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So, it seems quite a few of us got our State of Origin Game 2 prediction horribly wrong.
I’ll put my hand up – I thought Queensland had the edge and said as much, but after watching Sunday’s game you’d be hard pressed to see anything other than a back-to-back Blues series win. More on that later.
With Queensland’s resounding loss conveniently happening with ten rounds and one State of Origin left, it’s time to take stock of your predictions for this season.
What did you see happening? Are you on track? Are you picking and sticking, or are you chucking your prediction into the bin faster than Brad Fittler threw his Origin 1 team away? Here’s mine.
South will ‘win’ the coach swap with Brisbane
Status: on track
Pick and stick or in the bin? Pick and stick
Judging on what we’ve seen in 2019, Souths would be much happier with their lot after the much-publicised ‘swap’ between Anthony Seibold and Wayne Bennett.
The standings speak for themselves – the Rabbitohs are second with a 10-4 record, Brisbane are 12th, 5-8 and doubtful to play finals.
Wayne Bennett went to Souths with the mandate to win two more games than 2018, to get a premiership. They’ve wobbled slightly from time to time but are still where they need to be.
This may be a call worth revisiting in the long term, because Seibold was brought in to take over and ‘rebuild’ the Broncos. He’s been given a lot of rope, with a lot of people excusing bad results as being due to a poor squad, recruiting, play styles, you name it.
I don’t believe that for a second – under Bennett, the Broncos finished 2018 one win away from the top of the table.
Wayne Bennett (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Penrith will struggle
Status: in the air
Pick and stick or in the bin? Pick and stick
It’s not a thing against Penrith, I promise.
Last year I had the Panthers missing the finals and they ended one play away from a preliminary final against Melbourne. They’ve started 2019 appallingly, but they’re still only two premiership points and 54 points differential away from eighth spot.
They’ve had problems with their halves. James Maloney has been playing angrier than usual, Nathan Cleary has not imposed himself as Panthers hoped he might and now he’s out for a few weeks with an ankle injury sustained over in Perth.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard hasn’t yet reached his Origin standard and while he’s battled hard, Viliame Kikau has been dinged up too.
Coach Ivan Cleary might have been the Penrith board’s choice to take the reins, but he still has to convince a lot of fans that he’s got the stuff that will take the team to the pinnacle.
A reasonably helpful draw (only four more games against current top eight sides) might give the Panthers a chance to play finals, but they’ve got a hell of a lot of ground to make up.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard makes a break. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Queensland will win back the State of Origin shield
Status: on track-ish
Pick and stick or in the bin? Pick and stick
Expecting to win is one thing, playing to win is another. Like many others, I expected Queensland to muscle up in Game 2 on a disjointed and overwhelmed New South Wales. But it was patently obvious just three sets in that the Maroons were on the back foot and had little in reply. NSW went after them and when they had them, they didn’t let go.
There will likely be more of the same in Sydney on July 10, and Kevin Walters has a lot of thinking to do about how his team can rise again.
Kev, I’ll give you a tip – telling your players that they’re still not allowed to mention NSW ain’t the way to do it.
There’s much more to be opined and analysed ahead of the Origin decider, but right now I’d rather be Brad Fittler than Kevin Walters.
James Maloney (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Melbourne will come back to the pack
Status: thoroughly incorrect
Pick and stick or in the bin? In the bin
This prediction was put in the bin exactly 30 minutes into the Storm’s first match of the season, as they dismantled a much-vaunted Brisbane side.
From that dominant start they’ve gone on to win 11 of 13 and top the standings with a points differential of 188, 92 points ahead of the next best.
Fifteen Melbourne players suited up for their state or country during rep round last week.
Maybe it’s the beating they took in the grand final that coloured this prediction. I thought that with younger heads in key positions and Cameron Smith flying solo, things might be different.
The Storm had been losing quality players, too. Cooper Cronk in 2017, future Immortal Billy Slater and the consistently underrated Ryan Hoffman in 2018. Most other clubs would sink to the lower third of the ladder after this, but Melbourne aren’t like most clubs.
They’re the team you wish your team would be, led by Craig Bellamy, the man who turns dung into diamonds. As long as he’s there I’ll never doubt the Storm again.
Craig Bellamy. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The Bulldogs will rise up the table
Status: thoroughly incorrect
Pick and stick or in the bin? In the bin
Canterbury-Bankstown showed plenty at the back end of 2018 to make me think they’d turned a corner under new coach Dean Pay.
After just three wins from their first 14 matches, the Bulldogs split the rest of their season 5-5 to finish 12th.
It looked like the team had adjusted to Pay’s defensive style, their attack became more consistent. I had the Doggies pegged for a dark horse run at eight spot in 2019.
And how is 2019 going? Well, this prediction also lasted exactly 30 minutes into Round 1 – Canterbury were 0-16 down against New Zealand on the way to a 40-6 drubbing.
They’re sitting dead last in 16th, again with three wins from 14 games. Their points differential is -162. Their defence is nine tries worse than anyone else’s. Half of their losses have been by double-figure margins, with four losses of 20 or more points and two by 30-plus points.
There’s strong rumour that Pay is going to get the hook next season in what would be a pretty harsh move. His first head coaching role has been in the shadow of a phenomenal salary squeeze and he’s been up against it from day one.
Other than all that, this prediction was solid.
What predictions have you nailed? Which ones have you failed? Be honest now!