Get in – seven from seven!
The Algorithm was right on the money for Round 13. Finally. Up was up. Left was left. The Crusaders won. The Sunwolves lost. All went as expected. Finally.
See below for the ins and outs of how the results actually stacked up against the predictions.
| Super Rugby Round 13 predicted vs actual | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season accuracy 55 correct from 85 :64.7% | Season margin of error: 12.58 | |||
| Weekend accuracy: 7 correct from 7: 100% | Weekend margin error: 9.14 | |||
| Teams | Actual score | Predicted score | Correct | Margin of error |
| Rebels | 30 | 26 | Yes | 2 |
| Reds | 24 | 18 | ||
| Bulls | 13 | 29 | Yes | 21 |
| Crusaders | 45 | 40 | ||
| Blues | 12 | 23 | Yes | 5 |
| Hurricanes | 22 | 28 | ||
| Lions | 29 | 43 | Yes | 9 |
| Waratahs | 28 | 33 | ||
| Highlanders | 32 | 39 | Yes | 6 |
| Jaguares | 27 | 28 | ||
| Chiefs | 29 | 30 | Yes | 5 |
| Sharks | 23 | 19 | ||
| Brumbies | 33 | 45 | Yes | 16 |
| Sunwolves | 0 | 28 | ||
We are over halfway through the season and there are currently fourteen out of fifteen teams still in with a change of making the playoffs. This could be one of the most competitive years of Super Rugby ever.
So, here are the predictions of the algorithm for the next round of Super Rugby.
| Super Rugby Round 13 predictions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season accuracy: 55 correct from 85: 64.7% | Season margin error: 12.58 | |||
| Teams | Predicted score | Chance of winning | Prediction | |
| Hurricanes | 44 | 83.1% | Hurricanes to win by 15 | |
| Jaguares | 29 | 15.3% | ||
| Lions | 36 | 58.5% | Lions to win by 3 | |
| Highlanders | 33 | 39.4% | ||
| Blues | 21 | 51.4% | Blues to win by 1 | |
| Chiefs | 20 | 46.5% | ||
| Reds | 23 | 45.2% | Waratahs to win by 1 | |
| Waratahs | 24 | 52.6% | ||
| Rebels | 28 | 55.3% | Rebels to win by 4 | |
| Bulls | 24 | 42.6% | ||
| Stormers | 21 | 24% | Crusaders to win by 11 | |
| Crusaders | 32 | 74.2% | ||
Some tight stuff in there. No doubt these have been sent from above as retribution for last week’s easy picks. Well, bring it on round 14. Bring it on. We’re game for it.
The Hurricanes won again in Round 13 and now play the Jaguares at home. The Jaguares have been playing well this season and are building on what was a successful season last year. They are currently sitting 3rd in a competitive South African conference.
We have had a look at the previous games between these two sides with the ‘Canes, perhaps unsurprisingly, coming out on top
Head-to-head
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 31 | 100% | 37.0 |
| Jaguares | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 74 | 0% | 15.5 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/3/2018 | Jaguares | 9 | 34 | Hurricanes |
| 4/9/2016 | Hurricanes | 40 | 22 | Jaguares |
The algorithm has The Hurricanes to win by 15.
The Rebels won at home against the Reds and are at home again this weekend against the Bulls. The Bulls last week were thrashed by the Crusaders.
We have had a look at the Bulls away record recently.
Bulls away record
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 219 | 284 | 30% | 21.9 |
| Opposition | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 284 | 219 | 70% | 28.4 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/27/2019 | Stormers | 24 | 23 | Bulls |
| 3/30/2019 | Sharks | 16 | 19 | Bulls |
| 3/2/2019 | Lions | 12 | 30 | Bulls |
| 2/23/2019 | Jaguares | 27 | 12 | Bulls |
| 7/14/2018 | Lions | 38 | 12 | Bulls |
| 5/19/2018 | Jaguares | 54 | 24 | Bulls |
| 5/5/2018 | Stormers | 29 | 17 | Bulls |
| 4/14/2018 | Sharks | 10 | 40 | Bulls |
| 3/23/2018 | Crusaders | 33 | 14 | Bulls |
| 3/16/2018 | Chiefs | 41 | 28 | Bulls |
And also had a look at these two teams record against each other.
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/21/2018 | Bulls | 28 | 10 | Rebels |
| 3/5/2016 | Bulls | 45 | 25 | Rebels |
| 6/6/2015 | Rebels | 21 | 20 | Bulls |
| 7/11/2014 | Bulls | 40 | 7 | Rebels |
| 5/4/2012 | Rebels | 35 | 41 | Bulls |
| 5/14/2011 | Bulls | 47 | 10 | Rebels |
Advantage the Bulls, but could it be different this time? The algorithm thinks so, and has the Rebels to win by 4. Tight.
