The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

Following Football's meta scoreboard
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
18th April, 2019
1
Join the conversation
Advertisement
Join the Roar Today for your chance to win $1,000 each week

Winner drawn every Friday at 11am.
Promotion ends April 12th, 2024.

Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
18th April, 2019
1

When we use the phrase ‘Following Football’ to describe our meta scoreboard for teams and players, here’s what we mean.

We use sixteen different sources of player evaluations to track something akin to the Brownlow voting for the most valuable player for AFL season 2019 – up from 14 when we began the year.

Some are very much like Brownlow voting, selecting a 3-2-1 from each game, others pick a few more, some evaluate over half the players standing out every game.

Other sources examine the round overall and pick the best – perhaps the top 22 by position, sometimes more than that, sometimes fewer. Finally, we also use purely statistical analyses to choose the outliers atop the league that week – AFL Ratings and Supercoach are two of those examples.

We’ve shared the point total scoreboard once already this season, and we’ll do that again below. But something else we use as a quick way to compare top players, in the way the Brownlow voting officials might, is our 90 per cent – 80 per cent – 70 per cent thresholds, also nicknamed ‘Dominant’, ‘Prominent’, and ‘Notable’ performances.

When 90 per cent or more (at least 15 of 16) of our sources recognize a particular player’s game in a round, that’s what we call a dominant performance. A prominent performance rakes in recognition from 80-90 per cent (13-14 out of 16 sources), and the notable performance is noted by at least 11 sources – which is technically just under 70 per cent, but so be it.

In our experience (I keep saying “we” and “our” – there are four of us who use this system across a wide range of sports like footy), the 90-80-70 splits provide a rough parallel to the 3-2-1 voting in games.

It’s not perfect – you could have multiple 90-percenters in the same game, or none at all – but it does provide a rough idea who’s excelling in the eyes of the mass observers.

Advertisement

So without further ado, here are the top meta-scoring players for each team after four rounds, with current point totals and their high performances.

