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Super Rugby stats preview: Round 8 wrap and Round 9 preview
Rugby4Cast
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10th April, 2019
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Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
10th April, 2019
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1470 Reads

What a round. It had everything. Apart from, as usual, good predictions.

The Jaguares made an astonishing comeback away from home to beat the Bulls, the Blues got their fourth consecutive win, Israel Folau broke the all-time Super Rugby scoring record and TJ Perenara bagged his 50th try.

Round 8 debrief

Super Rugby Round 8 predicted vs actual
Season accuracy 31 correct from 53:58% Season margin of error: 13.52
Weekend accuracy: 3 correct from 7: 43% Weekend margin error: 13.57
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin of error
Highlanders 28 27 No 5
Hurricanes 31 25
Lions 5 35 No 48
Sharks 42 24
Reds 24 21 No 15
Stormers 12 24
Crusaders 36 45 Yes 0
Brumbies 14 23
Bulls 20 34 No 10
Jaguares 22 26
Rebels 42 32 Yes 17
Sunwolves 15 22
Blues 32 28 Yes 0
Waratahs 29 25

Round 9 matches and predictions

Here are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round of Super Rugby.

Super Rugby Round 9 predictions
Season accuracy: 31 correct from 53: 58% Season margin error: 13.53
Teams Predicted score Chance of winning Prediction
Crusaders 37 84.6% Crusaders to win by 19
Highlanders 18 14.8%
Rebels 24 46.7% Stormers to win by 2
Stormers 26 52.6%
Brumbies 21 41.5% Lions to win by 1
Lions 22 57%
Sharks 23 69.2% Sharks to win by 8
Jaguares 15 28.8%
Chiefs 35 80.4% Chiefs to win by 13
Blues 22 17%
Bulls 46 76.9% Bulls to win by 10
Reds 36 21.5%

Crusaders vs Highlanders

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The battle of the southerners. Whoever wins these has serious bragging rights, so it always tends to bring the best out of the players.

The Highlanders were unlucky (again) last round against the Hurricanes and will need to up their game if they want to knock over the Crusaders at home.

Unsurprisingly the Crusaders have dominated in recent years.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Crusaders 10 7 3 0 272 213 70% 27.2
Highlanders 10 3 7 0 213 272 30% 21.3
Date Home Score Score Away
06/07/2018 Crusaders 42 22 Highlanders
17/03/2018 Highlanders 25 17 Crusaders
22/07/2017 Crusaders 17 0 Highlanders
03/06/2017 Crusaders 25 22 Highlanders
04/03/2017 Highlanders 27 30 Crusaders
13/05/2016 Highlanders 34 26 Crusaders
11/04/2015 Crusaders 20 25 Highlanders
21/02/2015 Highlanders 20 26 Crusaders
12/07/2014 Crusaders 34 8 Highlanders
24/05/2014 Highlanders 30 32 Crusaders

The algorithm has the Crusaders winning comfortably at home by 19 points, but the Highlanders could bring something special in the local derby. The last time they won away against the Crusaders was in 2015.

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Rebels vs Stormers

The Rebels played well against the Sunwolves last round and are sitting comfortably on top of the Australian conference.

The Stormers struggled away from home against the Reds and are sitting at the bottom of the South African conference, but only due to point differential. A win here is vital for their finals chances.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Rebels 6 1 5 0 118 209 17% 19.7
Stormers 6 5 1 0 209 118 83% 34.8
Date Home Score Score Away
27/04/2018 Stormers 34 18 Rebels
02/07/2016 Rebels 31 57 Stormers
23/05/2015 Stormers 31 15 Rebels
17/05/2013 Rebels 30 21 Stormers
14/07/2012 Stormers 26 21 Rebels
03/06/2012 Rebels 3 40 Stormers

The algorithm has the Stormers to win by two, but it will be tricky against the Rebels at home. They always tend to perform in front of their fans.

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Chiefs vs Blues

The Blues are on a roll. They just won their fourth game in a row for the first time since 2011.

They are on the road this round against a Chiefs side who started the season badly but are beginning to pick up some wins. How will this game go?

