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Super Rugby super stats preview: Round 7 debrief and Round 8 predictions

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Roar Rookie
5th April, 2019
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Yes, yes, yes. I know what you’re going to say. It was a difficult round okay!

In our defence, we did say a lot of the games were 50:50. But the one banker, the one dead cert we had going for us, was that the Waratahs would beat the Sunwolves.

Surely, the Crusader conquering Tahs would come good for us when all else failed. So much for that.

Round 7 debrief

Super Rugby Round 7 Predicted vs Actual
Season Accuracy 28 from 46: 60.9% Season margin of error: 13.52
Weekend Accuracy: 2 correct from 6: 33.3% week margin of error 15.50
Teams Actual score predicted score correct margin of error
Hurricanes 8 27 No 28
Crusaders 32 23
Waratahs 29 49 No 19
Sunwolves 31 32
Jaguares 27 27 Yes 2
Chiefs 30 32
Sharks 16 24 No 10
Bulls 19 17
Blues 24 24 Yes 11
Stormers 9 22
Reds 13 34 No 23
Rebels 32 30

So, for what it’s worth, here are the algorithm’s predictions for the eighth round of Super Rugby. We’ve thrown out the computer and used a dartboard instead. It couldn’t be much worse.

Round 8 matches and predictions

Super Rugby Round 8 predictions
Season accuracy: 28 correct from 46: 60.9% Season Margin of Error: 13.52
Teams Predicted Score Chance of Winning Prediction
Lions 34 71.80% Lions win by 11
Sharks 24 27%
Highlanders 27 52.20% Highlanders win by 3
Hurricanes 24 46.30%
Reds 21 47.50% Stormers win by 2
Stormers 23 50.40%
Bulls 34 74% Bulls win by 8
Jaguares 26 24%
Crusaders 45 89.80% Crusaders win by 22
Brumbies 23 8.90%
Rebels 32 59% Rebels win by 10
Sunwolves 22 41%
Blues 28 53.10% Blues win by 3
Waratahs 25 45.50%

Highlanders vs Hurricanes

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The Highlanders welcome the men from windy Wellington in what always tends to be an exciting encounter. The Highlanders are coming off a bye and the Hurricanes are coming off a 32-8 hiding from the Crusaders in the previous round.

So how do these two teams stack up against each other? Take a look below.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Highlanders 10 4 6 0 188 258 40% 18.8
Hurricanes 10 6 4 0 258 188 60% 25.8
Date Home Score Score Away
08/03/2019 Hurricanes 25 22 Highlanders
01/06/2018 Highlanders 30 14 Hurricanes
24/03/2018 Hurricanes 29 12 Highlanders
18/03/2017 Hurricanes 41 15 Highlanders
27/05/2016 Hurricanes 27 20 Highlanders
05/03/2016 Highlanders 17 16 Hurricanes
04/07/2015 Hurricanes 14 21 Highlanders
05/06/2015 Hurricanes 56 20 Highlanders
20/03/2015 Highlanders 13 20 Hurricanes
16/05/2014 Hurricanes 16 18 Highlanders

The last game against the two sides went to the Hurricanes, just. They won 25-22 in Wellington earlier this year. Will we see another nail biter? It certainly is possible. The Algorithm has the Highlanders to win by three.

Reds vs Stormers

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Both of these teams lost last round. The Reds came up short against the Rebels 13-32 at home, and the Stormers 24-9 against the Blues away. The Queensland outfit will be in Brisbane again and will be hoping to make up for their mistakes this time around.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Reds 10 3 7 0 190 242 30% 19
Stormers 10 7 3 0 242 190 70% 24.2
Date Home Score Score Away
24/03/2018 Stormers 25 19 Reds
23/04/2016 Stormers 40 22 Reds
29/03/2014 Reds 22 17 Stormers
25/05/2013 Stormers 20 15 Reds
20/04/2012 Reds 13 23 Stormers
09/04/2011 Stormers 6 19 Reds
23/04/2010 Reds 16 13 Stormers
20/02/2009 Stormers 27 24 Reds
08/03/2008 Reds 16 34 Stormers
28/04/2007 Stormers 37 24 Reds

The last ten results are heavily in the Stormers favour, however the Reds’ last win against the South African side was at home. The algorithm has the Stormers to win by two.

Lions vs Sharks

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The Lions are back where they have become accustomed to being: at the top of the South African conference with four wins and two losses. The Sharks, however, are third with three wins and as many losses.

