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How is David Warner's imminent return viewed by the punters?

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Expert
4th April, 2019
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Drop David Warner’s name into the conversation and there are three distinct reactions.

The most popular is, “Thank heavens he’s back, he breathes life into any format”.

The second is that he has to bat down the list as selectors can’t change the hugely successful Aaron Finch-Usman Khawaja combination.

And the predictable third, albeit the smallest percentage, is the great Australian knocker in action saying that Warner should have been banned for life because he brought a toxic element to the team.

Let’s dump the third reaction into the trash can of history because the David Warner of today sure won’t be the David Warner of yesterday, when the toxic claim was valid.

His past sledging and general behaviour has cost him dearly in terms of his standing in the community, a painful year of rubbish cricket and the loss of millions of contract dollars.

Warner did the crime and the time. Now it’s a clean sheet.

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When he resumes at the World Cup he’ll be a very different international in attitude, but his batting will be the same: simply dynamic.

It would be fair to say Warner and Chris Gayle are the two most explosive batsmen in world cricket, both capable of deciding the outcome of games on their own.

In the ODI arena, Gayle has hit 25 tons in 282 innings, including 1093 fours and 314 sixes. But Warner has a super strike rate with 96.55, compared to Gayle’s 87.14.

It’s that strike rate that answers the question of whether he should return to open and upset Aaron Finch and Usman Khawaja’s combination, which only really came about with Warner’s suspension.

There’s a set of ODI stats that confirm Warner is a must selection as opener. First-dig scores of 340-plus enjoy a 93 per cent success rate, while a first-innings tally of 300 to 339 wins 84 per cent of matches; 280 to 299, 71 per cent; 260 to 279, 55 per cent; and less than 260 just 45 per cent. Scores around 300 are mighty hard to reach if the top order gets too far behind the required strike rate early.

David Warner Australia ODI Cricket 2017

(AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)

It will be a rare occasion if the Warner-Finch combination falls behind. Their individual ODI career stats are remarkably similar.

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Warner has batted 104 times with four not-outs, Finch 105 with two.

Both are career openers, but Warner has batted once at five, Finch once at three.

Warner’s posted 14 tons and 17 half-centuries, Finch 13 and 21.

Warner’s top score is 179, Finch 153*.

Warner’s strike rate is 96.55, Finch 88.16.

Warner’s scored 4343 runs, Finch 4052.

Warner’s average is 43.43, Finch 39.33

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Warner has struck 454 fours and 70 sixes for 2236 runs, Finch 406 and 94 for 2188.

There will be an added bonus with Warner back – he always runs the first hard, ever alert for the extras with a misfield. Finch has fallen into the bad habit of ambling through the first, never ready for a mistake in the field. Warner will correct that failing.

And there’ll be a second bonus in the field with Warner the equal of Glenn Maxwell, both among the best in the business.

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The downside is Khawaja is also a first-choice opener, having batted there 20 times to average 53.63 with a strike rate of 86. And he’s batted ten times at three for an average 24.33 and a strike rate of 71.80.

But in all fairness Khawaja’s last ten digs as an opener against India and Pakistan have netted 655 runs at an 86 strike rate. It’s the best he’s ever batted at ODI level, but his strike rate isn’t good enough to remain an opener, so first drop will be his station at the World Cup.

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