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Super Rugby stats preview: Round 14 wrap and Round 15 preview

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Roar Rookie
23rd May, 2019
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Well, well, well. We thought we knew what we were doing after Round 13. Crazy Super Rugby strikes again.

Who picked another draw? We certainly didn’t, and were as surprised as any when the Crusaders drew with the Stormers – their second draw with a South African side in three weeks.

What else happened? The Waratahs claimed their 11th straight win over the Reds, the Jaguares made history winning in Wellington for the first time and the Highlanders remained winless against the Lions in Johannesburg.

Here’s how the algorithm fared. According to Superbru, better than most.

Round 14 debrief

Super Rugby Round 14 predicted vs actual
Season accuracy 58 correct from 91: 63.7% Season margin of error: 12.63
Weekend accuracy: 3 correct from 6: 50% Weekend margin error: 13.33
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin of error
Rebels 17 28 No 19
Bulls 32 24
Hurricanes 20 44 No 23
Jaguares 28 29
Stormers 19 21 No 11
Crusaders 19 32
Lions 38 36 Yes 6
Highlanders 29 33
Reds 32 23 Yes 7
Waratahs 40 24
Blues 23 21 Yes 14
Chiefs 8 20

Round 15 predictions

Below are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round.

Super Rugby Round 15 predictions
Season accuracy: 58 correct from 91: 63.7% Season margin error: 12.63
Teams Predicted score Chance of winning Prediction
Chiefs 31 85.8% Chiefs by 16
Reds 15 12.8%
Brumbies 27 68.8% Brumbies by 7
Bulls 20 29.2%
Sunwolves 19 43.3% Rebels by 3
Rebels 22 54.4%
Stormers 28 46.7% Highlanders by 1
Highlanders 29 51%
Crusaders 43 91.6% Crusaders by 20
Blues 23 7.3%
Waratahs 31 62.2% Waratahs by 5
Jaguares 26 35.6%
Sharks 25 57.1% Sharks by 3
Lions 22 40.7%
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Chiefs vs Reds
The Chiefs got thumped by the Blues in Auckland last weekend, but will be playing at home against another team struggling this season – the Reds. The Reds lost against the Waratahs 32-40 in their last outing and both them and the Chiefs will be searching for some answers. We have had a look at the previous matches between these two sides below.

Last ten matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Chiefs 10 6 4 0 317 198 60% 31.7
Reds 10 4 6 0 198 317 40% 19.8
Date Home Score Score Away
21/4/2018 Reds 12 36 Chiefs
6/5/2017 Chiefs 46 17 Reds
8/7/2016 Reds 5 50 Chiefs
6/6/2015 Reds 3 24 Chiefs
13/4/2013 Chiefs 23 31 Reds
13/5/2012 Reds 42 27 Chiefs
18/6/2011 Chiefs 11 19 Reds
5/3/2010 Chiefs 18 23 Reds
28/3/2009 Reds 26 50 Chiefs
26/4/2008 Chiefs 32 20 Reds

The Chiefs have won the last four in a row. The algorithm has this trend continuing and has the Chiefs to win by 16.

Brumbies vs Bulls
The Brumbies were on a bye last weekend after they won at home against the Sunwolves 33-0 in Round 13. They are at home against a Bulls side who won away from home against the Rebels 32-17.

The Brumbies are top dogs at the moment in the Australian conference, but only just – a mere point separating them from the Rebels. The Bulls are also top of the South African conference – on points difference from the Jaguares. A top of the table clash then. Tasty stuff.

Here are the latest matches between these two teams.

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Last ten matches

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Brumbies 10 6 4 0 270 282 60% 27
Bulls 10 4 6 0 282 270 40% 28.2
Date Home Score Score Away
26/5/2018 Bulls 28 38 Brumbies
6/5/2016 Brumbies 23 6 Bulls
29/5/2015 Brumbies 22 16 Bulls
23/5/2014 Bulls 44 23 Brumbies
27/7/2013 Bulls 23 26 Brumbies
30/3/2013 Brumbies 23 20 Bulls
21/4/2012 Bulls 36 34 Brumbies
20/2/2010 Bulls 50 32 Brumbies
17/4/2009 Brumbies 32 31 Bulls
9/5/2008 Bulls 28 17 Brumbies

The algorithm has the Brumbies to win by seven.

Sunwolves vs Rebels
The Sunwolves were getting some rest last round and are back in action against the Rebels this round. The Sunwolves have been decent at home and, with the Rebels losing four out of their last five games, this could be an interesting matchup.

Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sunwolves 4 0 4 0 54 154 0% 13.5
Rebels 4 4 0 0 154 54 100% 38.5
Date Home Score Score Away
6/4/2019 Rebels 42 15 Sunwolves
25/5/2018 Rebels 40 13 Sunwolves
3/3/2018 Sunwolves 17 37 Rebels
19/3/2016 Sunwolves 9 35 Rebels
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The Rebels have been all over the Sunwolves, but can the men from Japan turn this around?

