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Super Rugby stats preview: Round 13 wrap and Round 14 preview

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Roar Rookie
15th May, 2019
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2229 Reads

Get in – seven from seven!

The Algorithm was right on the money for Round 13. Finally. Up was up. Left was left. The Crusaders won. The Sunwolves lost. All went as expected. Finally.

See below for the ins and outs of how the results actually stacked up against the predictions.

Round 13 debrief

Super Rugby Round 13 predicted vs actual
Season accuracy 55 correct from 85 :64.7% Season margin of error: 12.58
Weekend accuracy: 7 correct from 7: 100% Weekend margin error: 9.14
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin of error
Rebels 30 26 Yes 2
Reds 24 18
Bulls 13 29 Yes 21
Crusaders 45 40
Blues 12 23 Yes 5
Hurricanes 22 28
Lions 29 43 Yes 9
Waratahs 28 33
Highlanders 32 39 Yes 6
Jaguares 27 28
Chiefs 29 30 Yes 5
Sharks 23 19
Brumbies 33 45 Yes 16
Sunwolves 0 28

We are over halfway through the season and there are currently fourteen out of fifteen teams still in with a change of making the playoffs. This could be one of the most competitive years of Super Rugby ever.

Round 14 matches and predicitions

So, here are the predictions of the algorithm for the next round of Super Rugby.

Super Rugby Round 13 predictions
Season accuracy: 55 correct from 85: 64.7% Season margin error: 12.58
Teams Predicted score Chance of winning Prediction
Hurricanes 44 83.1% Hurricanes to win by 15
Jaguares 29 15.3%
Lions 36 58.5% Lions to win by 3
Highlanders 33 39.4%
Blues 21 51.4% Blues to win by 1
Chiefs 20 46.5%
Reds 23 45.2% Waratahs to win by 1
Waratahs 24 52.6%
Rebels 28 55.3% Rebels to win by 4
Bulls 24 42.6%
Stormers 21 24% Crusaders to win by 11
Crusaders 32 74.2%
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Some tight stuff in there. No doubt these have been sent from above as retribution for last week’s easy picks. Well, bring it on round 14. Bring it on. We’re game for it.

Hurricanes vs Jaguares

The Hurricanes won again in Round 13 and now play the Jaguares at home. The Jaguares have been playing well this season and are building on what was a successful season last year. They are currently sitting 3rd in a competitive South African conference.

We have had a look at the previous games between these two sides with the ‘Canes, perhaps unsurprisingly, coming out on top

Head-to-head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Hurricanes 2 2 0 0 74 31 100% 37.0
Jaguares 2 0 2 0 31 74 0% 15.5
Date Home Score Score Away
3/3/2018 Jaguares 9 34 Hurricanes
4/9/2016 Hurricanes 40 22 Jaguares

The algorithm has The Hurricanes to win by 15.

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Rebels vs Bulls

The Rebels won at home against the Reds and are at home again this weekend against the Bulls. The Bulls last week were thrashed by the Crusaders.

We have had a look at the Bulls away record recently.

Bulls away record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Bulls 10 3 7 0 219 284 30% 21.9
Opposition 10 7 3 0 284 219 70% 28.4
Date Home Score Score Away
4/27/2019 Stormers 24 23 Bulls
3/30/2019 Sharks 16 19 Bulls
3/2/2019 Lions 12 30 Bulls
2/23/2019 Jaguares 27 12 Bulls
7/14/2018 Lions 38 12 Bulls
5/19/2018 Jaguares 54 24 Bulls
5/5/2018 Stormers 29 17 Bulls
4/14/2018 Sharks 10 40 Bulls
3/23/2018 Crusaders 33 14 Bulls
3/16/2018 Chiefs 41 28 Bulls

And also had a look at these two teams record against each other.

Date Home Score Score Away
4/21/2018 Bulls 28 10 Rebels
3/5/2016 Bulls 45 25 Rebels
6/6/2015 Rebels 21 20 Bulls
7/11/2014 Bulls 40 7 Rebels
5/4/2012 Rebels 35 41 Bulls
5/14/2011 Bulls 47 10 Rebels
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Advantage the Bulls, but could it be different this time? The algorithm thinks so, and has the Rebels to win by 4. Tight.

