Another good round for the algorithm. Aside from the draws, because, you know, who predicts draws? Madness.
So, what happened?
The biggest surprise was certainly the Crusaders and Sharks draw, which is the first time the Crusaders haven’t won at home (aside from the British and Irish Lions) since 2016 when they lost to the Hurricanes.
| Super Rugby Round 12 predicted vs actual | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season accuracy 48 correct from 78 :61.5% | Season margin of error: 12.88 | |||
| Weekend accuracy: 5 correct from 7: 71.4% | Weekend margin error: 7.14 | |||
| Teams | Actual score | Predicted score | Correct | Margin of error |
| Crusaders | 21 | 45 | No | 21 |
| Sharks | 21 | 24 | ||
| Reds | 32 | 37 | Yes | 6 |
| Sunwolves | 26 | 25 | ||
| Hurricanes | 29 | 41 | Yes | 10 |
| Rebels | 19 | 21 | ||
| Highlanders | 31 | 29 | No | 8 |
| Chiefs | 31 | 21 | ||
| Brumbies | 26 | 25 | Yes | 1 |
| Blues | 21 | 19 | ||
| Bulls | 28 | 23 | Yes | 2 |
| Waratahs | 21 | 28 | ||
| Jaguares | 30 | 24 | Yes | 2 |
| Stormers | 25 | 17 | ||
So, here are the predictions of the algorithm for the next round of Super Rugby.
| Super Rugby Round 13 predictions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season accuracy: 48 correct from 78: 61.5% | Season margin error: 12.88 | |||
| Teams | Predicted score | Chance of winning | Prediction | |
| Blues | 23 | 34.8% | Hurricanes to win by 5 | |
| Hurricanes | 28 | 63.1% | ||
| Rebels | 26 | 68.5% | Rebels to win by 8 | |
| Reds | 18 | 29.6% | ||
| Bulls | 29 | 23.4% | Crusaders to win by 11 | |
| Crusaders | 40 | 74.7% | ||
| Lions | 43 | 72.2% | Lions to win by 10 | |
| Waratahs | 33 | 25.9% | ||
| Chiefs | 30 | 73% | Chiefs to win by 11 | |
| Sharks | 19 | 25.1% | ||
| Highlanders | 39 | 76.7% | Highlanders to win by 11 | |
| Jaguares | 28 | 21.5% | ||
| Brumbies | 45 | 88.1% | Brumbies to win by 17 | |
| Stormers | 28 | 10.5% | ||
This could be some match-up. The Blues have won four games at home and, although they lost against the Brumbies, they would have taken some confidence in their style of play this year under new management.
The Hurricanes play expansive rugby that we know and love, but will be looking at their defence closely after letting the Rebels come back after leading 26-0 at half time.
We have had a look at the previous results between these two teams played in the Blues backyard.
Last five matches in Auckland
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 100 | 140 | 20% | 20.0 |
| Hurricanes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 140 | 100 | 80% | 28.0 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Home | Away | ||
| 5/11/2018 | Blues | 15 | 36 | Hurricanes |
| 4/15/2017 | Blues | 24 | 28 | Hurricanes |
| 3/11/2016 | Blues | 19 | 23 | Hurricanes |
| 5/23/2015 | Blues | 5 | 29 | Hurricanes |
| 5/31/2014 | Blues | 37 | 24 | Hurricanes |
Overall, it’s eight wins apiece, but interestingly, the last four games have gone to the ‘Canes, with the last home win for the Blues against the Hurricanes occurring in 2014.
Will we see an upset? The algorithm has Hurricanes to win by five.
The Reds had a ding dong battle last week against the Sunwolves, but eventually came through 32-26. They will need to bring something else to the table when travelling to Melbourne.
We have had a look at the previous ten results between these two teams with the Rebels leading the head-to-head slightly.
Overall record
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebels | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 282 | 273 | 60% | 28.2 |
| Reds | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 273 | 282 | 40% | 27.3 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/30/2019 | Reds | 13 | 32 | Rebels |
| 7/6/2018 | Reds | 37 | 23 | Rebels |
| 2/23/2018 | Rebels | 45 | 19 | Reds |
| 5/13/2017 | Rebels | 24 | 29 | Reds |
| 7/15/2016 | Reds | 28 | 31 | Rebels |
| 3/12/2016 | Rebels | 25 | 23 | Reds |
| 5/15/2015 | Reds | 46 | 29 | Rebels |
| 4/3/2015 | Rebels | 23 | 15 | Reds |
| 6/27/2014 | Rebels | 20 | 36 | Reds |
| 5/17/2014 | Reds | 27 | 30 | Rebels |
The algorithm has the Rebels to win by eight.