Adelaide Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Rory Sloane 61 R1 0 R2&3
Brad Crouch 60.5 0 R2 R3
Matt Crouch 27 0 0 0
Tom Lynch 21 0 0 0
Alex Keath 20 0 0 0
Notably missing: Eddie Betts (15), Rory Laird (13.5), Taylor Walker (10).
Brisbane Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Lachie Neale (2nd overall) 129.5 0 R2,3,&4 R1
Hugh McCluggage 54 0 R1 0
Charlie Cameron 48 0 R2 0
Eric Hipwood 45.5 0 R3 0
Daniel Rich 39 0 0 R2
Notably missing: Dayne Zorko (24).
Carlton Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Patrick Cripps (1st) 146 R1,3, & 4 R2 0
Sam Walsh 44.5 R4 0 0
Nic Newman 32 0 0 R1
Liam Jones 23 0 0 0
Ed Curnow 22 0 0 0
Jacob Weitering 22 0 0 0
Notably missing: Kade Simpson (7).
Collingwood Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Brodie Grundy (14th) 71.5 R4 0 0
Jordan deGoey 57 0 R2 0
Scott Pendlebury 41 R2 0 0
Adam Treloar 41 0 0 R2
Jack Crisp 37 0 R2 0
Tom Phillips 37 0 R4 0
Notably missing: Steele Sidebottom (14).
Essendon Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
A McD-Tipungwuti (7th) 88 R4 R3 0
Zach Merrett 53 R4 0 0
Dyson Heppell 40 0 0 R3
David Zaharakis 37.5 0 0 R3
Dylan Shiel 32.5 0 0 R2
Notably missing: Cale Hooker (20), Devon Smith (12).
Fremantle Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Michael Walters (17th) 66 R3 0 0
Nat Fyfe 61.5 R1 0 0
Cam McCarthy 60 R1 0 0
Luke Ryan 48 R3 0 0
Brad Hill 47.5 0 R1 R2
Notably missing: David Mundy (44, so not far behind)
Geelong Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Patrick Dangerfield (6th) 112.5 R2 R3 0
Tim Kelly (12th) 74 0 R1 R2&3
Tom Stewart (15th) 68.5 0 R2 R3
Tom Hawkins 40 0 0 R4
Luke Dahlhaus 31 0 0 0
Notably missing: Gary Ablett (27), Joel Selwood (21)
Gold Coast Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Alex Sexton 60.5 0 0 R1&2
David Swallow 48.5 0 0 R2&4
Jarrod Harbrow 41.5 R2 0 0
Jack Martin 40 0 R2&3 0
Touk Miller 37 0 R4 0
Notably missing: Pearce Hanley (4)
Greater W Sydney Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Lachie Whitfield (3rd) 124.5 R3 R2&4 R1
Jeremy Cameron (5th) 113 R3 0 R1
Stephen Coniglio (8th) 85 R1 R4 0
Tim Taranto 58.5 0 R1 R3
Jeremy Finlayson 46 R3 0 0
Notably missing: Phil Davis (8), Jacob Hopper (37), Josh Kelly (12)
Hawthorn Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
James Worpel 60 R1 0 0
Rick Henderson 53.5 0 R3 R2
Luke Breust 50.5 R3 0 0
James Sicily 48 0 R1 0
Jaegar O’Meara 45.5 0 R1 0
Notably missing: Jack Gunston (35), Chad Wingard (14).
Melbourne Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Max Gawn 54.5 0 R4 0
Clayton Oliver 49.5 R2 0 0
Nathan Jones 42 0 0 R4
Angus Brayshaw 41.5 0 0 R3
Christian Salem 31.5 0 R1 0
Notably missing: Christian Petracca (13).
North Melbourne Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Shaun Higgins (20th) 62 0 0 R3
Ben Cunnington 44 0 R2 0
Jared Polec 26.5 0 0 0
Ben Brown 25.5 0 0 0
Jasper Pittard 23.5 0 0 0
Notably missing: Todd Goldstein (22), Jack Ziebell (14.5)
Port Adelaide Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Travis Boak (9th) 82 0 R1 R2&3
Tom Rockliff (10th) 79 0 R1,2&4 0
Justin Westhoff 57 R1 0 0
Scott Lycett 54 R2 0 0
Connor Rozee 52.5 R3 0 0
Notably missing: Brad Ebert (30), Robbie Gray (18), Sam Powell-Pepper (22), Paddy Ryder (14)
Richmond Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Tom Lynch (18th) 65 0 R4 0
Shane Edwards 36 0 0 0
Dylan Grimes 33.5 0 R4 0
Toby Nankervis 31.5 0 R1 0
Trent Cotchin 31 0 0 R1
Saint Kilda Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Jade Gresham (13th) 72.5 R2 0 0
Seb Ross 59.5 0 R4 0
Jack Billings 49 0 R4 R3
Rowan Marshall 39 0 R4 0
Josh Bruce 36 0 0 0
Notably missing: Tim Membrey (13), Jack Sinclair (14), Jack Steele (28).
Sydney Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Isaac Heeney (11th) 77 R3 0 R4
Jake Lloyd 43 0 0 R1
Josh Kennedy 36.5 0 0 R2
Zak Jones 31 0 0 R3
Oliver Florent 25 0 R4 0
Notably missing: Lance Franklin (20), Luke Parker (11), Callum Sinclair (12).
West Coast Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Shannon Hurn (19th) 64.5 R4 0 0
Luke Shuey 57.5 0 0 R3
Dom Sheed 53.5 0 0 R3
Andrew Gaff 49 0 R3 R4
Jeremy McGovern 38 0 R2 0
Notably missing: Jamie Cripps (34), Jack Darling (22), Josh Kennedy (12), Elliot Yeo (16)
Western Bulldogs Current score Dominant Prominent Notable
Marcus Bontempelli (4th) 120 R4 R1&3 0
Jack Macrae (16th) 66,5 0 R2 R1
Tom Libertore 60.5 0 R2&3 0
Matt Suckling 37 0 0 0
Aaron Naughton 32 0 0 R3

It’s not a coincidence that the three men with four significant performances are also the three highest point scorers. Patrick Cripps at 146, who will make a serious challenge to be the first man on a winless team to earn the Brownlow at present pace, Lachie Neale (129.5), and Lachie Whitfield (124.5), who each have a lock on the top of the leaderboard right now.

There are five men who have three significant performances so far, and all are far up the meta-point standings as well. Marcus Bontempelli is fourth, for example, at 120 points. The other four, Travis Boak, Tom Rockliff, Rory Sloane, and Tim Kelly, all lie between 61-82 points, comfortably within the top 25.

The rest of the top ten, if the numbers don’t jump out at you, are Jeremy Cameron at 113, Patrick Dangerfield at 112.5, and then a gap back to Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti in seventh, who’s surged up to 88 points.

Stephen Coniglio’s the third Giant on the list, in eighth with 85, followed by Boak and Rockliff with 82 and 79 points, respectively.

Interestingly, Rockliff’s game never merits favour with the purely statistical measurements, and that’s always where he (and Tom Mitchell when he’s playing) lose their 90 per cent game statuses.

Advertisement

On the other hand, those sources are a bonanza for the top ruckmen, especially when they don’t have the obviously amazing games that score highly across the board.

Finding a variety of sources that give each position appropriate recognition is a constant challenge.

Here are the current team totals, the summation of all the points earned by all their players through four rounds so far. As always, there’s some parallel to the actual ladder, although it has some twists right now.