Blues vs Chiefs

The Blues had a decent game against the ‘Canes last week, losing out 12-22. In my opinion, this weekend will be a cracker of a game. The Chiefs are coming into some form and won against the Sharks last time out. The Blues have been great at home this year as well, so make sure you tune in for this one!

Here are the current record between these two outfits. Not great for the Blues really, but they are much improved this year…

Last ten matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Blues 10 0 9 1 196 256 0% 19.6
Chiefs 10 9 0 1 256 196 90% 25.6
Date Home Score Score Away
4/13/2019 Chiefs 33 29 Blues
4/7/2018 Chiefs 21 19 Blues
3/2/2018 Blues 21 27 Chiefs
5/26/2017 Blues 16 16 Chiefs
3/3/2017 Chiefs 41 26 Blues
4/8/2016 Chiefs 29 23 Blues
4/4/2015 Chiefs 23 16 Blues
2/14/2015 Blues 18 23 Chiefs
7/11/2014 Blues 8 11 Chiefs
5/9/2014 Chiefs 32 20 Blues

The algorithm agrees, and has the Blues to win by 1, gaining their first win over the Chiefs since 2011.

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Reds vs Waratahs

These two teams have always had a fierce rivalry, but recently the Waratahs have taken a real grasp on the head to head, winning the last ten matches. The Reds will be wanting to stop the rot this time round.

Last ten matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Reds 10 0 10 0 141 311 0% 14.1
Waratahs 10 10 0 0 311 141 100% 31.1
Date Home Score Score Away
3/9/2019 Waratahs 28 17 Reds
6/2/2018 Reds 41 52 Waratahs
4/14/2018 Waratahs 37 16 Reds
4/29/2017 Reds 26 29 Waratahs
3/27/2016 Reds 13 15 Waratahs
2/27/2016 Waratahs 30 10 Reds
6/13/2015 Waratahs 31 5 Reds
3/7/2015 Reds 5 23 Waratahs
7/12/2014 Reds 3 34 Waratahs
3/1/2014 Waratahs 32 5 Reds

The algorithm gives them a reasonable chance, with the Waratahs predicted to win by a mere one point. Another tight game.

Lions vs Highlanders

The Lions played a thriller at home to the ‘Tahs winning by a single point. They are at home again against the mighty Highlanders. The Highlanders also won last weekend beating the Jaguares 32-27.

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So how do these teams match up? We have had a look at previous matches with the Lions being at home.

Head-to-head when Lions play at home

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Lions 8 7 1 0 256 168 88% 32.0
Highlanders 8 1 7 0 168 256 13% 21.0
Date Home Score Score Away
7/30/2016 Lions 42 30 Highlanders
5/9/2015 Lions 28 23 Highlanders
5/8/2009 Lions 27 22 Highlanders
2/10/2007 Lions 11 6 Highlanders
3/25/2005 Lions 12 16 Highlanders
3/15/2003 Lions 33 21 Highlanders
3/3/2001 Lions 56 21 Highlanders
3/14/1997 Lions 47 29 Highlanders

A strong record for the Lions, but they have been a little off form this year. The algorithm still backs them, however, but it could be tighter than usual. It has the Lions to win by 3.

Stormers vs Crusaders

The Stormers are back after a bye and are playing the Crusaders who won comfortably 45-13 away against the Bulls.

How do you think the Stormers are going to get on? Looking at their record against the Crusaders it might be a bridge too far…

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Last ten matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Stormers 10 1 9 0 176 262 10.0% 17.6
Crusaders 10 9 1 0 262 176 90.0% 26.2
Date Home Score Score Away
3/3/2018 Crusaders 45 28 Stormers
4/22/2017 Crusaders 57 24 Stormers
3/8/2014 Crusaders 14 13 Stormers
3/30/2013 Stormers 14 19 Crusaders
4/14/2012 Crusaders 31 24 Stormers
7/2/2011 Stormers 10 29 Crusaders
5/7/2011 Stormers 14 20 Crusaders
4/30/2010 Stormers 42 14 Crusaders
3/28/2009 Crusaders 11 7 Stormers
2/29/2008 Stormers 0 22 Crusaders

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.