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World Cup finals hopes hang in balance

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30th June, 2019
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Six teams remain in contention for the World Cup finals with Australia still the only team mathematically guaranteed safe passage.

How the World Cup contenders’ finals hopes look

Australia (14pts, NRR: 1.00 vs South Africa)
Guaranteed of a top-two spot and will finish first if they beat South Africa on Saturday night. Their most likely semi-final combatant remains New Zealand, although it’s possible they could face any of England, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

India (11pts,  NRR: 0.85, vs Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)
Still not mathematically assured of a semi-final spot but can be almost certain they will be there. Wins in their last two games will mean they finish first or second. Could only miss the finals if they lose both, England beat New Zealand and there is a significant net run-rate shift against the winner of Bangladesh and Pakistan succeeding by a massive margin.

New Zealand (11pts, NRR: 0.57, vs England)
A win against England will guarantee their semi-final spot but a loss could leave them hanging on other results. Bangladesh shape as their most likely threat for a finals spot on net run-rate, but that would require the Tigers beating both India and Pakistan in their last two games. 

England (10pts, NRR: 1.00, vs New Zealand)
Back in the hunt after their defeat of India, but still have a big week ahead. Wednesday’s clash with New Zealand is a virtual must win or otherwise they are relying on other results. Will be knocked out if they lose and Pakistan beat Bangladesh. Alternatively an England loss and Bangladesh wins over India and Pakistan will also spell the hosts’ exit.

Pakistan (9pts, NRR: -0.79 vs Bangladesh)
Now relying on England to lose to New Zealand, making a win over Bangladesh enough to reach the finals. Alternatively they need the Black Caps to be flogged, and in turn they need to win big in their last game to turn the net run-rate around to go ahead of New Zealand. 

Bangladesh (7pts, NRR: -0.13 vs India, Pakistan)
Need to win both their games to have any hope. If they do, a New Zealand win over England will guarantee their passage. Alternatively if England win, Bangladesh will need to turn around the net run-rate to go past the Black Caps.

* Sri Lanka, West Indies, South Africa and Afghanistan are all out of contention.

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