Below is the Blues’ recent away record. Only three wins in their last ten matches away from Auckland, so they will be up against it travelling to Waikato.

Blues last ten away matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Blues 10 3 7 0 226 310 30% 22.6
Opposition 10 7 3 0 310 226 70% 31
Date Home Score Score Away
02/03/2019 Jaguares 23 19 Blues
23/02/2019 Sharks 26 7 Blues
14/07/2018 Crusades 54 17 Blues
07/07/2018 Hurricanes 42 24 Blues
05/05/2018 Waratahs 21 24 Blues
14/04/2018 Sunwolves 10 24 Blues
07/04/2018 Chiefs 21 19 Blues
17/03/2018 Stormers 37 20 Blues
10/03/2018 Lions 35 38 Blues
23/02/2018 Highlanders 41 34 Blues
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Taking the away form into account, the algorithm has the Chiefs to win by 13.

Brumbies vs Lions

The Lions haven’t been great recently, and have now lost two on the bounce.

Their last round was an especially heavy defeat, going down 5-42 to the Sharks at home. The Brumbies have been having a bit of a nightmare as well, and have lost the last two, both ending up 36-14 as the final score.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Brumbies 10 6 4 0 225 199 60% 22.5
Lions 10 4 6 0 199 225 40% 19.9
Date Home Score Score Away
19/05/2018 Lions 42 24 Brumbies
12/05/2017 Brumbies 6 13 Lions
16/05/2015 Lions 20 30 Brumbies
27/04/2012 Lions 20 34 Brumbies
14/05/2011 Brumbies 20 29 Lions
05/03/2010 Brumbies 24 13 Lions
21/03/2009 Lions 25 17 Brumbies
25/04/2008 Brumbies 28 21 Lions
31/03/2007 Lions 9 14 Brumbies
03/03/2006 Brumbies 28 7 Lions
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The algorithm has made a tough call between two sides out of form but has picked the Lions by one.

Sharks vs Jaguares

The Sharks dominated the Lions last game, winning 42-5 and with this round at home, you would expect them to win against the Jaguares.

However, the Jaguares will come into the game with confidence after beating a red-hot Bulls away from home last round. This’ll be a real clash between two in-form sides.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sharks 6 5 1 0 128 114 83% 21.3
Jaguares 6 1 5 0 114 128 17% 19
Date Home Score Score Away
14/07/2018 Sharks 20 10 Jaguares
25/05/2018 Jaguares 29 13 Sharks
29/04/2017 Jaguares 25 33 Sharks
08/04/2017 Sharks 18 13 Jaguares
14/05/2016 Jaguares 22 25 Sharks
05/03/2016 Sharks 19 15 Jaguares
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The algorithm has the Sharks to win by eight, with their home advantage deemed to be too much for the travelling Argentinian side.

Bulls vs Reds

The Bulls are at home again and will be hurting after last round’s shock defeat to the Jaguares.

They will be keen to restore some of that confidence against a travelling Reds side.

The Reds have struggled to win away from home recently, only managing to win two away games in the last ten, against the Sunwolves and Jaguares.

Reds’ last ten away games

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Reds 10 2 8 0 234 349 20% 23.4
Opposition 10 8 2 0 349 234 80% 34.9
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Date Home Score Score Away
16/03/2019 Sunwolves 31 34 Reds
09/03/2019 Waratahs 28 17 Reds
22/02/2019 Highlanders 36 31 Reds
29/06/2018 Blues 39 16 Reds
18/05/2018 Hurricanes 38 34 Reds
12/05/2018 Sunwolves 63 28 Reds
14/04/2018 Waratahs 37 16 Reds
07/04/2018 Brumbies 45 21 Reds
24/03/2018 Stormers 25 19 Reds
17/03/2018 Jaguares 7 18 Reds

The algorithm has the Bulls by ten, too strong at home for a Reds’ side that is poor away from home.

What do you think? Leave a comment below and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.

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Rugby4Cast
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Rugby4Cast aims to provide a stats-based approach to rugby previews and look closely at the histories, rankings and form heading into matches.

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