What a round. It had everything. Apart from, as usual, good predictions.
The Jaguares made an astonishing comeback away from home to beat the Bulls, the Blues got their fourth consecutive win, Israel Folau broke the all-time Super Rugby scoring record and TJ Perenara bagged his 50th try.
Here are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round of Super Rugby.
Super Rugby Round 9 predictions
Season accuracy: 31 correct from 53: 58%
Season margin error: 13.53
Teams
Predicted score
Chance of winning
Prediction
Crusaders
37
84.6%
Crusaders to win by 19
Highlanders
18
14.8%
Rebels
24
46.7%
Stormers to win by 2
Stormers
26
52.6%
Brumbies
21
41.5%
Lions to win by 1
Lions
22
57%
Sharks
23
69.2%
Sharks to win by 8
Jaguares
15
28.8%
Chiefs
35
80.4%
Chiefs to win by 13
Blues
22
17%
Bulls
46
76.9%
Bulls to win by 10
Reds
36
21.5%
Crusaders vs Highlanders
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The battle of the southerners. Whoever wins these has serious bragging rights, so it always tends to bring the best out of the players.
The Highlanders were unlucky (again) last round against the Hurricanes and will need to up their game if they want to knock over the Crusaders at home.
Unsurprisingly the Crusaders have dominated in recent years.
Head to head
P
W
L
D
F
A
Win %
Avg Pts
Crusaders
10
7
3
0
272
213
70%
27.2
Highlanders
10
3
7
0
213
272
30%
21.3
Date
Home
Score
Score
Away
06/07/2018
Crusaders
42
22
Highlanders
17/03/2018
Highlanders
25
17
Crusaders
22/07/2017
Crusaders
17
0
Highlanders
03/06/2017
Crusaders
25
22
Highlanders
04/03/2017
Highlanders
27
30
Crusaders
13/05/2016
Highlanders
34
26
Crusaders
11/04/2015
Crusaders
20
25
Highlanders
21/02/2015
Highlanders
20
26
Crusaders
12/07/2014
Crusaders
34
8
Highlanders
24/05/2014
Highlanders
30
32
Crusaders
The algorithm has the Crusaders winning comfortably at home by 19 points, but the Highlanders could bring something special in the local derby. The last time they won away against the Crusaders was in 2015.
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Rebels vs Stormers
The Rebels played well against the Sunwolves last round and are sitting comfortably on top of the Australian conference.
The Stormers struggled away from home against the Reds and are sitting at the bottom of the South African conference, but only due to point differential. A win here is vital for their finals chances.
Head to head
P
W
L
D
F
A
Win %
Avg Pts
Rebels
6
1
5
0
118
209
17%
19.7
Stormers
6
5
1
0
209
118
83%
34.8
Date
Home
Score
Score
Away
27/04/2018
Stormers
34
18
Rebels
02/07/2016
Rebels
31
57
Stormers
23/05/2015
Stormers
31
15
Rebels
17/05/2013
Rebels
30
21
Stormers
14/07/2012
Stormers
26
21
Rebels
03/06/2012
Rebels
3
40
Stormers
The algorithm has the Stormers to win by two, but it will be tricky against the Rebels at home. They always tend to perform in front of their fans.
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Chiefs vs Blues
The Blues are on a roll. They just won their fourth game in a row for the first time since 2011.
They are on the road this round against a Chiefs side who started the season badly but are beginning to pick up some wins. How will this game go?
Below is the Blues’ recent away record. Only three wins in their last ten matches away from Auckland, so they will be up against it travelling to Waikato.
Blues last ten away matches
P
W
L
D
F
A
Win %
Avg Pts
Blues
10
3
7
0
226
310
30%
22.6
Opposition
10
7
3
0
310
226
70%
31
Date
Home
Score
Score
Away
02/03/2019
Jaguares
23
19
Blues
23/02/2019
Sharks
26
7
Blues
14/07/2018
Crusades
54
17
Blues
07/07/2018
Hurricanes
42
24
Blues
05/05/2018
Waratahs
21
24
Blues
14/04/2018
Sunwolves
10
24
Blues
07/04/2018
Chiefs
21
19
Blues
17/03/2018
Stormers
37
20
Blues
10/03/2018
Lions
35
38
Blues
23/02/2018
Highlanders
41
34
Blues
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Taking the away form into account, the algorithm has the Chiefs to win by 13.
Brumbies vs Lions
The Lions haven’t been great recently, and have now lost two on the bounce.
Their last round was an especially heavy defeat, going down 5-42 to the Sharks at home. The Brumbies have been having a bit of a nightmare as well, and have lost the last two, both ending up 36-14 as the final score.
Head to head
P
W
L
D
F
A
Win %
Avg Pts
Brumbies
10
6
4
0
225
199
60%
22.5
Lions
10
4
6
0
199
225
40%
19.9
Date
Home
Score
Score
Away
19/05/2018
Lions
42
24
Brumbies
12/05/2017
Brumbies
6
13
Lions
16/05/2015
Lions
20
30
Brumbies
27/04/2012
Lions
20
34
Brumbies
14/05/2011
Brumbies
20
29
Lions
05/03/2010
Brumbies
24
13
Lions
21/03/2009
Lions
25
17
Brumbies
25/04/2008
Brumbies
28
21
Lions
31/03/2007
Lions
9
14
Brumbies
03/03/2006
Brumbies
28
7
Lions
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The algorithm has made a tough call between two sides out of form but has picked the Lions by one.
Sharks vs Jaguares
The Sharks dominated the Lions last game, winning 42-5 and with this round at home, you would expect them to win against the Jaguares.
However, the Jaguares will come into the game with confidence after beating a red-hot Bulls away from home last round. This’ll be a real clash between two in-form sides.
Head to head
P
W
L
D
F
A
Win %
Avg Pts
Sharks
6
5
1
0
128
114
83%
21.3
Jaguares
6
1
5
0
114
128
17%
19
Date
Home
Score
Score
Away
14/07/2018
Sharks
20
10
Jaguares
25/05/2018
Jaguares
29
13
Sharks
29/04/2017
Jaguares
25
33
Sharks
08/04/2017
Sharks
18
13
Jaguares
14/05/2016
Jaguares
22
25
Sharks
05/03/2016
Sharks
19
15
Jaguares
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The algorithm has the Sharks to win by eight, with their home advantage deemed to be too much for the travelling Argentinian side.
Bulls vs Reds
The Bulls are at home again and will be hurting after last round’s shock defeat to the Jaguares.
They will be keen to restore some of that confidence against a travelling Reds side.
The Reds have struggled to win away from home recently, only managing to win two away games in the last ten, against the Sunwolves and Jaguares.
Reds’ last ten away games
P
W
L
D
F
A
Win %
Avg Pts
Reds
10
2
8
0
234
349
20%
23.4
Opposition
10
8
2
0
349
234
80%
34.9
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Date
Home
Score
Score
Away
16/03/2019
Sunwolves
31
34
Reds
09/03/2019
Waratahs
28
17
Reds
22/02/2019
Highlanders
36
31
Reds
29/06/2018
Blues
39
16
Reds
18/05/2018
Hurricanes
38
34
Reds
12/05/2018
Sunwolves
63
28
Reds
14/04/2018
Waratahs
37
16
Reds
07/04/2018
Brumbies
45
21
Reds
24/03/2018
Stormers
25
19
Reds
17/03/2018
Jaguares
7
18
Reds
The algorithm has the Bulls by ten, too strong at home for a Reds’ side that is poor away from home.
What do you think? Leave a comment below and give us your thoughts.
Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.