Super Rugby super stats preview: Round 7 debrief and Round 8 predictions

Roar Rookie

5th April, 2019

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Rugby4Cast

Roar Rookie

5th April, 2019

1868 Reads

Yes, yes, yes. I know what you’re going to say. It was a difficult round okay!

In our defence, we did say a lot of the games were 50:50. But the one banker, the one dead cert we had going for us, was that the Waratahs would beat the Sunwolves.

Surely, the Crusader conquering Tahs would come good for us when all else failed. So much for that.

Round 7 debrief

Super Rugby Round 7 Predicted vs Actual
Season Accuracy 28 from 46: 60.9%			Season margin of error: 13.52
Weekend Accuracy: 2 correct from 6: 33.3%			week margin of error 15.50
Teams	Actual score	predicted score	correct	margin of error
Hurricanes	8	27	No	28
Crusaders	32	23	No	28
Waratahs	29	49	No	19
Sunwolves	31	32	No	19
Jaguares	27	27	Yes	2
Chiefs	30	32	Yes	2
Sharks	16	24	No	10
Bulls	19	17	No	10
Blues	24	24	Yes	11
Stormers	9	22	Yes	11
Reds	13	34	No	23
Rebels	32	30	No	23

So, for what it’s worth, here are the algorithm’s predictions for the eighth round of Super Rugby. We’ve thrown out the computer and used a dartboard instead. It couldn’t be much worse.

Round 8 matches and predictions

Super Rugby Round 8 predictions
Season accuracy: 28 correct from 46: 60.9%			Season Margin of Error: 13.52
Teams	Predicted Score	Chance of Winning	Prediction
Lions	34	71.80%	Lions win by 11
Sharks	24	27%	Lions win by 11
Highlanders	27	52.20%	Highlanders win by 3
Hurricanes	24	46.30%	Highlanders win by 3
Reds	21	47.50%	Stormers win by 2
Stormers	23	50.40%	Stormers win by 2
Bulls	34	74%	Bulls win by 8
Jaguares	26	24%	Bulls win by 8
Crusaders	45	89.80%	Crusaders win by 22
Brumbies	23	8.90%	Crusaders win by 22
Rebels	32	59%	Rebels win by 10
Sunwolves	22	41%	Rebels win by 10
Blues	28	53.10%	Blues win by 3
Waratahs	25	45.50%	Blues win by 3

Highlanders vs Hurricanes

The Highlanders welcome the men from windy Wellington in what always tends to be an exciting encounter. The Highlanders are coming off a bye and the Hurricanes are coming off a 32-8 hiding from the Crusaders in the previous round.

So how do these two teams stack up against each other? Take a look below.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Highlanders	10	4	6	0	188	258	40%	18.8
Hurricanes	10	6	4	0	258	188	60%	25.8

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
08/03/2019	Hurricanes	25	22	Highlanders
01/06/2018	Highlanders	30	14	Hurricanes
24/03/2018	Hurricanes	29	12	Highlanders
18/03/2017	Hurricanes	41	15	Highlanders
27/05/2016	Hurricanes	27	20	Highlanders
05/03/2016	Highlanders	17	16	Hurricanes
04/07/2015	Hurricanes	14	21	Highlanders
05/06/2015	Hurricanes	56	20	Highlanders
20/03/2015	Highlanders	13	20	Hurricanes
16/05/2014	Hurricanes	16	18	Highlanders

The last game against the two sides went to the Hurricanes, just. They won 25-22 in Wellington earlier this year. Will we see another nail biter? It certainly is possible. The Algorithm has the Highlanders to win by three.

Reds vs Stormers

Both of these teams lost last round. The Reds came up short against the Rebels 13-32 at home, and the Stormers 24-9 against the Blues away. The Queensland outfit will be in Brisbane again and will be hoping to make up for their mistakes this time around.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Reds	10	3	7	0	190	242	30%	19
Stormers	10	7	3	0	242	190	70%	24.2

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
24/03/2018	Stormers	25	19	Reds
23/04/2016	Stormers	40	22	Reds
29/03/2014	Reds	22	17	Stormers
25/05/2013	Stormers	20	15	Reds
20/04/2012	Reds	13	23	Stormers
09/04/2011	Stormers	6	19	Reds
23/04/2010	Reds	16	13	Stormers
20/02/2009	Stormers	27	24	Reds
08/03/2008	Reds	16	34	Stormers
28/04/2007	Stormers	37	24	Reds

The last ten results are heavily in the Stormers favour, however the Reds’ last win against the South African side was at home. The algorithm has the Stormers to win by two.

Lions vs Sharks

The Lions are back where they have become accustomed to being: at the top of the South African conference with four wins and two losses. The Sharks, however, are third with three wins and as many losses.