The Bulls won last weekend at home against the Waratahs, again. It has now been 6,267 days (as of May 7, 2019) since the Waratahs won in Pretoria, back in 2002. Quite a streak for the Bulls. The Crusaders will be looking to bounce back after last week’s shock draw against the Sharks.
We have had a look at the last ten results between the Bulls and Crusaders.
Overall record
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 248 | 322 | 50% | 24.8 |
| Crusaders | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 322 | 248 | 50% | 32.2 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Home | Away | ||
| 3/23/2018 | Crusaders | 33 | 14 | Bulls |
| 5/6/2017 | Bulls | 24 | 62 | Crusaders |
| 3/28/2015 | Bulls | 31 | 19 | Crusaders |
| 3/16/2013 | Crusaders | 41 | 19 | Bulls |
| 7/21/2012 | Crusaders | 28 | 13 | Bulls |
| 4/7/2012 | Bulls | 32 | 30 | Crusaders |
| 4/9/2011 | Crusaders | 27 | 0 | Bulls |
| 5/22/2010 | Bulls | 39 | 24 | Crusaders |
| 5/7/2010 | Bulls | 40 | 35 | Crusaders |
| 5/23/2009 | Bulls | 36 | 23 | Crusaders |
Five apiece, but nine out of the last 10 have gone to the home side, the only exception being the last game in Pretoria.
The algorithm has Crusaders to win by 11 however, will it be this heavy?
The Highlanders had a contender for the match of the season last round against the Chiefs and are up against a winning Jaguares team who took the Stormers last round.
These two teams have only played each other once in Super Rugby history which went the way of the Highlanders.
Overall record
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 0% | 8.0 |
| Highlanders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 34.0 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/9/2016 | Jaguares | 8 | 34 | Highlanders |
The algorithm has the Highlanders to win by 11.
The Chiefs had a massive game last time out, drawing with the Highlanders and are now at home against the Sharks who, again drew with the Crusaders! It’s the battle of the draws this weekend.
We have had a look at the previous ten results between these two outfits.
Overall record
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 225 | 205 | 60% | 22.5 |
| Sharks | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 205 | 225 | 40% | 20.5 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19/2018 | Sharks | 28 | 24 | Chiefs |
| 4/29/2016 | Chiefs | 24 | 22 | Sharks |
| 3/21/2015 | Sharks | 12 | 11 | Chiefs |
| 4/27/2013 | Chiefs | 37 | 29 | Sharks |
| 8/4/2012 | Chiefs | 37 | 6 | Sharks |
| 4/21/2012 | Sharks | 12 | 18 | Chiefs |
| 3/18/2011 | Chiefs | 15 | 9 | Sharks |
| 2/13/2010 | Sharks | 18 | 19 | Chiefs |
| 2/28/2009 | Chiefs | 15 | 22 | Sharks |
| 5/17/2008 | Sharks | 47 | 25 | Chiefs |
The Lions are back from a bye and home against the ‘Tahs, who are travelling South Africa. The Lions last played a match against the Crusaders and lost 36-10. However, they are now at home against the Waratahs who lost 28-21 against the Bulls. Both teams are needing a win.
The recent results between these two teams are below.
Overall record
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 244 | 316 | 40% | 24.4 |
| Waratahs | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 316 | 244 | 60% | 31.6 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/28/2018 | Lions | 44 | 26 | Waratahs |
| 4/20/2018 | Waratahs | 0 | 29 | Lions |
| 3/4/2017 | Lions | 55 | 36 | Waratahs |
| 5/30/2015 | Lions | 27 | 22 | Waratahs |
| 5/18/2014 | Waratahs | 41 | 13 | Lions |
| 5/21/2011 | Waratahs | 29 | 12 | Lions |
| 3/12/2010 | Waratahs | 73 | 12 | Lions |
| 5/15/2009 | Lions | 33 | 38 | Waratahs |
| 4/19/2008 | Waratahs | 26 | 3 | Lions |
| 2/2/2007 | Lions | 16 | 25 | Waratahs |
As you can see, the overall wins have gone to the men from NSW, however, when at home the Lions have slightly edged them winning three and losing two.
The algorithm has Lions to win by ten.
The Brumbies came back and won against a resurgent 2019 Blues team and will be looking forward to this round. The Sunwolves have been close in the majority of their games this year, usually failing in the final quarter, and it was the same last round, losing 32-26 to the Reds.
We have had a look at the previous results between these two teams
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brumbies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 61 | 100% | 46.3 |
| Sunwolves | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 61 | 139 | 0% | 20.3 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3/2018 | Brumbies | 41 | 31 | Sunwolves |
| 2/24/2018 | Sunwolves | 25 | 32 | Brumbies |
| 5/28/2016 | Brumbies | 66 | 5 | Sunwolves |
The algorithm has Brumbies to win by 17.
What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.
Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.
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