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Super Rugby stats preview: Round 12 wrap and Round 13 preview

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Roar Guru
9th May, 2019
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Another good round for the algorithm. Aside from the draws, because, you know, who predicts draws? Madness.

So, what happened?

The biggest surprise was certainly the Crusaders and Sharks draw, which is the first time the Crusaders haven’t won at home (aside from the British and Irish Lions) since 2016 when they lost to the Hurricanes.

Round 12 debrief

Super Rugby Round 12 predicted vs actual
Season accuracy 48 correct from 78 :61.5% Season margin of error: 12.88
Weekend accuracy: 5 correct from 7: 71.4% Weekend margin error: 7.14
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin of error
Crusaders 21 45 No 21
Sharks 21 24
Reds 32 37 Yes 6
Sunwolves 26 25
Hurricanes 29 41 Yes 10
Rebels 19 21
Highlanders 31 29 No 8
Chiefs 31 21
Brumbies 26 25 Yes 1
Blues 21 19
Bulls 28 23 Yes 2
Waratahs 21 28
Jaguares 30 24 Yes 2
Stormers 25 17

Round 13 Matches and Predictions

So, here are the predictions of the algorithm for the next round of Super Rugby.

Super Rugby Round 13 predictions
Season accuracy: 48 correct from 78: 61.5% Season margin error: 12.88
Teams Predicted score Chance of winning Prediction
Blues 23 34.8% Hurricanes to win by 5
Hurricanes 28 63.1%
Rebels 26 68.5% Rebels to win by 8
Reds 18 29.6%
Bulls 29 23.4% Crusaders to win by 11
Crusaders 40 74.7%
Lions 43 72.2% Lions to win by 10
Waratahs 33 25.9%
Chiefs 30 73% Chiefs to win by 11
Sharks 19 25.1%
Highlanders 39 76.7% Highlanders to win by 11
Jaguares 28 21.5%
Brumbies 45 88.1% Brumbies to win by 17
Stormers 28 10.5%

Blues vs Hurricanes

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This could be some match-up. The Blues have won four games at home and, although they lost against the Brumbies, they would have taken some confidence in their style of play this year under new management.

The Hurricanes play expansive rugby that we know and love, but will be looking at their defence closely after letting the Rebels come back after leading 26-0 at half time.

We have had a look at the previous results between these two teams played in the Blues backyard.

Last five matches in Auckland

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Blues 5 1 4 0 100 140 20% 20.0
Hurricanes 5 4 1 0 140 100 80% 28.0
Date Home Score Score Away
Date Home Away
5/11/2018 Blues 15 36 Hurricanes
4/15/2017 Blues 24 28 Hurricanes
3/11/2016 Blues 19 23 Hurricanes
5/23/2015 Blues 5 29 Hurricanes
5/31/2014 Blues 37 24 Hurricanes

Overall, it’s eight wins apiece, but interestingly, the last four games have gone to the ‘Canes, with the last home win for the Blues against the Hurricanes occurring in 2014.

Will we see an upset? The algorithm has Hurricanes to win by five.

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Rebels vs Reds

The Reds had a ding dong battle last week against the Sunwolves, but eventually came through 32-26. They will need to bring something else to the table when travelling to Melbourne.

We have had a look at the previous ten results between these two teams with the Rebels leading the head-to-head slightly.

Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Rebels 10 6 4 0 282 273 60% 28.2
Reds 10 4 6 0 273 282 40% 27.3
Date Home Score Score Away
3/30/2019 Reds 13 32 Rebels
7/6/2018 Reds 37 23 Rebels
2/23/2018 Rebels 45 19 Reds
5/13/2017 Rebels 24 29 Reds
7/15/2016 Reds 28 31 Rebels
3/12/2016 Rebels 25 23 Reds
5/15/2015 Reds 46 29 Rebels
4/3/2015 Rebels 23 15 Reds
6/27/2014 Rebels 20 36 Reds
5/17/2014 Reds 27 30 Rebels

The algorithm has the Rebels to win by eight.

Blues vs Crusaders

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The Bulls won last weekend at home against the Waratahs, again. It has now been 6,267 days (as of May 7, 2019) since the Waratahs won in Pretoria, back in 2002. Quite a streak for the Bulls. The Crusaders will be looking to bounce back after last week’s shock draw against the Sharks.