The Lions lost last time out to the Sharks (in 2018) 31-24 away from home so will need to have a strong start.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Lions 10 7 3 0 242 204 70% 24.2
Sharks 10 3 7 0 204 242 30% 20.5
Date Home Score Score Away
30/06/2018 Sharks 31 24 Lions
17/02/2018 Lions 26 19 Sharks
22/07/2017 Lions 23 21 Sharks
15/07/2017 Sharks 10 27 Lions
01/04/2017 Lions 34 29 Sharks
02/07/2016 Lions 37 10 Sharks
09/04/2016 Sharks 9 24 Lions
11/04/2015 Lions 23 21 Sharks
21/02/2015 Sharks 29 12 Lions
12/04/2014 Lions 12 25 Sharks

The Lions are heavy favourites, with the algorithm having the Lions down to win by a handy 11 points. However, the Sharks won their previous encounter, can they swing a repeat?

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Crusaders vs Brumbies


The Crusaders put the Hurricanes to the sword in Round 7 and will be hoping to do the same against the Canberra side who are coming off a bye.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Crusaders 10 9 1 0 327 155% 90% 32.7
Brumbies 10 1 9 0 155 327% 10% 15.5
Date Home Score Score Away
28/04/2018 Brumbies 8 21 Crusaders
25/02/2017 Crusaders 17 13 Brumbies
24/04/2016 Brumbies 14 40 Crusaders
13/06/2015 Brumbies 24 37 Crusaders
03/05/2014 Crusaders 40 20 Brumbies
05/05/2013 Brumbies 23 30 Crusaders
11/03/2011 Crusaders 52 10 Brumbies
14/05/2010 Crusaders 40 22 Brumbies
21/02/2009 Brumbies 18 16 Crusaders
15/02/2008 Crusaders 34 3 Brumbies

The Brumbies have suffered some large defeats this season, losing their recent matches 36-14 against the Reds and 43-13 to the Hurricanes, both games away from home.

The algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 22 points and as you can see from above, the Canterbury side have won nine out of their last ten. Will we see this run continue?

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Blues vs Waratahs


The Blues are back and have won three games in a row! The last time the Auckland side won that many consecutive games was way back in 2012, so clearly they are doing something right.

The Waratahs will be wondering what went wrong against the Sunwolves after they became the first team to lose to the Japanese team on Australian soil.

Here are the latest results between these two outfits.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Blues 10 6 4 0 268 244 60% 26.8
Waratahs 10 4 6 0 244 268 40% 24.4
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Date Home Score Score Away
05/05/2018 Waratahs 21 24 Blues
06/05/2017 Waratahs 33 40 Blues
15/07/2016 Blues 34 28 Waratahs
28/03/2015 Waratahs 23 11 Blues
25/04/2014 Blues 21 13 Waratahs
24/03/2013 Waratahs 30 27 Blues
24/06/2011 Blues 26 13 Waratahs
16/04/2011 Blues 31 17 Waratahs
27/03/2010 Waratahs 39 32 Blues
27/03/2009 Blues 22 27 Waratahs

The algorithm has the Blues to win by three. They’ve had some fortune against the NSW side, winning the last three games, two of which were away from home. Can the Blues possibly get another and win four in a row?

Rebels vs Waratahs


Both teams won in Round 7, with the Sunwolves winning against the Waratahs the biggest shock of the weekend. However, the Rebels are at home and their supporters will be expecting a win here.

Here are the last results from these two outfits and as you can see it’s all Rebels.

Head to head

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P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Waratahs 10 8 2 0 332 217 80% 33.2
Rebels 10 2 8 0 217 332 20% 21.7
Date Home Score Score Away
6/29/2018 Rebels 26 31 Waratahs
3/18/2018 Waratahs 51 27 Rebels
5/21/2017 Waratahs 50 23 Rebels
3/24/2017 Rebels 25 32 Waratahs
4/3/2016 Waratahs 17 21 Rebels
4/25/2015 Waratahs 18 16 Rebels
2/20/2015 Rebels 28 38 Waratahs
5/23/2014 Rebels 19 41 Waratahs
3/21/2014 Waratahs 32 8 Rebels
5/24/2013 Rebels 24 22 Waratahs

The algorithm has the Rebels to continue the 100% per cent win rate and to prevail by ten points.

Bulls vs Jaguares


Last round, the Bulls scraped past the Sharks in Durban and the Jaguares lost to the Chiefs in Argentina. The Bulls are sitting second in the South African conference and will be expecting to pick up the points in this fixture, as the Jaguares have lost three on the bounce.

Head to head

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P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Bulls 5 2 3 0 116 157 40% 23.2
Jaguares 5 3 2 0 157 116 60% 31.4
Date Home Score Score Away
23/02/2019 Jaguares 27 12 Bulls
07/07/2018 Bulls 43 34 Jaguares
19/05/2018 Jaguares 54 24 Bulls
15/04/2017 Bulls 26 13 Jaguares
02/07/2016 Jaguares 29 11 Bulls

As you can see above, it’s mixed between these two sides with the home team winning each time. The Bulls are in familiar surrounds this time and the algorithm has them to win by eight.

What do you think? Looks like a close round of results. Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.