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Super Rugby stats preview: Round 11 wrap and Round 12 preview
Rugby4Cast
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2nd May, 2019
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Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
2nd May, 2019
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1694 Reads

Five out of six correct! That’s more like it for the algorithm!

We never lost faith… ahem.

So, what happened? Among other things, the Highlanders hammered the Sunwolves 52-0, the Stormers got their revenge over the Bulls and the Waratahs paid for their mistakes going down to 14 men and ultimately losing to the Sharks.

Super Rugby Round 11 predicted vs actual
Season accuracy 43 correct from 71:60.6% Season margin of error: 13.45
Weekend accuracy: 5 correct from 6: 83.3% Weekend margin error: 15.00
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin of error
Sunwolves 0 23 Yes 41
Highlanders 52 34
Crusaders 36 45 Yes 10
Lions 10 29
Jaguares 20 26 Yes 1
Brumbies 15 20
Waratahs 15 33 No 15
Sharks 23 26
Hurricanes 47 33 Yes 17
Chiefs 19 22
Stormers 24 29 Yes 6
Bulls 23 22

Round 12 matches and predictions

So, here’s the algorithm’s predictions for the next round of Super Rugby. Lovely job.

Super Rugby Round 12 predictions
Season accuracy: 43 correct from 71: 60.6% Season margin error: 13.45
Teams Predicted score Chance of winning Prediction
Crusaders 45 91.1% Crusaders to win by 21
Sharks 24 7.9%
Reds 37 79.3% Reds to win by 12
Sunwolves 25 19.3%
Highlanders 29 66.8% Highlanders to win by 8
Chiefs 21 31.4%
Brumbies 25 68.5% Brumbies to win by 6
Blues 19 29.7%
Hurricanes 41 90.6% Hurricanes to win by 20
Rebels 21 8.5%
Bulls 33 60.7% Bulls to win by 5
Waratahs 28 37.4%
Jaguares 24 65.1% Jaguares to win by 7
Stormers 17 33.1%

Crusaders vs Sharks

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The Crusaders have won their 25th consecutive Super Rugby game at home after outclassing the Lions, 36-10. The Sharks are their next opponents, who won away from home against a 14-man Waratahs outfit.

We have had a look at the Sharks away form and its not for good reading really; only three wins in their last 11.

Sharks last ten away matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sharks 11 3 8 0 264 328 37% 24
Opposition 11 8 3 0 328 364 73% 29.8
Date Home Score Score Away
27/04/2019 Waratahs 15 23 Sharks
05/04/2019 Lions 5 42 Sharks
09/03/2019 Bulls 37 14 Sharks
21/07/2018 Crusaders 40 10 Sharks
07/07/2018 Stormers 27 16 Sharks
25/05/2018 Jaguares 29 13 Sharks
12/05/2018 Bulls 39 33 Sharks
31/03/2018 Blues 40 63 Sharks
23/03/2018 Rebels 46 14 Sharks
17/03/2018 Brumbies 24 17 Sharks
17/02/2018 Lions 26 19 Sharks

The algorithm has the Crusaders winning this one by 21.

If the algorithm is correct, and there can’t be too many who would disagree with this one, what can teams do to stop the powerhouse that is the Crusaders? Leave a comment below with your thoughts.

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Reds vs Sunwolves

The Reds are coming off a bye and the Sunwolves will be hurting after a 52-0 loss at home to the Highlanders. The Reds have been a mixed bag so far generally, so we took a look at their home record in particular.

Reds last ten home matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Reds 10 5 5 0 265 258 50% 26.5
Opposition 10 5 5 0 258 265 50% 25.8
Date Home Score Score Away
05/04/2019 Reds 24 12 Stormers
30/03/2019 Reds 13 32 Rebels
24/03/2019 Reds 36 14 Brumbies
02/03/2019 Reds 12 22 Crusaders
13/07/2018 Reds 48 27 Sunwolves
06/07/2018 Reds 37 23 Rebels
02/06/2018 Reds 41 52 Waratahs
26/05/2018 Reds 15 18 Highlanders
28/04/2018 Reds 27 22 Lions
21/04/2018 Reds 12 36 Chiefs

Sunwolves last ten away matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sunwolves 10 1 9 0 225 407 10% 22.5
Opposition 10 9 1 0 407 225 90% 40.7
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Date Home Score Score Away
06/04/2019 Rebels 42 15 Sunwolves
09/03/2019 Blues 28 20 Sunwolves
02/03/2019 Chiefs 15 39 Sunwolves
13/07/2019 Reds 48 27 Sunwolves
07/07/2018 Waratahs 77 25 Sunwolves
03/06/2018 Brumbies 41 31 Sunwolves
25/05/2018 Rebels 40 13 Sunwolves
27/04/2018 Hurricanes 43 15 Sunwolves
21/04/2018 Crusaders 33 11 Sunwolves
17/03/2018 Lions 40 38 Sunwolves

As you can see, it’s fifty-fifty with nearly identical points scored. However, the Sunwolves are worse off with just one win to their name away from home, against the Chiefs a few weeks back.

The algorithm has the Reds winning by 12

Hurricanes vs Rebels

The Hurricanes were impressive enough against the struggling Chiefs, winning 47-19. The Rebels, who are coming off a bye, will be fresh but might be a little cautious after losing their last two matches. However, they still remain top of the Australian conference.

We have had a look at previous results between these two sides.