The Lions lost last time out to the Sharks (in 2018) 31-24 away from home so will need to have a strong start.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Lions	10	7	3	0	242	204	70%	24.2
Sharks	10	3	7	0	204	242	30%	20.5

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
30/06/2018	Sharks	31	24	Lions
17/02/2018	Lions	26	19	Sharks
22/07/2017	Lions	23	21	Sharks
15/07/2017	Sharks	10	27	Lions
01/04/2017	Lions	34	29	Sharks
02/07/2016	Lions	37	10	Sharks
09/04/2016	Sharks	9	24	Lions
11/04/2015	Lions	23	21	Sharks
21/02/2015	Sharks	29	12	Lions
12/04/2014	Lions	12	25	Sharks

The Lions are heavy favourites, with the algorithm having the Lions down to win by a handy 11 points. However, the Sharks won their previous encounter, can they swing a repeat?

Crusaders vs Brumbies

The Crusaders put the Hurricanes to the sword in Round 7 and will be hoping to do the same against the Canberra side who are coming off a bye.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Crusaders	10	9	1	0	327	155%	90%	32.7
Brumbies	10	1	9	0	155	327%	10%	15.5

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
28/04/2018	Brumbies	8	21	Crusaders
25/02/2017	Crusaders	17	13	Brumbies
24/04/2016	Brumbies	14	40	Crusaders
13/06/2015	Brumbies	24	37	Crusaders
03/05/2014	Crusaders	40	20	Brumbies
05/05/2013	Brumbies	23	30	Crusaders
11/03/2011	Crusaders	52	10	Brumbies
14/05/2010	Crusaders	40	22	Brumbies
21/02/2009	Brumbies	18	16	Crusaders
15/02/2008	Crusaders	34	3	Brumbies

The Brumbies have suffered some large defeats this season, losing their recent matches 36-14 against the Reds and 43-13 to the Hurricanes, both games away from home.

The algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 22 points and as you can see from above, the Canterbury side have won nine out of their last ten. Will we see this run continue?

Blues vs Waratahs

The Blues are back and have won three games in a row! The last time the Auckland side won that many consecutive games was way back in 2012, so clearly they are doing something right.

The Waratahs will be wondering what went wrong against the Sunwolves after they became the first team to lose to the Japanese team on Australian soil.

Here are the latest results between these two outfits.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Blues	10	6	4	0	268	244	60%	26.8
Waratahs	10	4	6	0	244	268	40%	24.4

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
05/05/2018	Waratahs	21	24	Blues
06/05/2017	Waratahs	33	40	Blues
15/07/2016	Blues	34	28	Waratahs
28/03/2015	Waratahs	23	11	Blues
25/04/2014	Blues	21	13	Waratahs
24/03/2013	Waratahs	30	27	Blues
24/06/2011	Blues	26	13	Waratahs
16/04/2011	Blues	31	17	Waratahs
27/03/2010	Waratahs	39	32	Blues
27/03/2009	Blues	22	27	Waratahs

The algorithm has the Blues to win by three. They’ve had some fortune against the NSW side, winning the last three games, two of which were away from home. Can the Blues possibly get another and win four in a row?

Rebels vs Waratahs

Both teams won in Round 7, with the Sunwolves winning against the Waratahs the biggest shock of the weekend. However, the Rebels are at home and their supporters will be expecting a win here.

Here are the last results from these two outfits and as you can see it’s all Rebels.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Waratahs	10	8	2	0	332	217	80%	33.2
Rebels	10	2	8	0	217	332	20%	21.7

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
6/29/2018	Rebels	26	31	Waratahs
3/18/2018	Waratahs	51	27	Rebels
5/21/2017	Waratahs	50	23	Rebels
3/24/2017	Rebels	25	32	Waratahs
4/3/2016	Waratahs	17	21	Rebels
4/25/2015	Waratahs	18	16	Rebels
2/20/2015	Rebels	28	38	Waratahs
5/23/2014	Rebels	19	41	Waratahs
3/21/2014	Waratahs	32	8	Rebels
5/24/2013	Rebels	24	22	Waratahs

The algorithm has the Rebels to continue the 100% per cent win rate and to prevail by ten points.

Bulls vs Jaguares

Last round, the Bulls scraped past the Sharks in Durban and the Jaguares lost to the Chiefs in Argentina. The Bulls are sitting second in the South African conference and will be expecting to pick up the points in this fixture, as the Jaguares have lost three on the bounce.

Head to head

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Bulls	5	2	3	0	116	157	40%	23.2
Jaguares	5	3	2	0	157	116	60%	31.4

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
23/02/2019	Jaguares	27	12	Bulls
07/07/2018	Bulls	43	34	Jaguares
19/05/2018	Jaguares	54	24	Bulls
15/04/2017	Bulls	26	13	Jaguares
02/07/2016	Jaguares	29	11	Bulls

As you can see above, it’s mixed between these two sides with the home team winning each time. The Bulls are in familiar surrounds this time and the algorithm has them to win by eight.

What do you think? Looks like a close round of results. Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.

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Rugby4Cast

Roar Rookie

Rugby4Cast aims to provide a stats-based approach to rugby previews and look closely at the histories, rankings and form heading into matches.