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Tipping has been an absolute nightmare this season, so let my ‘expertise’ show you the way.
Sydney vs Essendon
Usually a game like this would be a nice break from the rubbish Carlton games that have flooded our screens on a Friday night. Except Carlton are pretending to be an AFL side this year and have therefore lost all their Friday nighters to Sydney, who are looking like they have never seen a football before.
I’m not really sure what happened to Sydney. Many pundits are putting it down to the fact that they have been up for so long that they are due a poor season, but in 2019, they look particularly terrible.
Maybe giving all their good players away for nothing wasn’t such a good idea – about as bad as back-loading a $10 million contract so that your power forward is paid more after his prime.
Essendon, on the other hand, have exceeded my pretty meagre expectations of them thanks to their A-grade midfield.
Essendon will win this pretty comfortably by 18 points.
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane
Elon Musk has done it, and this game will be taking place on the red planet. I’m clearly joking, it’s at Mars Stadium in Ballarat.
But, like Mars, it’s isolated and we’re yet to find any form of intelligent life there, so the name is fitting.
Anyway, the game itself could be interesting. Brisbane are playing the best footy they’ve played in a decade, and the Dogs are still suffering from the worst premiership hangover in living memory.
Still, the Lions aren’t unbeatable, and the Bulldogs are capable of playing some good footy.
Aaron Naughton is fresh off his automatic inclusion into the AFL Hall of Fame after kicking five goals against a depleted Richmond back line.
Don’t get me wrong, Naughton will be a great player, but I haven’t seen an over-reaction from the media like that since an injured player decided to have a quiet pint.
Logic says to tip Brisbane. They’re in form, and the better side, and also haven’t lost to Carlton.
But don’t say I didn’t warn you when the Dogs end up winning. Brisbane by five.
Carlton vs Collingwood
Collingwood must be exhausted from all that travelling they did to Marvel Stadium last week, so you might forgive them a slow start.
Why they would make Collingwood – who have more members than seats at Marvel – play at the Docklands is beyond me.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Carlton have been playing pretty well this year. Much better than their one win suggests, and the players will be buoyed by the confidence of Patrick Cripps signing on and saying he wants to hang around there. He’s the type of player you can really build a side around. So well done, Carlton.
As much as the Blues are playing well – and as much as I love to see Collingwood lose – I just can’t see where Carlton can kick a winning score.
Collingwood by 26.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne
The Suns are doing pretty well this season. They’re more organised and took it to the Eagles last week.
They almost look like they actually want to be out there, which makes a nice change.
It seems as though every time a high-profile recruit walks out on them, the rest of the team just gets a little bit better. Or maybe it’s just that Stuart Dew is a competent coach.
Melbourne, on the other hand, have had a poor season by the standards they set last year. They’re missing Jesse Hogan a lot more than they’d admit, and apparently are more concerned with the drinking habits of their players more than their game plan.
While their forward line got up and left, their back line forgot how to defend – or maybe they didn’t defend that well last year, and we just didn’t notice because they were able to kick a decent score.
Melbourne did find a bit of form with a win over Hawthorn last week, but the jury’s still out on whether they’re any good.
The Suns will win this at home in a tight one. Gold Coast by seven points.
St Kilda vs West Coast
The Saints came down from their March premiership and have got a fair old whack with the reality stick over the last couple of weeks.
It’s amazing how the fixture sorts itself out when the bottom sides start playing the better teams. They are usually found out eventually.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The Eagles have decided that only playing half a game of football is good enough this year.
They’ll blame the surface, or the shorter pre-season, or whatever else they can to deflect from the fact that maybe they just aren’t that good in 2019.
Or maybe they are, and they’re just having a bit of a form slump like many teams do. If you were an Eagles fan, you’d happily be having that slump now rather than September, which is when they’ll still feature prominently.
West Coast to win this in a pretty routine match. Eagles by 29 points.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
If you were to ask South Australians what this game meant to them, many would say it’s more important than any other game.
I’m not sure why a match involving two teams who happen to train near each other should hold any type of significance, but that’s footy, and these rivalries are what makes it great.
If you were to ask anyone else what they thought of this game and it sounds a lot less like a Showdown, and much more like the battle of who could care less.
Port Adelaide will be full of excitement and confidence. Their win at Optus Stadium over West Coast is still providing them with some sort of belief, but their follow-up win against the Roos and decent thumping by Collingwood gives us a much more accurate portrayal of where they are at.
Adelaide, meanwhile, have had a slow start to their season, but they are building towards something pretty good.
They hammered the Suns, got over the Saints and beat Freo in a remarkable game.
As much as Fremantle’s back line were lauded, not enough credit went to Adelaide’s whole-ground defence, which made scoring virtually impossible for the Dockers.
Because of that, Port won’t be able to kick a winning score, nor have the same defensive ability as the Dockers to stop the Crows at the other end.
Adelaide to win in a tight one. Crows by 15 points.
North Melbourne vs Geelong
North almost got a small reprieve this week with the Cats losing Gary Ablett, but the AFL later decided it’s who you are – not what you do – that constitutes a suspension.
There’s not much to say about this game. The Cats are the premiership favourites, and clearly the best team in the comp.
The Roos look like they’d be a comfortable middle-tier team in the VFL, but they did just thump Carlton, which gives no one any more confidence over their ability but does allow them to keep their coach for a few more weeks.
This will be a bit of a light training drill for the Cats, who’ll win by 45 points.
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney
I’m not sold on Hawthorn at all this season.
On paper, they have the players and the coach to go deep into September. A genuine destination club that have had no problem recruiting players for well below their worth, which seems to defeat the purpose of the salary cap, but that’s another issue.
However, in 2019, they haven’t hit their strides. They have beaten the teams they were expected to beat but haven’t been convincing in any game they’ve played.
They seem a little bit slower and less composed than the great Hawthorn dynasty of the early 2010s, but mostly because of coach Alastair Clarkson, it would be stupid to ever write them off completely.
(Image: AAP Image/Joe Castro)
GWS seem to be going about their business as well as you could expect them to. They may be running out of No.1 picks on their list, but they still have plenty of talent to put a decent side together.
With Jeremy Cameron in career-best form and their midfield firing, they haven’t struggled much all year – except against the West Australian teams, one of whom was in the type of form you’d expect the reigning premiers to be in, and the other decided to actually rock up and be competitive for a change, mostly taking the Giants by surprise.
The Hawks need to win this in order to keep their season alive. GWS are comfortable with where they’re at, but when you’re hanging on to a potential top eight spot by a thread – as Hawthorn are – it is more important not to lose these games.
Having said that, the Giants won’t have too many issues kicking a winning score and will win by 21 points.
Fremantle vs Richmond
This is a game Fremantle should win. It’s at their home ground, their midfield is firing, their back line is the best in the comp and their forward line actually wants to kick a score this year… except last weekend.
But as much as I enjoyed that game and want more like it (yes I’m weird), it wasn’t typical of Freo’s forward movements. Look to what they have done before that, against GWS, the Roos, and if you remove the inaccuracy, the Eagles.
Richmond already look exhausted this season. They are trying hard but are running out of troops.
Their midfield is still elite but Tom Lynch up forward hasn’t been able to cover the loss of Jack Riewoldt, and no Alex Rance down back has left a pretty gaping hole, which the greatest forward ever to play the game Naughton exploited last week.
On paper, Fremantle should win this, but you can never trust the Dockers, especially in games they should win.
Freo with the home-ground advantage will win a scrappy affair by seven points.
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Old mate summing it up better than anyone possibly could!
Not Jake Kelly's finest moment!
