The Roar's Super Rugby expert tips and predictions, Round 9: Big test for Les, Blues backed to best Brumbies
Fijian Drua will try to end the 7-0 streak of the table-topping Hurricanes to kick off a spicy weekend of action that has split…
What a round. It had everything. Apart from, as usual, good predictions.
The Jaguares made an astonishing comeback away from home to beat the Bulls, the Blues got their fourth consecutive win, Israel Folau broke the all-time Super Rugby scoring record and TJ Perenara bagged his 50th try.
Super Rugby Round 8 predicted vs actual | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy 31 correct from 53:58% | Season margin of error: 13.52 | |||
Weekend accuracy: 3 correct from 7: 43% | Weekend margin error: 13.57 | |||
Teams | Actual score | Predicted score | Correct | Margin of error |
Highlanders | 28 | 27 | No | 5 |
Hurricanes | 31 | 25 | ||
Lions | 5 | 35 | No | 48 |
Sharks | 42 | 24 | ||
Reds | 24 | 21 | No | 15 |
Stormers | 12 | 24 | ||
Crusaders | 36 | 45 | Yes | 0 |
Brumbies | 14 | 23 | ||
Bulls | 20 | 34 | No | 10 |
Jaguares | 22 | 26 | ||
Rebels | 42 | 32 | Yes | 17 |
Sunwolves | 15 | 22 | ||
Blues | 32 | 28 | Yes | 0 |
Waratahs | 29 | 25 |
Here are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round of Super Rugby.
Super Rugby Round 9 predictions | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 31 correct from 53: 58% | Season margin error: 13.53 | |||
Teams | Predicted score | Chance of winning | Prediction | |
Crusaders | 37 | 84.6% | Crusaders to win by 19 | |
Highlanders | 18 | 14.8% | ||
Rebels | 24 | 46.7% | Stormers to win by 2 | |
Stormers | 26 | 52.6% | ||
Brumbies | 21 | 41.5% | Lions to win by 1 | |
Lions | 22 | 57% | ||
Sharks | 23 | 69.2% | Sharks to win by 8 | |
Jaguares | 15 | 28.8% | ||
Chiefs | 35 | 80.4% | Chiefs to win by 13 | |
Blues | 22 | 17% | ||
Bulls | 46 | 76.9% | Bulls to win by 10 | |
Reds | 36 | 21.5% |
The battle of the southerners. Whoever wins these has serious bragging rights, so it always tends to bring the best out of the players.
The Highlanders were unlucky (again) last round against the Hurricanes and will need to up their game if they want to knock over the Crusaders at home.
Unsurprisingly the Crusaders have dominated in recent years.
Head to head
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 272 | 213 | 70% | 27.2 |
Highlanders | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 213 | 272 | 30% | 21.3 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
06/07/2018 | Crusaders | 42 | 22 | Highlanders |
17/03/2018 | Highlanders | 25 | 17 | Crusaders |
22/07/2017 | Crusaders | 17 | 0 | Highlanders |
03/06/2017 | Crusaders | 25 | 22 | Highlanders |
04/03/2017 | Highlanders | 27 | 30 | Crusaders |
13/05/2016 | Highlanders | 34 | 26 | Crusaders |
11/04/2015 | Crusaders | 20 | 25 | Highlanders |
21/02/2015 | Highlanders | 20 | 26 | Crusaders |
12/07/2014 | Crusaders | 34 | 8 | Highlanders |
24/05/2014 | Highlanders | 30 | 32 | Crusaders |
The algorithm has the Crusaders winning comfortably at home by 19 points, but the Highlanders could bring something special in the local derby. The last time they won away against the Crusaders was in 2015.
The Rebels played well against the Sunwolves last round and are sitting comfortably on top of the Australian conference.
The Stormers struggled away from home against the Reds and are sitting at the bottom of the South African conference, but only due to point differential. A win here is vital for their finals chances.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rebels | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 118 | 209 | 17% | 19.7 |
Stormers | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 118 | 83% | 34.8 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
27/04/2018 | Stormers | 34 | 18 | Rebels |
02/07/2016 | Rebels | 31 | 57 | Stormers |
23/05/2015 | Stormers | 31 | 15 | Rebels |
17/05/2013 | Rebels | 30 | 21 | Stormers |
14/07/2012 | Stormers | 26 | 21 | Rebels |
03/06/2012 | Rebels | 3 | 40 | Stormers |
The algorithm has the Stormers to win by two, but it will be tricky against the Rebels at home. They always tend to perform in front of their fans.