Head to head

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P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Hurricanes 7 6 1 0 311 131 86% 44.4
Rebels 7 1 6 0 131 311 15% 18.7
Date Home Score Score Away
30/03/2018 Rebels 19 50 Hurricanes
04/03/2017 Hurricanes 71 6 Rebels
15/04/2016 Rebels 13 38 Hurricanes
27/03/2015 Hurricanes 36 12 Rebels
09/05/2014 Rebels 15 25 Hurricanes
26/05/2012 Hurricanes 66 24 Rebels
25/03/2011 Rebels 42 25 Hurricanes

Some big wins there with the last game in Wellington going to the Canes 71-6. A comprehensive win indeed. The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 20 this time round. What do you think? Too high? Too low? Just right.

Highlanders vs Chiefs

The Highlanders showed the Sunwolves who was boss last weekend winning 52-0. The Chiefs, on the other hand, lost to the Canes away from home and are on the road again for this game.

The Chiefs also have the worst defence in the Super Rugby. After ten matches, they have conceded 340 points and 43 tries.

We have had a look at the overall results between these two teams with the Chiefs leading a tight head to head 18 to 14. We also looked at how the Highlanders have performed recently at home against the Chiefs, and it’s pretty even stuff.

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Highlanders vs Chiefs at home

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Highlanders 7 4 3 0 177 155 57% 25.3
Chiefs 7 3 4 0 155 177 43% 22.1
Date Home Score Score Away
24/02/2017 Highlanders 15 24 Chiefs
16/07/2016 Highlanders 25 15 Chiefs
20/06/2015 Highlanders 24 14 Chiefs
30/05/2015 Highlanders 36 9 Chiefs
27/06/2014 Highlanders 29 25 Chiefs
22/02/2013 Highlanders 27 41 Chiefs
29/06/2012 Highlanders 21 27 Chiefs

The algorithm however, has seen through all this waffle, and has the Highlanders winning this one by 8 points. Easy when you know how I suppose.

Brumbies vs Blues

The Blues are back in action and playing away from home which they have struggled with so far this season. Interestingly however, against the Brumbies, their away form hasn’t been all that bad so this game could go either way.

Brumbies vs Blues at home

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P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Brumbies 10 5 5 0 275 220 50% 27.5
Blues 10 5 5 0 220 275 50% 22
Date Home Score Score Away
30/04/2017 Brumbies 12 18 Blues
04/04/2014 Brumbies 26 9 Blues
14/07/2012 Brumbies 16 30 Blues
09/05/2009 Brumbies 37 15 Blues
10/02/2007 Brumbies 15 17 Blues
21/02/2004 Brumbies 44 27 Blues
10/05/2002 Brumbies 46 25 Blues
25/02/2000 Brumbies 15 18 Blues
02/05/1998 Brumbies 24 27 Blues
15/03/1996 Brumbies 40 34 Blues

The Brumbies lost to the Jaguares in a close encounter, missing out by five points. The Canberra side are sitting on four wins with six losses and are currently third in the Australian conference. Will they bounce back in front of their home crowd?

The algorithm has the Brumbies winning by six.

Bulls vs Waratahs

Both teams lost last weekend, with the Bulls missing out by a single point and the Waratahs losing 23-15 to the Sharks.

We have had a look at the last ten results between these two sides.

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Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Bulls 10 8 2 0 242 203 80% 24.2
Waratahs 10 2 8 0 203 242 20% 20.3
Date Home Score Score Away
14/05/2016 Waratahs 31 8 Bulls
19/04/2014 Waratahs 19 12 Bulls
27/04/2013 Bulls 30 19 Waratahs
11/05/2012 Waratahs 24 27 Bulls
03/06/2011 Bulls 23 17 Waratahs
27/02/2010 Bulls 48 38 Waratahs
11/04/2009 Waratahs 6 20 Bulls
03/05/2008 Bulls 16 13 Waratahs
10/03/2007 Waratahs 19 32 Bulls
25/02/2006 Bulls 26 17 Waratahs

It’s not looking good for the men from New South Wales, only winning two out of ten games. But not all hope is lost, with those two wins being the last two games played against these teams – albeit in Sydney, not Pretoria.

The algorithm has the Bulls winning by five, so it’s still a relatively tight affair.

Jaguares vs Stormers

The Jaguares have been playing well and picked up another vital win last round. They are at home again against the Stormers and hoping it won’t be a repeat of what happened last time, when they lost 35-8 away from home.

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The overall results between these teams are in favour of the Stormers, who have won four out of five games, but the Jaguares have an excellent home record and won’t have anything to fear from their South African opponents.

Jaguares last ten home matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Jaguares 10 7 3 0 284 227 70% 28.4
Opposition 10 3 7 0 227 284 30% 22.7
Date Home Score Score Away
27/04/2019 Jaguares 20 15 Brumbies
30/03/2019 Jaguares 27 30 Chiefs
02/03/2019 Jaguares 23 19 Blues
23/02/2019 Jaguares 27 12 Bulls
16/02/2018 Jaguares 16 25 Lions
30/06/2018 Jaguares 25 14 Stormers
25/05/2018 Jaguares 29 13 Sharks
19/05/2018 Jaguares 54 24 Bulls
07/04/2018 Jaguares 14 40 Crusaders
24/03/2018 Jaguares 49 35 Lions

The algorithm has taken into account this home form, and has the Jaguares winning by seven.

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.

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Rugby4Cast
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Rugby4Cast aims to provide a stats-based approach to rugby previews and look closely at the histories, rankings and form heading into matches.

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