It’s an old cliche, but it holds true: a week is a long time in football.
After a competitive showing against Collingwood in Round 8, Carlton had their colours severely lowered against GWS last weekend, leaving the media, fans and wider football community questioning the players’ endeavour and the direction of the club.
Unfortunately for coach Brendon Bolton, if his side had played on Saturday afternoon, the negative attention could have potentially been shared, with North Melbourne and their continual regression. However, being the last match of the round, Sunday evening had everyone watching the 93-point thrashing, which regrettably had Carlton headlining for all the wrong reasons.
As expected, we saw Blues president Mark LoGiudice and football director Chris Judd publically declare that the club still believes Bolton to be the right man despite the weekend’s loss. Round 6 saw the Blues lose a heartbreaker to the Hawks in Launceston. After leading by as much as six goals, it didn’t surprise many that the coaching brilliance of Alastair Clarkson was able to snatch victory, with Carlton going down by less than a goal. It was a game the Blues should have won, but it was ultimately chalked up as one that got away.
But what was more disappointing was their effort in Round 7 against the Kangaroos. A 58-point loss that many considered a very winnable game meant all the praise many had given Carlton the week before seem meaningless. However, skipper Patty Cripps fronted up and publically stated that the club would respond against arch rival Collingwood, and they delivered – but, once again, late in the fourth quarter and from a very winnable position Carlton had their efforts go unrewarded to record yet another honourable loss.
Are Carlton actually improving? (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The public consensus surrounding the current rebuild at Carlton is that it has stagnated or perhaps regressed, so I decided to take a look back at the numbers and compare Carlton’s progress to that of the Demons rebuild under Paul Roos.
When Paul Roos left Sydney he was adamant that his coaching days were behind him. He made this publically clear. However, the AFL did its best to convince Roos to commit for a three-year term with Melbourne, leading to a successor, Simon Goodwin, being appointed in his place at the end of his tenure.
Many forget just how dire things were at Melbourne in 2013 before Paul Roos stepped in. If you take a quick look back, they had six coaches in six years (including caretaker coaches); everyone was questioning their scouting, drafting and ability to develop players; and they were slapped with a $500,000 fine by the AFL for what most of us understood to be tanking.
Melbourne rebuild under Paul Roos
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| Losses by 60-plus points | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Avg. losing margin (excluding 60-plus-point defeats) | 18.23 points | 31.54 points | 25.54 points |
| Avg. score for | 60.72 | 71.50 | 88.36 |
| Avg. score against | 88.81 | 92.9 | 90.5 |
Without going back and watching any vision to determine the rate of progress, the raw numbers in this table speak for themselves. Paul Roos started by instilling a defensive foundation that would eventually lead to attack. As you can see, in his first year they had more 60-plus-point losses than wins, which is inevitable when you have such a young group learning a new system. But if you exclude those ten-goal defeats, they lost by an average margin of just over three goals for that entire season, which most would consider competitive at the least.
As we progress through 2015 and 2016, you can see the number of wins increase and the number of heavy defeats decrease. Melbourne’s overall scoring surges by almost two goals a game and their scores against remain relatively steady. As a result, being more attacking leaves them more susceptible to being scored against, which is why we can see an increase in the average losing margin excluding the ten-goal defeats.
Just by looking at that table it’s conclusively obvious Melbourne was taking leaps in the right direction every year under Roos.
Carlton rebuild under Brendon Bolton
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1* |
| Losses by 60-plus points | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1* |
| Avg. losing margin (excluding 60-plus-point defeats) | 20.3 points | 21.76 points | 28.61 points | 21.71 points* |
| Avg. score for | 71.27 | 72.45 | 61.50 | 72.22* |
| Avg. score against | 89.91 | 92.64 | 103.72 | 94.55* |
It is important to remember that when Bolton took over at Carlton he was left with a team that had spent the last two and a half failed seasons under Mick Malthouse. In that time there was an exodus of senior players, all of whom I’m sure Brendon Bolton wishes he still had access to today.
At the time of Bolton’s appointment the general feeling about Carlton was that this list had to be gutted and take a few steps back before it could go forward. The table of statistics supports that statement; however, comparing Melbourne’s progress to that of Carlton’s has many questioning if Bolton is the right man to take this club to the next step.
A lot has been said about the number of players Carlton has turned over during Bolton’s tenure as senior coach and the excuses are starting to wear thin with their fans. As you look further into their schedule for the rest of the year, it’s hard to see where their next win comes from based on current form.
I think as an industry the AFL and surrounding media have taken massive steps in becoming more patient with senior coaches. I think previously we were too quick to petition for the sacking of coaches and maybe Brendon Bolton has Damien Hardwick and Nathan Buckley to thank for that. We all know progress in a rebuild can’t be measured via the win and loss columns, but eventually the losses will start to mount up.
Coach of the Blues Brendon Bolton (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Three wins in 31 games and efforts such as those the Blues rolled out against North Melbourne and the Giants are starting to look ugly for Bolton.
I certainly hope Brendon Bolton makes it through this rebuild to enjoy the wins that are inevitably on the other side. But as they say, a week is a long time in football, so let’s see if the Blues can respond this weekend against St Kilda.
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