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There will be few easy fixtures in what shapes as the most even World Cup in a long time. But Australia must bank early wins against weaker opponents to protect themselves against an incredibly difficult finish to the group stage.
Australia have been blessed by a favourable draw which will see them face the five lowest-ranked teams in the World Cup in their first six matches. Their campaign starts today with a match against Afghanistan (10th in ODI rankings) followed by the West Indies (8th), India (2nd), Pakistan (6th), Sri Lanka (9th) and Bangladesh (7th).
The Aussies can ill afford to drop any of those matches against lower-ranked opponents because they end the group stage against three very tough sides in England, New Zealand and South Africa, in that order. Australia have an awful recent record against those three teams since the last World Cup, with a win-loss record of 10-24.
England’s aggressive batting has troubled Australia, South Africa’s quicks have given them headaches, and the Kiwis so often seem to be inspired by the opportunity to defeat their Trans-Tasman rivals.
Australia are fortunate that, in theory at least, their favourable draw should allow them to build momentum and get to grips with the conditions before facing that trio of formidable teams. They also need to be convincing in victory over those lower-ranked teams to boost their net run rate, which could be decisive in qualifying for the semi-finals if the tournament is as even as many of us predict.
Australia must start today by thrashing Afghanistan. While Afghanistan are minnows no longer, having performed admirably to qualify for this ten-team World Cup, Australia should thump them, just as England did in their final warm-up. England exposed Afghanistan’s paper-thin batting line-up in that match, reducing them to 8-92, and then sprinted to a nine-wicket win with a whopping 32.3 overs remaining.
The last time Australia played Afghanistan, in the 2015 World Cup, it was like an exhibition match. Australia piled up a monstrous 6-417 before going on to record the second-largest win in ODI history by a margin of 275 runs. Almost half of the Afghanistan team that copped that hammering are quite likely to play today.
Off spinner Mohammad Nabi, all-rounder Samiullah Shinwari, quick Zawlat Zadran, and batsmen Najibullah Zadran and Asghar Afghan all played in that match and look set to front up again today.
But Afganistan, quite clearly, have developed enormously since that crushing loss. They have been offered many more international fixtures in the intervening four years and many of their players have benefited from playing in T20 franchise cricket around the world.
They also now boast two of the world’s best young white ball spinners in Rashid Khan and Mujeeb Ur Rahman, as well as the ultra-accurate Nabi.
Australia’s batsmen must be proactive against the Afghan spinners, to look to pressure them as the English batsmen did so successfully. While Mujeeb didn’t play in that match, Rashid and Nabi combined gave up 66 from their eight overs.
If Australia’s batsmen go into their shells against these slow bowlers, as they often have against good ODI spinners in recent years, that will offer Afghanistan their most likely route to victory. That’s not to suggest Australia should seek to thrash boundary after boundary from the Afghan spinners.
But they also cannot prod and poke from the crease, something they did far too often last year in England against home spinners Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali. Controlled aggression. That is what the Australian batsmen must display against Afghanistan’s trump card tweakers today.
Australia need to build up their net run rate in this match and then, on Thursday, dispatch the Windies just like they did in their warm-up fixture last week, which they won by seven wickets with 69 balls to spare. That will set Australia up for the blockbuster against India in eight days from day.