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The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 11

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Editor
29th May, 2019
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6752 Reads

If you’re a fan of nine-game weekends, savour them while you can. Round 11 of the AFL is the last week of regular action before we hit the dreaded bye rounds.

That said, bye rounds do make scores of four and five (which I seem to have penchant for notching) seem a lot more impressive. Some risky tips last weekend saw me forced to settle for a score of five, as did Marnie Cohen.

A perfect Sunday allowed AdelaideDocker to extend his lead over the other experts with six, while Jeffers and The Crowd topped all of us with seven.

After a couple of tricky weeks, this is probably one of the easiest rounds to tip in quite some time. As such, I’m looking forward to my score of zero, as I’m sure the rest of you are.

Stirling Coates
Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast

So, the Brad Scott era at North Melbourne is over and the Rhyce Shaw era – yes, Rhyce Shaw – has begun. The Kangaroos looked very impressive digging deep last week to knock off the Bulldogs, but it’s hard to see that happening against a Richmond side who just continue to rack up wins.

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Saturday afternoon looks pretty easy to pick at first glance. Fremantle will throw everything at the Pies – this could be an unexpected cracker – but downing Collingwood on their own home deck requires a something special that I’m not sure the Dockers possess just yet. Indeed, Freo haven’t saluted over the Pies at the MCG since 2006.

Greater Western Sydney should emphatically rub their vastly superior fortunes in the face of expansion brothers Gold Coast yet again at Giants Stadium. The Suns have been brave most weeks, but this one could get very ugly.

Geelong fans would be nervous at the prospect of facing the Swans at home as, while they’ve lost just nine games at home this decade, four of those have come at the hands of Sydney. Without Josh Kennedy, however, it’s hard to see the visitors making it five.

Saturday night is where things get a bit trickier.

Brisbane are just starting to wobble a bit after their glorious start to the season and, no matter where they sit on the ladder, nobody likes playing Hawthorn. It’ll be a very tough match but, buoyed by their two victories over the Hawks last season, I’m backing the Lions to get it done at The Gabba.

Lincoln McCarthy

Brisbane need a win this week. (Jono Searle/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

People may be keen to point out Melbourne’s demolition of Adelaide last time they clashed in the Territory, but that was in Alice Springs, not Darwin where the Crows toweled them up last time. Neither team inspires much confidence at the moment, but the Demons have let me down on the tipping front all year so I’m going against them (which will no doubt see them pick up form).

St Kilda’s poor run of form against Port Adelaide is somewhat bloated by the fact their last five matches have been at the Adelaide Oval. The Saints actually haven’t hosted the Power since 2013. Alas, this ‘home’ game is not in the comforts of Marvel Stadium, but in the wildly unfamiliar surrounds of Shanghai, China. Power to win in front of an indifferent crowd.

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Carlton’s logo looks like a monogram to most of us, but to Essendon it must look like an enormous Mario Kart banana peel. The Bombers are banged up, the Blues are fired up – can lightning strike twice? It’d be worth it just for the meltdown on Footy Classified the next day, but I don’t see it happening this time.

The last game of the round will see the Eagles – who have a very impressive record for a supposedly ordinary team – breeze past the Bulldogs in WA.

Most of this weekend looks fairly cut and dry compared to some of the trickier rounds we’ve just navigated. As far of a Shoe-In of the Week is concerned, it has to be the Giants taking down the Suns in Sydney.

Marnie Cohen
North Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast

I smell a few upsets on the cards this weekend but, given I misjudged the upsets from round 10, I’m playing it a little safer this week.

I’m getting behind my Kangas for an upset. Interim coaches have this funny way of producing miracles in their first outings as top dogs so, hopefully, Rhyce Shaw can get the four points in his first game as North Melbourne coach.

This should be a pretty entertaining game, especially if North replicate the form that led them to victory last week. The Roos came within 13 points of a full strength Tigers outfit last year which makes it even more interesting.

