Another round of football is upon us, and our ELO-Following Football ranking system is coming off a near-perfect Round 7 to pick through this weekend’s action.
Sydney
The Swanfall is no illusion.
Sydney’s ELO-Following Football rating has fallen in five of their six defeats, so they weren’t even getting Carlton-like honourable losses along the way. On our expectation chart they haven’t had an above-expected performance all season.
This is not 2017; these birds are cooked. It appears that the greatest forward of his generation will finish his career in irrelevance with a floundering also-ran.
Essendon
Unlike last year, they flipped the switch after Game 2 rather than Game 8. That should mean they stay competitive all season and defeat teams like the Swans.
Predictions
Essendon plus the points
Lance Franklin of the Swans. (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Western Bulldogs
We’ve all known the problem was a lack of tall forwards. You knew it. I knew it. Luke Beveridge knew it. The Tom Boyd fan club definitely knew it. So if Aaron Naughton can be the superhero he appeared to be on Saturday, the Doggies have a chance at relevance. When there was someone to kick to, the Marcus Bontempelli was more than able to be his brilliant, miraculous self and provide loaves and fishes from scraps in the middle.
Brisbane
Here’s the sign of a maturing team. After two horrendous losses – so bad in fact that they cancelled out the gains of the five victories, leaving the Lions with about the same ELO score they started the year with – the Brisbane regrouped and defeated two opponents they should have defeated with minimal fuss and difficulty. If you can keep one loss from becoming two or two from becoming four, you’re going to do well in any league.
Predictions
Brisbane to win outright. They’ve got a good enough defensive team to control Naughton, and the Bulldogs don’t have much else they can’t handle.
Brisbane Lions players Lincoln McCarthy and Charles Cameron (Jono Searle/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Carlton
It’s a cliche, but the Blues are this close to being decent. They look so much like 2018 Brisbane in performance it’s deja vu-inducing. Until Sunday they hadn’t played a bad game (by their standards) yet.
Collingwood
Unfortunately the Magpies haven’t had a bad game, period. Their loss to Geelong in R1 looks less and less embarrassing by the week, and if the game against West Coast was their low point, then they’re just fine. The sophomore jinx of a breakout team is often real, but Collingwood is the only team besides Geelong sitting above 70 in the ELO-FF ratings this season, and they’re the most viable threat to the Cats’ surprise dominance in 2019.
Predictions
I don’t have any doubt the Pies will win this. But 46 points? That seems like a lot. I mean, they might cover that, but I’d hate to count on it. Get a lower number, like two or three goals, and take the smaller payout on Collingwood by that much or more.
Collingwood’s Jordan de Goey. (Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)
Gold Coast
Another pleasant surprise week for the Suns – a competitive appearance at Optus against the reigning premiers. They did much better than the Giants did over there, that’s for sure. This, however, is the kind of game that this team should be pointing towards. I can almost hear coach Stuart Dew telling his troops behind closed doors, “Nice job against the Eagles, but we can beat the Demons at home!”. And they can.
Melbourne
I don’t get what happened to the Demons this season. I didn’t think Hogan was that critical to their success, but the scoring issues are real. Last week’s victory wasn’t even a blip – our ELO system predicted a win over a fragile Hawks team, but I didn’t have the guts to agree with it. And while it’s predicting a Melbourne win here too, ELO-FF thinks they should be 5-2 right now, not 2-5.
Predictions
Like Sydney, it’s hard to pick Melbourne to win any game. But Gold Coast? Sure, I’ll pick Gold Coast (holding my breath, crossing my fingers). Hey, I went oh-fer-nine in week five. I’ve got nothing to lose now.
Braydon Preuss of the Demons. (Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
St Kilda
Like Port, the Saints have established that they’re (a) a good team, defeating Hawthorn and Essendon, and (b) not a great team, losing to GWS and Adelaide. That makes this game so interesting because nobody’s sure if West Coast is still a great team or merely a good team with a premiership to its name.
West Coast
A narrower-than-expected win over Gold Coast followed two embarrassing losses to Geelong and Port Adelaide followed a too-close victory over stadium-mate Fremantle. At this stage they’re 2-5 overall. And all of that’s with both Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling up front, which was once their sign of invincibility. As of May 2019, the Eagles are not a championship team. Since the Saints aren’t either, that makes this a fascinating game.
Predictions
Hey, since I’m shooting for the fences right now, I’m taking the Saints to win. They’ve done well by me all season, so why can’t they beat a fragile Eagles team in the narrow confines indoors?
West Coast’s Shannon Hurn’s. (Will Russell/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Port Adelaide
Ignoring the West Coast win, Port’s season looks like this: a 39-point loss to Collingwood following a narrow win over the 1-5 Kangaroos, back to a seven-point upset loss to a depleted Tiger team and a 17-point loss to a Brisbane team that simply overran them, and before that it was a narrow win over bottom-feeder Carlton. Oh, and a win over a hapless Demon team to start the year. How impressive is that really?
Adelaide
Three convincing wins over Fremantle, St Kilda, and Gold Coast – maybe not the most formidable ‘murderers row’ of opponents imaginable, but it’s better than most of Port’s CV.
Predictions
I trust what I’m seeing at Football Park more than Alberton Oval, and a point more than a goal isn’t enough to discourage me from taking the Crows plus the spread, although predicting cross-town rivalries to have wide point spreads is a fool’s game. To be safe, just take Adelaide to win.
North Melbourne
Their victory Sunday said much more about Carlton being incompetent that day than the Kangaroos being world-beaters.
Geelong
Meanwhile the Cats have been world-beaters in 2019. Gary Ablett’s found the elixir of youth in the front 50, Patrick Dangerfield’s raised his acolytes to new heights around him and the backline has evoked comparisons to the Miami Dolphins ‘no-name defence’ of NFL yesteryear. They’re the first team this season to surpass 80 on the ELO-Following Football rating system – only Collingwood is currently above 70.
Predictions
The easiest call of the weekend. Geelong by a zillion or so.
Gary Ablett of the Cats. (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Hawthorn
Anyone dare to make a guess about this team? I will: they’re just not very good. Except for their upset over an Adelaide team that hadn’t put themselves together yet, the Hawks’ ELO rating has gone down every single week, win or lose. They’re 1-6 against the spread. Whatever expectations have been, they have failed to live up to them. So hosting the 5-2 Giants should worry them greatly.
GWS
Yeah, they’ve suffered two bad losses, coincidentally to the two West Australian clubs, but they’re the only team to beat Geelong. Of their other four wins, the smallest was 41 points at Sydney. Are they consistent enough to win the title? Not at the moment. But they should handle Hawthorn.
Predictions
Giants by more than 14. Probably by about double that.
Stephen Coniglio (right) and Josh Kelly of the Giants. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Fremantle
Their performances have been all over the board – 141 points against North and then averaging 62 in the three games after that. A great win over the Giants on the road in R5 followed by a too-close win over a struggling Dogs team the next week and a weak performance Sunday against Adelaide.
Richmond
The Tigers, by our estimation, have had four pretty good games (R1, 4, 5, and 6), and three pretty poor ones against the Pies, Giants and Dogs. Which one are they due for in Round 8?
Predictions
The Tigers play well more often than the Dockers. Richmond by a goal or more.
The professional odds-makers: Seven right last week; 37 out of 63 overall.
ELO-Following Football: Eight wins last week; 39 out of 63 overall.
Percentage/home field system: Only got five right in R7; currently at 34.
The Buffalo: Six correct, 28 overall.
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