Super Rugby stats preview: Round 14 wrap and Round 15 preview

Roar Rookie

23rd May, 2019

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Rugby4Cast

Roar Rookie

23rd May, 2019

1920 Reads

Well, well, well. We thought we knew what we were doing after Round 13. Crazy Super Rugby strikes again.

Who picked another draw? We certainly didn’t, and were as surprised as any when the Crusaders drew with the Stormers – their second draw with a South African side in three weeks.

What else happened? The Waratahs claimed their 11th straight win over the Reds, the Jaguares made history winning in Wellington for the first time and the Highlanders remained winless against the Lions in Johannesburg.

Here’s how the algorithm fared. According to Superbru, better than most.

Round 14 debrief

Super Rugby Round 14 predicted vs actual
Season accuracy 58 correct from 91: 63.7%			Season margin of error: 12.63
Weekend accuracy: 3 correct from 6: 50%			Weekend margin error: 13.33
Teams	Actual score	Predicted score	Correct	Margin of error
Rebels	17	28	No	19
Bulls	32	24	No	19
Hurricanes	20	44	No	23
Jaguares	28	29	No	23
Stormers	19	21	No	11
Crusaders	19	32	No	11
Lions	38	36	Yes	6
Highlanders	29	33	Yes	6
Reds	32	23	Yes	7
Waratahs	40	24	Yes	7
Blues	23	21	Yes	14
Chiefs	8	20	Yes	14

Round 15 predictions

Below are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round.

Super Rugby Round 15 predictions
Season accuracy: 58 correct from 91: 63.7%			Season margin error: 12.63
Teams	Predicted score	Chance of winning	Prediction
Chiefs	31	85.8%	Chiefs by 16
Reds	15	12.8%	Chiefs by 16
Brumbies	27	68.8%	Brumbies by 7
Bulls	20	29.2%	Brumbies by 7
Sunwolves	19	43.3%	Rebels by 3
Rebels	22	54.4%	Rebels by 3
Stormers	28	46.7%	Highlanders by 1
Highlanders	29	51%	Highlanders by 1
Crusaders	43	91.6%	Crusaders by 20
Blues	23	7.3%	Crusaders by 20
Waratahs	31	62.2%	Waratahs by 5
Jaguares	26	35.6%	Waratahs by 5
Sharks	25	57.1%	Sharks by 3
Lions	22	40.7%	Sharks by 3

Chiefs vs Reds
The Chiefs got thumped by the Blues in Auckland last weekend, but will be playing at home against another team struggling this season – the Reds. The Reds lost against the Waratahs 32-40 in their last outing and both them and the Chiefs will be searching for some answers. We have had a look at the previous matches between these two sides below.

Last ten matches

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Chiefs	10	6	4	0	317	198	60%	31.7
Reds	10	4	6	0	198	317	40%	19.8

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
21/4/2018	Reds	12	36	Chiefs
6/5/2017	Chiefs	46	17	Reds
8/7/2016	Reds	5	50	Chiefs
6/6/2015	Reds	3	24	Chiefs
13/4/2013	Chiefs	23	31	Reds
13/5/2012	Reds	42	27	Chiefs
18/6/2011	Chiefs	11	19	Reds
5/3/2010	Chiefs	18	23	Reds
28/3/2009	Reds	26	50	Chiefs
26/4/2008	Chiefs	32	20	Reds

The Chiefs have won the last four in a row. The algorithm has this trend continuing and has the Chiefs to win by 16.

Brumbies vs Bulls
The Brumbies were on a bye last weekend after they won at home against the Sunwolves 33-0 in Round 13. They are at home against a Bulls side who won away from home against the Rebels 32-17.

The Brumbies are top dogs at the moment in the Australian conference, but only just – a mere point separating them from the Rebels. The Bulls are also top of the South African conference – on points difference from the Jaguares. A top of the table clash then. Tasty stuff.

Here are the latest matches between these two teams.

Last ten matches

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Brumbies	10	6	4	0	270	282	60%	27
Bulls	10	4	6	0	282	270	40%	28.2

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
26/5/2018	Bulls	28	38	Brumbies
6/5/2016	Brumbies	23	6	Bulls
29/5/2015	Brumbies	22	16	Bulls
23/5/2014	Bulls	44	23	Brumbies
27/7/2013	Bulls	23	26	Brumbies
30/3/2013	Brumbies	23	20	Bulls
21/4/2012	Bulls	36	34	Brumbies
20/2/2010	Bulls	50	32	Brumbies
17/4/2009	Brumbies	32	31	Bulls
9/5/2008	Bulls	28	17	Brumbies

The algorithm has the Brumbies to win by seven.

Sunwolves vs Rebels
The Sunwolves were getting some rest last round and are back in action against the Rebels this round. The Sunwolves have been decent at home and, with the Rebels losing four out of their last five games, this could be an interesting matchup.

Overall record

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Sunwolves	4	0	4	0	54	154	0%	13.5
Rebels	4	4	0	0	154	54	100%	38.5

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
6/4/2019	Rebels	42	15	Sunwolves
25/5/2018	Rebels	40	13	Sunwolves
3/3/2018	Sunwolves	17	37	Rebels
19/3/2016	Sunwolves	9	35	Rebels

The Rebels have been all over the Sunwolves, but can the men from Japan turn this around?