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I have tipped both Essendon and Geelong but not confidently. Not confident about Essendon because of their growing injury list and truthfully, they’ve been playing pretty ordinary footy. Carlton did it last year and can certainly do it again.

Coach of the Bombers John Worsfold

John Worsfold should be very nervous of Carlton. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

While the Cats are the team to beat, Sydney is the sort of side to claw their way back from just about any position. Gone for Geelong at home but don’t let 15th position fool you.

Port Adelaide return to China where they have successfully fooled another side into playing a home game there. Port will be desperate to keep their season alive and I think they’ll bring the four points home.

The Bulldogs have had a funny old year. Defeated Hawthorn, Richmond and Brisbane but fallen to the Suns, Carlton and North. Their performance could go either way in the west but, after watching Freo strangle them at home earlier this year, I expect a similar (if not greater) result from the Eagles.

Adelaide and Brisbane should return to the winners list, Giants for a comfortable win over the Suns and Collingwood will be too good for Freo.

Daniel Jeffrey
Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast

A bit of a resurgence last week, time to have another solid round.

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Coming off such an eventful week, I can’t see North being able to get over the top of the in-form Tigers, who just continue to defy their injury list.

Nor, too, does anything but a Collingwood victory seem likely the following match. The Pies are continuing to firm as premiership fancies, and while they’ve been a solid team and are coming off a thrilling win over the Lions, Fremantle aren’t quite at the same standard as their opponents.

Brody Mihocek

Collingwood should be too good for Freo. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

GWS will handle Gold Coast comfortably at home, but their cross-town rivals Sydney will end this round with a second straight loss, even if Geelong don’t have Gary Ablett available. The Cats remain the competition’s best side, and are more than capable of dealing with a Josh Kennedy-less Swans outfit.

Brisbane should be confident of a victory over the inconsistent Hawks, while the other Saturday night fixture could go either way. Melbourne will bounce back after last week’s dismal showing but the Crows are in slightly better form, even if their loss to the Eagles was a bit of a stinker. Adelaide, just.

With St Kilda falling back into their old, uninspiring ways after a solid start to the year, Port Adelaide should be able to pick up a win in China. As Essendon are playing Carlton, one assumes they should win. It’s not like they’ve ever fallen in a heap for an unexpected loss to the Blues, right?

As for the last match of the round, West Coast at home will prove far too strong for the Bulldogs.

AdelaideDocker
Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Geelong, Brisbane, Adelaide, St Kilda, Essendon, West Coast

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Editor’s note: The above tips are genuinely AdelaideDocker’s, but he’s out of action this week and unable to provide a write-up. Given he saw Fremantle win in person last week, parodied lyrics to Freo’s maligned club song should do in place of words from him. Full credit goes to whichever Bigfooty forum poster wrote this an eternity ago. I can’t find the original source.

Freo way to go
Sideways backwards against the flow
Oh we can’t win three in a row
‘Cause we are the Freo Dockers

We’re amazing then we’re shockin’
Our consistency is rotten
We get draft picks but we swap ’em
So we’re always near the bottom
And though we get up, at 4am
Our cup cabinet’s got nothing – nothing

Freo way to go
Sideways backwards against the flow
Oh we can’t win three in a row
‘Cause we are the Freo Dockers

Second editor’s note: We originally had AD tipping Fremantle to beat Collingwood, but in spite of the above parochialism, he assures us that was a mistake, so we’ve changed his tip to the Pies.

Cam McCarthy

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

Round 11 Stirling Marnie Daniel AD Crowd
NM vs RCH RCH NM RCH RCH RCH
COL vs FRE COL COL COL COL COL
GWS vs GCS GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS
GEE vs SYD GEE GEE GEE GEE GEE
BL vs HAW BL BL BL BL BL
MEL vs ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE
STK vs PA PA PA PA STK PA
ESS vs CAR ESS ESS ESS ESS ESS
WCE vs WB WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE
Last week 5 5 7 6 7
Total score 54 52 51 58 60
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