The algorithm has the Rebels to win by three, so perhaps closer than you might think – certainly plenty to play for.

Crusaders vs Blues
Who would have thought these two teams would surprise the most last round? The Crusaders drew again! Also, who would have thought the Blues would have been the only New Zealand team to win in Round 14? They beat the Chiefs for the first time since 2011 – we called it.

In saying this, the Blues haven’t been the best on the road and this weekend they are playing away in Christchurch. Not pleasant reading for Aucklanders.

Crusaders at home

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Crusaders 10 10 0 0 345 149 100% 34.5
Blues 10 4 6 0 149 345 0% 14.9
Date Home Score Score Away
14/7/2018 Crusaders 54 17 Blues
17/3/2017 Crusaders 33 24 Blues
4/3/2016 Crusaders 28 13 Blues
25/4/2015 Crusaders 29 15 Blues
5/7/2014 Crusaders 21 13 Blues
18/5/2013 Crusaders 23 3 Blues
19/5/2012 Crusaders 59 12 Blues
6/3/2010 Crusaders 33 20 Blues
25/4/2008 Crusaders 26 22 Blues
4/3/2006 Crusaders 39 10 Blues

It’s all Crusaders, with an impressive 100 per cent win rate since 2006 and averaging 34.5 points.

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The algorithm has the Crusaders to win by a big margin; 20.

Waratahs vs Jaguares
Both winners last time out, the Jaguares made history winning away in Wellington against the Hurricanes and going joint top of the South African Conference (but second on points difference). The Waratahs inflicted more pain on the struggling Reds by winning a nail biter in Brisbane.

Let’s take a look at these two teams’ overall record.

Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Waratahs 2 0 2 0 55 78 0% 27.5
Jaguares 2 2 0 0 78 55 100% 39
Date Home Score Score Away
10/3/2018 Jaguares 38 28 Waratahs
8/7/2017 Waratahs 27 40 Jaguares

Did anybody have the Jaguares 2-0? We didn’t! However, the algorithm has the Waratahs recording their first win, but by just five points.

Stormers vs Highlanders
The Highlanders lost last round against the Lions and still remain winless against them in Johannesburg. Can they shake off that loss and win against the Stormers who drew last time out against the Crusaders?

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We have had a look at these two teams with the Stormers playing at home.

Stormers at home

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Stormers 11 6 5 0 272 260 55% 24.7
Highlanders 11 5 6 0 260 272 45% 23.6
Date Home Score Score Away
3/5/2014 Stormers 29 28 Highlanders
11/3/2011 Stormers 18 6 Highlanders
6/3/2010 Stormers 33 0 Highlanders
26/4/2008 Stormers 26 16 Highlanders
4/3/2006 Stormers 15 30 Highlanders
28/2/2004 Stormers 46 25 Highlanders
16/3/2002 Stormers 20 21 Highlanders
29/4/2000 Stormers 27 13 Highlanders
23/5/1999 Stormers 18 33 Highlanders
9/5/1998 Stormers 15 36 Highlanders
16/3/1996 Stormers 25 52 Highlanders

A close one really, with the Stormers winning 55 per cent of their games at home against the Highlanders. However, the Highlanders last won in Cape Town back in 2006. A long time ago now.

The algorithm has the Highlanders recording a long overdue victory, by just one point.

Sharks vs Lions
The Lions played out a ten-try thriller against the Highlanders in Round 14 and ended up on the winning end 38-29. The Lions are third in the South African conference currently. However, they are only four points in front of fifth place and just a single point in front of fourth place. Who’s in fourth? The Sharks. Of course they bloody are.

Let’s take a look at the history between these two.

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Overall record

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sharks 10 3 7 0 221 235 30% 22.1
Lions 10 7 3 0 235 221 70% 23.5
Date Home Score Score Away
5/4/2019 Lions 5 42 Sharks
30/6/2018 Sharks 31 24 Lions
17/2/2018 Lions 26 19 Sharks
22/7/2017 Lions 23 21 Sharks
15/7/2017 Sharks 10 27 Lions
1/4/2017 Lions 34 29 Sharks
2/7/2016 Lions 37 10 Sharks
9/4/2016 Sharks 9 24 Lions
11/4/2015 Lions 23 21 Sharks
21/2/2015 Sharks 29 12 Lions

The algorithm has Sharks winning by three.

Conclusion

It’s crunch time in the South African Conference. Although it might not determine final placings for the playoffs, there are very few points between all five teams. The Bulls and Jaguares are in top spot on 32 and the Lions, Sharks and Stormers all separated by four points!

A number of teams could be switching places in the standings this weekend – it’s ripe for one side to grab the conference by the scruff of the neck and take it on.

The Australian conference is also tight, with just six points separating the top four. The algorithm has the top three placed sides (Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs) all to win, so any slip up by one is an opportunity for the others. All to play for.

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This could be one of the tightest Super Rugby competitions in a long time.

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.