The stuttering Swans run into an Essendon outfit desperate to stay in touch of the top eight on Friday night.
Sydney’s season is already in tatters with finals out of reach and almost all of their veterans missing through injury.
While the Swans managed to claw their way out of a similar situation in 2017, losing the first six matches of that campaign, the 2019 edition looks far less capable.
While coach John Longmire has hinted at rebuilding, he was quick to praise the impressive Brisbane Lions outfit last week.
The difference between the two teams was stark. It was a reminder of what can happen when you’re at the top for so long, and continually buck the AFL’s cyclical trend.
There were warning signs in 2018 after the bye, with losses to Richmond, Essendon, Geelong and the Gold Coast Suns foreshadowing their current predicament.
Thrilling wins against North Melbourne, Collingwood, Melbourne and the GWS Giants gave the Swans hope, before the Giants well and truly realigned expectations.
With nothing more than pride and an improved ladder position to play for, the Swans will be out to prove a point: that there’s still life in their season.
Essendon haven’t had it all their way either this year, failing to show up early in the season.
Impressive wins against Melbourne, Brisbane and North Melbourne were undone by consecutive poor performances, that leaves their season resting on a knife’s edge.
Essendon have to win on Friday night if they’re serious about playing finals.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti looms as the danger man for the Bombers, with 13 goals already this season including 7 against Brisbane, while enigmatic spearhead Jake Stringer is set to torture the Swans’ beleaguered defence.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Tom Bellchambers has proven his doubters wrong this year, racking up plenty of ball and being rated elite for hit-outs to advantage (37.6 per cent).
Sydney on the other hand haven’t had consistent performances from game to game, let alone quarter to quarter.
Harry Cunningham – Sydney’s most consistent player this season – was the latest man to be struck down by injury, ruled out for eight weeks with an adductor strain.
Superstar forward Lance Franklin is in doubt for Friday night, facing a race against the clock to prove his fitness, while Tom Papley faces the same dilemma.
Scoring has been a huge issue for the Swans this season, ranked 15th for points conceded and 14th for points scored.
They’re yet to pass 100 points, and haven’t since Round 17 last year. Their highest score this year – 93 points – came against Carlton in Round 3.
The SCG no longer holds the fear factor that it once did, and the Swans have seemingly forgotten how to play it.
They’ve lost five games in a row there – as well as seven of the last eight – in their worst run since 1994, conceding an average of 103 points per game this season, losing by an average of 30 points.
The only thing that’s in their favour is their recent history against Essendon at the venue, winning the last six since 2010 and claiming ten of the last 12.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
These are the key match-ups.
Callum Mills vs Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is as exciting to watch as Cyril Rioli was in his formative years. His seven goals against Brisbane in Round 4 were as good as any you’ll ever see.
A player with unique athletic abilities, he will push Callum Mills to the absolute limit.
Callum Sinclair vs Tom Bellchambers
Callum Sinclair started the season in great form, but has found the last four weeks some of the toughest of his career.
Belted in hit-outs by Max Gawn, registering just nine in Round 4, before Shane Mumford, Stefan Martin and Oscar McInerney took their turn crashing into him.
Tom Bellchambers, on the other hand, has wound back the clock, finding form and providing enough impact at the contest to be considered an extra midfielder.
Dane Rampe vs Jake Stringer
Jake Stringer is as capable a match-winner as there is in the competition, booting 14 goals from 27 shots, and almost inspiring a woeful Essendon to victory in Round 6 against Collingwood.
Dane Rampe has been Sydney’s best defender of the last three years, and will need to be at his best to stop the athletic and powerful forward.
Six key points
Sydney holds a strong record against Essendon at the SCG, winning the last six encounters.
2. The Swans are ranked 18th in the league for contested possession differential (-17.3 per game), 18th for inside-50 differential (-13.4 per game), and 16th for total contested possessions (971).
3. Scoring has been an issue for the Swans at the SCG this year, averaging 73 points per game while conceding 103 – a whopping 30-point differential.
4. Whichever team capitalises on turnovers will give themselves every chance of the win, with Essendon ranked 12th in the league for turnovers (73.4 per game), while the Swans are ranked 15th (74.3).
5. Despite being smashed in contested possessions (-42) and inside-50s (-37) in Round 7, the Swans still managed 42 clearances – five more than Essendon.
6. Joe Daniher may prove to be the difference between the sides, kicking seven goals in his three games after returning from a long stint on the sidelines.
It’s a big week for…
He’s just one cog in a struggling forward line that’s barely been able to score, but it’s time Sam Reid stood up and lead the line in Lance Franklin’s absence. With six goals from seven games this season, Sam Reid needs to perform.
Prediction
Essendon Bombers by 41 points.
Michael
Guest
How can you assert finals are 'out of reach' when the Swans are 3 wins from 5th? You're entitled to your view on the likelihood but you need your head checked if you believe the season is mathematically over. Also, going to be tricky for Daniher to prove the difference between the sides from his seat in the members pavilion. What a lazy article.