The Blues are on a roll. They just won their fourth game in a row for the first time since 2011.
They are on the road this round against a Chiefs side who started the season badly but are beginning to pick up some wins. How will this game go?
Below is the Blues’ recent away record. Only three wins in their last ten matches away from Auckland, so they will be up against it travelling to Waikato.
Blues last ten away matches
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blues | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 226 | 310 | 30% | 22.6 |
Opposition | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 310 | 226 | 70% | 31 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
02/03/2019 | Jaguares | 23 | 19 | Blues |
23/02/2019 | Sharks | 26 | 7 | Blues |
14/07/2018 | Crusades | 54 | 17 | Blues |
07/07/2018 | Hurricanes | 42 | 24 | Blues |
05/05/2018 | Waratahs | 21 | 24 | Blues |
14/04/2018 | Sunwolves | 10 | 24 | Blues |
07/04/2018 | Chiefs | 21 | 19 | Blues |
17/03/2018 | Stormers | 37 | 20 | Blues |
10/03/2018 | Lions | 35 | 38 | Blues |
23/02/2018 | Highlanders | 41 | 34 | Blues |
Taking the away form into account, the algorithm has the Chiefs to win by 13.
The Lions haven’t been great recently, and have now lost two on the bounce.
Their last round was an especially heavy defeat, going down 5-42 to the Sharks at home. The Brumbies have been having a bit of a nightmare as well, and have lost the last two, both ending up 36-14 as the final score.
Head to head
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brumbies | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 225 | 199 | 60% | 22.5 |
Lions | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 199 | 225 | 40% | 19.9 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
19/05/2018 | Lions | 42 | 24 | Brumbies |
12/05/2017 | Brumbies | 6 | 13 | Lions |
16/05/2015 | Lions | 20 | 30 | Brumbies |
27/04/2012 | Lions | 20 | 34 | Brumbies |
14/05/2011 | Brumbies | 20 | 29 | Lions |
05/03/2010 | Brumbies | 24 | 13 | Lions |
21/03/2009 | Lions | 25 | 17 | Brumbies |
25/04/2008 | Brumbies | 28 | 21 | Lions |
31/03/2007 | Lions | 9 | 14 | Brumbies |
03/03/2006 | Brumbies | 28 | 7 | Lions |
The algorithm has made a tough call between two sides out of form but has picked the Lions by one.
The Sharks dominated the Lions last game, winning 42-5 and with this round at home, you would expect them to win against the Jaguares.
However, the Jaguares will come into the game with confidence after beating a red-hot Bulls away from home last round. This’ll be a real clash between two in-form sides.
Head to head
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sharks | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 114 | 83% | 21.3 | |
Jaguares | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 114 | 128 | 17% | 19 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
14/07/2018 | Sharks | 20 | 10 | Jaguares |
25/05/2018 | Jaguares | 29 | 13 | Sharks |
29/04/2017 | Jaguares | 25 | 33 | Sharks |
08/04/2017 | Sharks | 18 | 13 | Jaguares |
14/05/2016 | Jaguares | 22 | 25 | Sharks |
05/03/2016 | Sharks | 19 | 15 | Jaguares |
The algorithm has the Sharks to win by eight, with their home advantage deemed to be too much for the travelling Argentinian side.
The Bulls are at home again and will be hurting after last round’s shock defeat to the Jaguares.
They will be keen to restore some of that confidence against a travelling Reds side.
The Reds have struggled to win away from home recently, only managing to win two away games in the last ten, against the Sunwolves and Jaguares.
Reds’ last ten away games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reds | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 234 | 349 | 20% | 23.4 |
Opposition | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 349 | 234 | 80% | 34.9 |
Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
---|---|---|---|---|
16/03/2019 | Sunwolves | 31 | 34 | Reds |
09/03/2019 | Waratahs | 28 | 17 | Reds |
22/02/2019 | Highlanders | 36 | 31 | Reds |
29/06/2018 | Blues | 39 | 16 | Reds |
18/05/2018 | Hurricanes | 38 | 34 | Reds |
12/05/2018 | Sunwolves | 63 | 28 | Reds |
14/04/2018 | Waratahs | 37 | 16 | Reds |
07/04/2018 | Brumbies | 45 | 21 | Reds |
24/03/2018 | Stormers | 25 | 19 | Reds |
17/03/2018 | Jaguares | 7 | 18 | Reds |
The algorithm has the Bulls by ten, too strong at home for a Reds’ side that is poor away from home.
What do you think? Leave a comment below and give us your thoughts.
Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.