fourth on Sunday, but I haven’t seen anything in North that gives me confidence in them in any way. Their defence has been decimated and Hawthorn’s front end is strong enough to take advantage of that dire weakness. It will probably take a revolutionary performance by the Kangas at some point before I’m willing to pick them again in any fashion. Hawthorn plus the points.
Sunday afternoon, Optus Stadium
Betting favourite: Fremantle is a 25-point favourite.
ELO-Following Football: The spread should be 10.5 points instead.
The ‘percentage/home field’ system likes Fremantle at home.
The Buffalo says: The Dockers are the better team today. The Saints might end up better by season’s end, but right now Fremantle should be the favourites. A margin of 25 points seems too meaty to me, but the Saints are the kind of team that could fade badly at the end and lose a previously close game by 50. Go ahead and take Fremantle at home, even with that kind of margin if you have to. Of course, if you can find a better line, take it.
However, if you believe in comparison testing from previous rounds, take the road team, because apparently Saints and Suns and Dockers. That ignores home field advantage, though.
As a reminder, all these recommendations are worth exactly nothing. Wagering real money’s a good way to ruin your life and take all the fun out of sport. But this is an enjoyable way to think about the relative strengths of teams, as long as you don’t try to make money at it.
ELO-FF, the percentage/HFA system and the Buffalo all went 4-5, although I would’ve cashed on six of my hypothetical bets picking St Kilda and Gold Coast to cover.
ELO-FF and the Buffalo are both 7-11 for the season conveniently (see what I did there?). The percentage/HFA system is 9-9. Across the 19 predictors I’m tracking the average score for the season is only 7.26 correct out of 18, with no-one above 50 per cent. It’s been a good year for the bookies so far.
Having your pet dog choose the winner would have been more accurate than we ‘experts’ have been so far. Picking the cuter mascot or asking your blind neighbour who hates sports or using random digits of pi would all have likely produced half the right answers out of dumb luck. So, needless to say, don’t bet money because of anything a Buffalo told you.
But we’ll all get better. We promise!
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