The algorithm has the Rebels to win by three, so perhaps closer than you might think – certainly plenty to play for.

Crusaders vs Blues
Who would have thought these two teams would surprise the most last round? The Crusaders drew again! Also, who would have thought the Blues would have been the only New Zealand team to win in Round 14? They beat the Chiefs for the first time since 2011 – we called it.

In saying this, the Blues haven’t been the best on the road and this weekend they are playing away in Christchurch. Not pleasant reading for Aucklanders.

Crusaders at home

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Crusaders	10	10	0	0	345	149	100%	34.5
Blues	10	4	6	0	149	345	0%	14.9

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
14/7/2018	Crusaders	54	17	Blues
17/3/2017	Crusaders	33	24	Blues
4/3/2016	Crusaders	28	13	Blues
25/4/2015	Crusaders	29	15	Blues
5/7/2014	Crusaders	21	13	Blues
18/5/2013	Crusaders	23	3	Blues
19/5/2012	Crusaders	59	12	Blues
6/3/2010	Crusaders	33	20	Blues
25/4/2008	Crusaders	26	22	Blues
4/3/2006	Crusaders	39	10	Blues

It’s all Crusaders, with an impressive 100 per cent win rate since 2006 and averaging 34.5 points.

The algorithm has the Crusaders to win by a big margin; 20.

Waratahs vs Jaguares
Both winners last time out, the Jaguares made history winning away in Wellington against the Hurricanes and going joint top of the South African Conference (but second on points difference). The Waratahs inflicted more pain on the struggling Reds by winning a nail biter in Brisbane.

Let’s take a look at these two teams’ overall record.

Overall record

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Waratahs	2	0	2	0	55	78	0%	27.5
Jaguares	2	2	0	0	78	55	100%	39

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
10/3/2018	Jaguares	38	28	Waratahs
8/7/2017	Waratahs	27	40	Jaguares

Did anybody have the Jaguares 2-0? We didn’t! However, the algorithm has the Waratahs recording their first win, but by just five points.

Stormers vs Highlanders
The Highlanders lost last round against the Lions and still remain winless against them in Johannesburg. Can they shake off that loss and win against the Stormers who drew last time out against the Crusaders?

We have had a look at these two teams with the Stormers playing at home.

Stormers at home

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Stormers	11	6	5	0	272	260	55%	24.7
Highlanders	11	5	6	0	260	272	45%	23.6

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
3/5/2014	Stormers	29	28	Highlanders
11/3/2011	Stormers	18	6	Highlanders
6/3/2010	Stormers	33	0	Highlanders
26/4/2008	Stormers	26	16	Highlanders
4/3/2006	Stormers	15	30	Highlanders
28/2/2004	Stormers	46	25	Highlanders
16/3/2002	Stormers	20	21	Highlanders
29/4/2000	Stormers	27	13	Highlanders
23/5/1999	Stormers	18	33	Highlanders
9/5/1998	Stormers	15	36	Highlanders
16/3/1996	Stormers	25	52	Highlanders

A close one really, with the Stormers winning 55 per cent of their games at home against the Highlanders. However, the Highlanders last won in Cape Town back in 2006. A long time ago now.

The algorithm has the Highlanders recording a long overdue victory, by just one point.

Sharks vs Lions
The Lions played out a ten-try thriller against the Highlanders in Round 14 and ended up on the winning end 38-29. The Lions are third in the South African conference currently. However, they are only four points in front of fifth place and just a single point in front of fourth place. Who’s in fourth? The Sharks. Of course they bloody are.

Let’s take a look at the history between these two.

Overall record

	P	W	L	D	F	A	Win %	Avg Pts
Sharks	10	3	7	0	221	235	30%	22.1
Lions	10	7	3	0	235	221	70%	23.5

Date	Home	Score	Score	Away
5/4/2019	Lions	5	42	Sharks
30/6/2018	Sharks	31	24	Lions
17/2/2018	Lions	26	19	Sharks
22/7/2017	Lions	23	21	Sharks
15/7/2017	Sharks	10	27	Lions
1/4/2017	Lions	34	29	Sharks
2/7/2016	Lions	37	10	Sharks
9/4/2016	Sharks	9	24	Lions
11/4/2015	Lions	23	21	Sharks
21/2/2015	Sharks	29	12	Lions

The algorithm has Sharks winning by three.

Conclusion

It’s crunch time in the South African Conference. Although it might not determine final placings for the playoffs, there are very few points between all five teams. The Bulls and Jaguares are in top spot on 32 and the Lions, Sharks and Stormers all separated by four points!

A number of teams could be switching places in the standings this weekend – it’s ripe for one side to grab the conference by the scruff of the neck and take it on.

The Australian conference is also tight, with just six points separating the top four. The algorithm has the top three placed sides (Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs) all to win, so any slip up by one is an opportunity for the others. All to play for.

This could be one of the tightest Super Rugby competitions in a long time.

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.

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Rugby4Cast

Roar Rookie

Rugby4Cast aims to provide a stats-based approach to rugby previews and look closely at the histories, rankings and form heading into matches.