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The Roar


Sydney's abysmal home record will cost them a finals spot

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11th April, 2019

When the Demons defeated the Swans last night at the SCG to taste victory for the first time in 2019, it confirmed several theories I had brainstormed prior to the match. 

Melbourne’s form slump would end eventually, given they have an extremely talented list that made the preliminary final last year.

It wasn’t surprising that the win would be against Sydney since their win-loss record prior to the match suggested that they hadn’t exactly had been flying either.

Despite the fact that the SCG is Sydney’s home ground, they have had a notoriously poor win-loss record at the stadium in recent times.

The Swans have only won five out of their last 14 matches at the venue – not exactly an ideal statistic and one that coach John Longmire and his men should be extremely concerned with.

Sydney’s struggle to win at home proved costly last season as they were thrashed by their cross-town rivals the GWS Giants by 49 points in the elimination final.

The Swans’ brains trust needs to find out why they are continuing to dish out ordinary performances at the SCG and fix the problem as soon as possible or they’ll continue to lose matches at the venue.

Their abysmal record at home will cost them a spot in the finals this season.

John Longmire

(AAP Image/Joel Carrett)


Having two genuine ruckmen can be useful, since it means Max Gawn can have a rest.

Bringing in Braydon Preuss against the Swans was a brilliant decision that worked wonders as he kicked two goals and had 13 hit-outs, contributing to Melbourne’s domination of the hit-outs 73 to 13.

This is the Melbourne’s first win over Sydney since 2010, when the Demons thrashed the Swans 142-69 at the MCG.

It’s always a relief to beat your bogey team and Melbourne did it with style.

An interstate victory could start the fire that enables the Demon’s form to burn brightly.

This is the sort of inspiring win that can kick-start a season as Melbourne had their backs against the wall. The Dees started the season 0-3 with disappointing losses to Port Adelaide and Essendon at the MCG as well as an 80-point thrashing at the hands of the Cats in Geelong.

Even though the Demons are 1-3, they showed some promising signs in their gutsy win against the Swans.


They could sneak into the top eight at the end of the season. If they can get the four points against St Kilda at the MCG next week, they can get their season back on track.

As for Sydney, they are also 1-3, though two poor defeats at home against the Crows and Demons – as well as a disappointing loss to the Bulldogs and an unconvincing win against Carlton both at Marvel Stadium – suggests they are in trouble this season.

They’ll definitely struggle to make the top eight. To keep their faints finals hopes alive, the Swans need to beat Richmond at Marvel Stadium next week.

As a result of their slow starts, Sydney and Melbourne are in dangerous territory. The stats show that since 2010, only three sides have started 0-2 and qualified for the finals.

This feat was achieved by the Swans in 2014 and 2017 as well as Collingwood last year.

There’s a small chance that the Demons and the Swans could make the finals, but the statistics suggest that it’s highly unlikely.


Any games lost from now will be costly. If Sydney and Melbourne want to make the finals, they need everything to go right from here.

Then again, stranger things have happened.

The Swans made September after being 0-6 in 2017, so you never know what will happen.