We have had a look at the last ten results between the Bulls and Crusaders.

Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Bulls 10 5 5 0 248 322 50% 24.8
Crusaders 10 5 5 0 322 248 50% 32.2
Date Home Score Score Away
Date Home Away
3/23/2018 Crusaders 33 14 Bulls
5/6/2017 Bulls 24 62 Crusaders
3/28/2015 Bulls 31 19 Crusaders
3/16/2013 Crusaders 41 19 Bulls
7/21/2012 Crusaders 28 13 Bulls
4/7/2012 Bulls 32 30 Crusaders
4/9/2011 Crusaders 27 0 Bulls
5/22/2010 Bulls 39 24 Crusaders
5/7/2010 Bulls 40 35 Crusaders
5/23/2009 Bulls 36 23 Crusaders

Five apiece, but nine out of the last 10 have gone to the home side, the only exception being the last game in Pretoria.

The algorithm has Crusaders to win by 11 however, will it be this heavy?

Highlanders vs Jaguares

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The Highlanders had a contender for the match of the season last round against the Chiefs and are up against a winning Jaguares team who took the Stormers last round.

These two teams have only played each other once in Super Rugby history which went the way of the Highlanders.

Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Jaguares 1 0 1 0 8 34 0% 8.0
Highlanders 1 1 0 0 34 8 100% 34.0
Date Home Score Score Away
7/9/2016 Jaguares 8 34 Highlanders

The algorithm has the Highlanders to win by 11.

Chiefs vs Sharks

The Chiefs had a massive game last time out, drawing with the Highlanders and are now at home against the Sharks who, again drew with the Crusaders! It’s the battle of the draws this weekend.

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We have had a look at the previous ten results between these two outfits.

Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Chiefs 10 6 4 0 225 205 60% 22.5
Sharks 10 4 6 0 205 225 40% 20.5
Date Home Score Score Away
5/19/2018 Sharks 28 24 Chiefs
4/29/2016 Chiefs 24 22 Sharks
3/21/2015 Sharks 12 11 Chiefs
4/27/2013 Chiefs 37 29 Sharks
8/4/2012 Chiefs 37 6 Sharks
4/21/2012 Sharks 12 18 Chiefs
3/18/2011 Chiefs 15 9 Sharks
2/13/2010 Sharks 18 19 Chiefs
2/28/2009 Chiefs 15 22 Sharks
5/17/2008 Sharks 47 25 Chiefs

Lions vs Waratahs

The Lions are back from a bye and home against the ‘Tahs, who are travelling South Africa. The Lions last played a match against the Crusaders and lost 36-10. However, they are now at home against the Waratahs who lost 28-21 against the Bulls. Both teams are needing a win.

The recent results between these two teams are below.

Overall record

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P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Lions 10 4 6 0 244 316 40% 24.4
Waratahs 10 6 4 0 316 244 60% 31.6
Date Home Score Score Away
7/28/2018 Lions 44 26 Waratahs
4/20/2018 Waratahs 0 29 Lions
3/4/2017 Lions 55 36 Waratahs
5/30/2015 Lions 27 22 Waratahs
5/18/2014 Waratahs 41 13 Lions
5/21/2011 Waratahs 29 12 Lions
3/12/2010 Waratahs 73 12 Lions
5/15/2009 Lions 33 38 Waratahs
4/19/2008 Waratahs 26 3 Lions
2/2/2007 Lions 16 25 Waratahs

As you can see, the overall wins have gone to the men from NSW, however, when at home the Lions have slightly edged them winning three and losing two.

The algorithm has Lions to win by ten.

Brumbies vs Sunwolves

The Brumbies came back and won against a resurgent 2019 Blues team and will be looking forward to this round. The Sunwolves have been close in the majority of their games this year, usually failing in the final quarter, and it was the same last round, losing 32-26 to the Reds.

We have had a look at the previous results between these two teams

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Brumbies 3 3 0 0 139 61 100% 46.3
Sunwolves 3 0 3 0 61 139 0% 20.3
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Date Home Score Score Away
6/3/2018 Brumbies 41 31 Sunwolves
2/24/2018 Sunwolves 25 32 Brumbies
5/28/2016 Brumbies 66 5 Sunwolves

The algorithm has Brumbies to win by 17.

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.