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Collingwood vs Port Adelaide: Friday Night Forecast

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Expert
3rd May, 2019
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For the second time this season, Collingwood will venture away from the MCG, though exactly why they’re hosting Port Adelaide at Docklands is beyond me.

Not only does it mean the Magpies playing a home game at a ground they don’t call home, it also denies the Power valuable experience at the MCG – a venue they’ll only visit twice in the home-and-away season.

Anyway, let’s not spend any more energy trying to get inside the head of the AFL – it’s confusing in there.

Both of these sides enter tonight’s game with four wins and two losses.

The Pies are coming off an important but unconvincing win over the Bombers in their now traditional Anzac Day game, while the Power went to sleep at three-quarter time of a pretty uninspiring Friday night win against the Roos.

But wins are wins. No one will care much how those four points were obtained three months from now.

For the third week in a row, the Power find themselves playing on a Friday night, with the previous two delivering wins.

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Ken Hinkley’s men will almost certainly need to be better than they were a week ago if they’re to knock over last year’s runners-up, but thankfully for Port they don’t need to look too far into the past to find a victory that will fill them with confidence.

Their Round 5 road win against West Coast was one of the most impressive performances by any team this season.

Things don’t get any easier, however. Missing from the team that beat West Coast are their best forward, Robbie Gray, and their best defender, Tom Jonas.

Robbie Gray Port Adelaide Power AFL 2015

(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

Gray should be easier to cover. The four-time All Australian hasn’t been at his best this season.

Jonas, however, is a significant out. Undersized against most key forwards, the co-captain loomed as the best option to take on the terrifying Jordan de Goey, who is currently third in the Coleman Medal race with 16 goals. But, alas, Jonas is out, and so the Power will need to make other plans.

As always, the best way to negate a dangerous forward is to limit their opportunity. That means winning the midfield battle.

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Against the powerful Collingwood midfield, that’s a tall task, but the Power are as well equipped as any.

Without the weight of the captaincy on his shoulders, Travis Boak has returned to the midfield and is playing as well as anyone in the league. Tom Rockliff is finding the footy by accident, and Ollie Wines and Sam Powell-Pepper are bullying their way to hard balls.

As a result, the Power are ranked first for both clearance differential and inside-50 differential, and third for contested possession differential.

Those Port onballers won’t intimidate Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Co.

But the most interesting onball battle will be between the big men.

Brodie Grundy is the league’s best ruckman, but Port’s two-headed ruck monster will test him as much as any ruck rival.

Brodie Grundy celebrates kicking a goal

Brodie Grundy (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

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Scott Lycett’s reputation has grown since he left the Eagles with a premiership medallion, and Paddy Ryder is only a season-and-a-bit removed from All Australian selection.

While the Power are the No.1 stoppage team in the competition, Collingwood are a ho-hum 11th for clearance differential. It’ll take a mighty game from Grundy to break even at stoppages tonight. He’s certainly capable.

Karl Amon is the only inclusion for the Power, replacing the injured Gray, while Collingwood have made a pair of changes. Travis Varcoe has been dropped for the second time this season, and giant American Mason Cox will miss with an ankle injury. Jamie Elliott returns to the side, as does Ben Reid for the first time since round 10 last year.

Elliott’s inclusion comes just a week after Will Hoskin-Elliott’s first game of the season, and as Elliott missed all of 2018, that means tonight is the first time all of Elliott, Hoskin Elliot, de Goey, reigning Rising Star winner Jaidyn Stephenson and Josh Thomas will play in the same side.

It’s an impressive collection of forwards who will be well complemented by the hard-working Brody Mihocek. Reid will likely play the pillar role usually performed by Cox – unless Nathan Buckley throws him back and pushes Roughead forward and into back-up ruck duties.

Collingwood’s goalkickers are a known quantity. For Port, things have been a bit more unpredictable.

Through six games, Brad Ebert is his side’s leading goalkicker, with ten. In the 11 seasons prior his best tally is 17 (twice) so this is quite a change.

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Sam Gray and the exciting Connor Rozee each have nine. Ryder, Robbie Gray and Justin Westhoff have each booted six, though last week was the first time Westhoff found the goals since he kicked five in Round 1.

The last time these sides met, Collingwood won easily, hammering the Power by 51 points at the MCG. That Port side bore little resemblance to the one we’ve seen in 2019.

This should be a good match, particularly if the away team can play at a high tempo.

Collingwood by 16 points.

That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?

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