1. Giants (634)
2. Cats (555)
3. Lions (543)
4. Power (536)
5. Bulldogs (531)
6. Eagles (505)
7. Magpies (493)
8. Dockers (488)
9. Hawks (482)
10. Saints (481)
11. Bombers (466)
12. Suns (440)
13. Blues (438)
14. Tigers (431)
15. Swans (391)
16. Demons (368)
17. Kangaroos (366)
18. Crows (353)

To see Adelaide dead last is strange enough, although maybe seeing the Blues above the Tigers is weirder. What strikes me most is the glaring difference between the six teams currently sitting with three wins.

There are two distinct classes of 3-1 teams, of course: the three commonly assumed to be real contenders for the title, namely GWS, Geelong, and West Coast; and the presumed pretenders: St. Kilda, Brisbane, and Gold Coast. It isn’t surprising to see the first three generally above the second three on this list.

The Giants are currently lapping the field, as the distance between them and second-place Geelong is bigger than that between the Cats and tenth-placed St Kilda.

Advertisement

To see the Eagles not third, but way back in sixth, is almost disconcerting. They sit behind the third-slot Lions, who are not only also 3-1 but defeated them soundly a month ago to start the season.

Perhaps that alone isn’t reason enough to rethink our assumptions about the teams, but I have no trouble ranking Brisbane ahead of the other two surprise packages.

West Coast is also behind two lighter-weight teams, namely Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs.

I can’t find any other metric that does that. The Eagles are unquestionably the better team right now. Is this stat simply a product of some high-scoring individuals on those teams – Boak and Rockliff for the Power, Bontempelli for Footscray? The Eagles have many players with the wealth spread around, but maybe that lack of one or two individual focuses skews the meta-points.

Meanwhile, the Saints and Suns sit 10th and 12th, despite their three wins. (Cripps and the Blues are right behind in 13th, giving credence to the last paragraph’s question.) Is that about where they’ll end up? Frankly, that’s my bet. Somewhere in that just-out-of-reach neighbourhood, which either team would consider a successful season in 2019. (As would Carlton, for that matter.)

We also track a more useful ‘meta’ team standing ladder, namely the meta-ratings chart that normalizes eight major statistical rating systems into one combined rating that we track from week to week. Below, you’ll see the chart following Round 4, with the tracking through the first five iterations of the meta-ratings for the season.

Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Geelong Cats 72.97 72.46 79.16 80.59 77.37
4th 3rd 1st 1st 1st
GWS Giants 67.84 75.92 65.13 70.11 72.41
6th 1st 5th 3rd 2nd
West Coast Eagles 75.37 61.03 67.88 72.34 71.24
2nd 8th 3rd 2nd 3rd
Collingwood Magpies 71.46 65.77 71.66 66.83 66.29
5th 5th 2nd 4th 4th
Richmond Tigers 78.98 75.37 65.21 59.84 61.86
1st 2nd 4th 6th 5th
Essendon Bombers 62.29 50.97 48.53 53.98 58.44
9th 12th 13th 10th 6th
Hawthorn Hawks 62.30 69.01 60.14 60.84 57.89
8th 4th 7th 5th 7th
Melbourne Demons 74.85 63.87 55.15 53.43 57.05
3rd 7th 9th 11th 8th
Port Adelaide Power 57.40 64.58 60.39 57.11 55.43
11th 6th 6th 7th 9th
Adelaide Crows 62.51 52.67 58.08 55.33 53.17
7th 11th 8th 9th 10th
Brisbane Lions 42.43 53.04 54.61 56.24 51.77
13th 10th 10th 8th 11th
Sydney Swans 60.72 54.54 48.58 49.71 46.68
10th 9th 12th 12th 12th
Western Bulldogs 36.70 45.09 49.09 44.51 44.68
14th 14th 11th 13th 13th
North M Kangaroos 53.88 41.78 39.45 39.65 42.23
12th 15th 15th 15th 14th
St Kilda Saints 36.19 35.78 39.29 39.08 41.92
15th 16th 16th 16th 15th
Fremantle Dockers 29.05 46.41 41.52 40.77 41.43
16th 13th 14th 14th 16th
Gold Coast Suns 14.53 21.52 22.59 26.77 26.48
17th 17th 17th 17th 17th
Carlton Blues 12.99 15.20 19.17 18.90 19.42
18th 18th 18th 18th 18th
Advertisement

In theory, we should probably be able to project point spreads from these as Following Football does from the ELO-FF ratings, as we’ve normalized them onto the same approximate scale, but I haven’t done any testing on that yet. If someone wants to experiment with these numbers, go for it, and let me know in the comments what you discover!

1
Join the conversation

Who’s in your ultimate team?  Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars.  For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp.  Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?  Set a deposit limit.

Related Posts

close