The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies: Anzac Day Forecast

Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Expert
25th April, 2019
0
2418 Reads

Anzac Day 2019 promises to be one of the most intriguing yet as both Collingwood and Essendon see themselves as premiership contenders and know defeating the other would be a big scalp.

Both of these sides are 3-2 after five rounds which might not sound all that impressive, but only two sides in the league have recorded four wins to this point so being 3-2 puts you as thickly in the race as anyone.

Collingwood’s incredible midfield depth has seen them play a high-possession brand of football so far this year – no side in the league averages more kicks or marks than them, and they’re fourth for handballs also.

The flipside of that is that it really starves their opponents of the ball. They’re second in the comp for conceding the least disposals to an opposition team, which translates into also having the fourth-best defence.

Essendon, despite not being the ball hogs that Collingwood are, find themselves just a nose ahead of the Pies in terms of overall scoring – by the margin of 11 points from five games this year.

How do they do it? Speed, deadly speed. The Bombers have so far recorded 54 running bounces for the year, an average of more than 10 per game, and the most of any side in the league.

They lacked intencity in their opening two games of the year but when they’ve been switched on particularly in the last fortnight, their ability to harass and then hurt opposition teams is a serious weapon.

Dylan Shiel

(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

Advertisement

Teams

Both sides have made two changes for today’s match.

Essendon have loaded up on experienced talent by recalling both Devon Smith and David Zaharakis to the side after missing last week through minor injury – Darcy Parish and debutant Brayden Ham were the players to make way.

Collingwood have lost Jamie Elliott and James Aish to injury, but will regain Will Hoskin-Elliott for his first match of the year and also brought in Levi Greenwood.

The Magpies have the more experienced team and one of the most experienced in the league overall, but the Dons will close that gap a bit this week with the additions of Smith and Zaharakis.

The two are also pretty similar in age profile – these are both sides that have their eyes on the prize now, and are built to win.

Essendon Bombers
B Mark Baguley, Cale Hooker, Jordan Ridley
HB Patrick Ambrose, Michael Hurley, Adam Saad
C Mason Redman, Zach Merrett, Conor McKenna
HF Jake Stringer, Joe Daniher, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
F Matt Guelfi, Mitch Brown, David Myers
FOL Tom Bellchambers, Andrew McGrath, Dylan Shiel
I/C Orazio Fantasia, Dyson Heppell, Devon Smith, David Zaharakis

Advertisement

Collingwood Magpies
B Brayden Maynard, Jordan Roughead, Jeremy Howe
HB Jack Crisp, Darcy Moore, Tom Langdon
C Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Phillips
HF Josh Thomas, Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott
F Jaidyn Stephenson, Brody Mihocek, Jordan De Goey
FOL Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Adam Treloar
I/C Dayne Beams, Callum L. Brown, Levi Greenwood, Travis Varcoe

Two questions

Who can stop Jordan De Goey?
Collingwood’s star forward is one of the hardest players in the league to find a matchup for, compining great pace and athleticism with superior strength and size.

Tall defenders tend to be too slow to keep up with him, and speedy defenders tend not to have the muscle or height.

Who Essendon send to him and what the result is could be a determining factor in this contest. Mark Baguley might have gotten the job in years past but may not be able to keep up any more.

De Goey is averaging nearly three goals a game so far this year – find a way to keep him out of it and Essendon will be halfway to a win.

Jordan De Goey

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)

Advertisement

Will Joe Daniher fire?
Daniher was something of a talking point over the last week as Essendon first made a shock call to bring him into their 22 last round despite him not being one of their emergencies, and then were fined no less than $20,000 for doing so.

One would suspect the Bombers would still have beaten North Melbourne comfortably even without Daniher, but he showed promise with two goals and seemed to get through the match without any hint of the injury troubles that have seen him miss so much footy.

He has an immediate chance to remind us all of his potential impact on the big stage today, but is still something of a roll of dice.

Prediction

This is a really hard match to tip – both sides have very different styles of playing the game, and I can see scenarios for either where they get the win.

Collingwood’s ability to control possession and retain the ball might just be the perfect way to combat Essendon’s speed and pressure. If they can tire the Bombers out they’ll win comfortably.

At the same time, if the Pies are off their game then Essendon have what it takes to make the pay for any mistakes. They just need to take those opportunities when they come up early to build momentum and put doubt in Collingwood’s minds.

Advertisement

My rule is when in doubt, tip the more experienced side, and that’s what I’m going to do with Collingwood. But this definitely feels like one that could go either way and I’m excited to watch.

Collingwood Magpies by 18 points.

You can stream all of today’s AFL action between Essendon and Collingwood on Kayo with a 14-day free trial.

close