The Blues had a decent game against the ‘Canes last week, losing out 12-22. In my opinion, this weekend will be a cracker of a game. The Chiefs are coming into some form and won against the Sharks last time out. The Blues have been great at home this year as well, so make sure you tune in for this one!
Here are the current record between these two outfits. Not great for the Blues really, but they are much improved this year…
Last ten matches
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 10 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 196 | 256 | 0% | 19.6 |
| Chiefs | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 256 | 196 | 90% | 25.6 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/13/2019 | Chiefs | 33 | 29 | Blues |
| 4/7/2018 | Chiefs | 21 | 19 | Blues |
| 3/2/2018 | Blues | 21 | 27 | Chiefs |
| 5/26/2017 | Blues | 16 | 16 | Chiefs |
| 3/3/2017 | Chiefs | 41 | 26 | Blues |
| 4/8/2016 | Chiefs | 29 | 23 | Blues |
| 4/4/2015 | Chiefs | 23 | 16 | Blues |
| 2/14/2015 | Blues | 18 | 23 | Chiefs |
| 7/11/2014 | Blues | 8 | 11 | Chiefs |
| 5/9/2014 | Chiefs | 32 | 20 | Blues |
The algorithm agrees, and has the Blues to win by 1, gaining their first win over the Chiefs since 2011.
These two teams have always had a fierce rivalry, but recently the Waratahs have taken a real grasp on the head to head, winning the last ten matches. The Reds will be wanting to stop the rot this time round.
Last ten matches
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 141 | 311 | 0% | 14.1 |
| Waratahs | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 311 | 141 | 100% | 31.1 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/9/2019 | Waratahs | 28 | 17 | Reds |
| 6/2/2018 | Reds | 41 | 52 | Waratahs |
| 4/14/2018 | Waratahs | 37 | 16 | Reds |
| 4/29/2017 | Reds | 26 | 29 | Waratahs |
| 3/27/2016 | Reds | 13 | 15 | Waratahs |
| 2/27/2016 | Waratahs | 30 | 10 | Reds |
| 6/13/2015 | Waratahs | 31 | 5 | Reds |
| 3/7/2015 | Reds | 5 | 23 | Waratahs |
| 7/12/2014 | Reds | 3 | 34 | Waratahs |
| 3/1/2014 | Waratahs | 32 | 5 | Reds |
The algorithm gives them a reasonable chance, with the Waratahs predicted to win by a mere one point. Another tight game.
The Lions played a thriller at home to the ‘Tahs winning by a single point. They are at home again against the mighty Highlanders. The Highlanders also won last weekend beating the Jaguares 32-27.
So how do these teams match up? We have had a look at previous matches with the Lions being at home.
Head-to-head when Lions play at home
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 168 | 88% | 32.0 |
| Highlanders | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 168 | 256 | 13% | 21.0 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2016 | Lions | 42 | 30 | Highlanders |
| 5/9/2015 | Lions | 28 | 23 | Highlanders |
| 5/8/2009 | Lions | 27 | 22 | Highlanders |
| 2/10/2007 | Lions | 11 | 6 | Highlanders |
| 3/25/2005 | Lions | 12 | 16 | Highlanders |
| 3/15/2003 | Lions | 33 | 21 | Highlanders |
| 3/3/2001 | Lions | 56 | 21 | Highlanders |
| 3/14/1997 | Lions | 47 | 29 | Highlanders |
A strong record for the Lions, but they have been a little off form this year. The algorithm still backs them, however, but it could be tighter than usual. It has the Lions to win by 3.
The Stormers are back after a bye and are playing the Crusaders who won comfortably 45-13 away against the Bulls.
How do you think the Stormers are going to get on? Looking at their record against the Crusaders it might be a bridge too far…
Last ten matches
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stormers | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 176 | 262 | 10.0% | 17.6 |
| Crusaders | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 176 | 90.0% | 26.2 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/3/2018 | Crusaders | 45 | 28 | Stormers |
| 4/22/2017 | Crusaders | 57 | 24 | Stormers |
| 3/8/2014 | Crusaders | 14 | 13 | Stormers |
| 3/30/2013 | Stormers | 14 | 19 | Crusaders |
| 4/14/2012 | Crusaders | 31 | 24 | Stormers |
| 7/2/2011 | Stormers | 10 | 29 | Crusaders |
| 5/7/2011 | Stormers | 14 | 20 | Crusaders |
| 4/30/2010 | Stormers | 42 | 14 | Crusaders |
| 3/28/2009 | Crusaders | 11 | 7 | Stormers |
| 2/29/2008 | Stormers | 0 | 22 | Crusaders |
What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.
Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.
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