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On paper the first Sunday game at Docklands looks like a tight contest: 11th-placed St Kilda versus 10th-placed Richmond.
Richmond has won only one game more than the Saints and both teams are seemingly battling for a place in the top eight with nine games remaining. Both teams have won only two of their past five games and the Tigers have lost their last three.
Both teams have swung the axe: the Saints omitted three players and lost another through injury, while Richmond have omitted seven players from Round 13.
Why then is Richmond the shortest-priced favourite in the remaining seven games of Round 15?
The answer lies in the quality of the games played, the quality of the replacement players selected and the confidence, form and attitude of the clubs involved.
St Kilda has a coach who is hanging onto his position by a thread and will be sacked as soon as the Saints are out of contention for a place in the eight, whereas Richmond have a successful premiership coach who has been missing a number of key players throughout the season but is gradually getting some of them back on board.
Josh Caddy, who by the age of 24 had already played at three clubs, will play his 150th AFL game. The 45th player to appear at fledgling club Gold Coast, he still remains on the Suns top 100 lists at No. 52 in games played and No. 30 in goals scored. A successful stint of 71 games at Geelong over four years was not enough for him to achieve any top 100 ranking there, but in three seasons at the Tigers he has already kicked enough goals, including a remarkable 46 in 2018, to sit in 94th position among Richmond’s all-time top 100 goal scorers.
Can Brisbane prove themselves again against a fired-up Melbourne who are coming off a good win against Port Adelaide? I believe so, and I will watch with interest the performance of AFL elite player Luke Hodge, who has snuck into the Lions top 100 game players recently, to see if his form is good enough for another season. There is no doubt he has performed a valuable role at the club since commencing there, but the question remains as to whether that role is required next year.
For Melbourne, hopefully Michael Hibbard will play his 50th game for the Demons to add to his 84 games at Essendon.
The final game in the west will see the Blues take on Fremantle without their superstar Patrick Cripps. Both sides have had injury problems, with Jesse Hogan and Stephen Hill missing for the Dockers and Cripps, Harry Mackay and David Cuningham out for the Blues.
While Carlton have been improving week on week recently, with those three missing players and with the added incentive for the Dockers of a spot in the final eight it is hard to see the Blues being able to cause an upset by beating the team currently eighth on the ladder away from home.
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