We have reached an Origin decider, and there are few events on the Australian sporting calendar which bring out the passion and intensity of the biggest match of the rugby league year. Here to guide you through it are The Roar’s State of Origin expert tipping panel.
After years and years of Queensland domination, the Blues finally hit back with a series victory last year, and it looked like the tide might have been turning.
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But then, the sides went to Brisbane for Game 1 in 2019 and the Maroons turned up, driving the Blues back into the dim, dark past, winning by four points after being behind at halftime.
The performance was reminiscent of previous Queensland Origin performances – a team who had complete control of their situation, were able to attack through the forwards and had domination in the halves.
But then the teams went to Perth, and if Game 1 was a typical Queensland Origin performance, then Game 2 was anything but.
The Maroons turned up seemingly with the expectation that they were going to win, and put in a performance most reserve grade sides wouldn’t have been proud of.
The Blues thumped them by 32 points to set up the decider, and yet, it’s hard to say who should go in with favouritism.
New South Wales rolled the dice with seven changes last time out and have kept as many of those as possible, but surely the Maroons won’t serve up trash like they did two and a half weeks ago?
It’s intriguing, it’s tense and it’s exactly the way an Origin decider should be.
To form part of The Crowd, get your tips in on the form at the bottom of the article. Crowd tips will close at approximately 6pm (AEST) on Sunday evening.
Tip: Queensland by 2
Here it is, Game 3 in a series that has gone from one extreme to another. After the Game 1 loss was followed by a raft of changes, it seemed Brad Fittler had lost the plot and yet another Queensland win was inevitable. Then came the 32-point beatdown in Perth, and it seems Kevin Walters has lost the plot and a New South Wales win is inevitable.
So goes State of Origin, where one game is completely different to the next. Injuries and ‘clever’ selections make Game 3 one that, on paper, should go to the men in blue, but on the field can just as easily go to Queensland. Like most, I was amazed that Fittler didn’t bring David Klemmer straight back in. But Klemmer is there, and he’ll play his role at 100 per cent like he always does.
Queensland has the grunt, New South Wales has the dynamism. Both styles have had a win so far but it’s a really tough call to predict how this will all end. I love Cameron Munster at fullback for the Maroons, and after my early cynicism, I love Tom Trbojevic in the NSW centres.
I don’t know about Corey Norman in the Queensland halves in his first ever Origin game, especially with Michael Morgan still over at centre. I like Christian Welch getting a gig, I think he’s a great player.
Then we’ve got Mitchell Pearce coming back for the Blues. Finally, he gets crack at a team that’s on the level, i.e. not stuffed with future immortals and their premiership teammates. Pearce will do fine – all he needs to do is get the ball to Tedesco, Addo-Carr or Trbojevic and get the hell out of the way.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
I’ve tipped Queensland all the way through so I can’t back away from it now, tempting as it is. They need to defend early like their lives depend on it or they’re in for another filthy night.
If things get tough, they need to stay focused, not like game two when their heads turned to pumpkins. The fate of Kevin Walters’ team rides with Daly Cherry-Evans, Munster, and Ben Hunt at hooker. Hunt needs to clean up his delivery so his halves have a chance to use the ball rather than panic play with cockroaches in their faces.
State of Origin just keeps delivering, doesn’t it? This should be a brilliant finale to a most interesting series.
First try-scorer: Jack Wighton
Man of the match: Daly Cherry-Evans
Tip: New South Wales by 8
I have tipped the losing team in the last two Origin games and I will quite possibly go three in a row but I can’t go past the Blues as 2019 series winners.
With Ponga out, there is a danger for NSW gone and Queensland will miss Munster in the halves.
Mitchell Pearce will provide a steady and experienced hand to partner Jimmy Maloney for NSW and Wade Graham can provide spark from the bench if needed.
The Queensland grit and resilience will ensure the game is close but I reckon Sydney and the inclusion of Dave Klemmer will ensure NSW fans are chanting two in a row and dreaming about a Blues dynasty.
First try-scorer: Corey Oates
Man of the match: James Tedesco
Tip: New South Wales by 7
The Maroons dominated Game 1 through the middle third of the field and at the time the scoreline didn’t seem an accurate reflection of how far on the front foot the Maroons had been.
Coming into Game 2 and Freddy was sacking blokes, picking rookies and selecting players out of position all over the place. Things seemed grim for Blues fans and instead of the dawn of a new era we were having nightmares about a decade of getting pushed around by Munster and Ponga.
But the Blues absolutely trounced the Queenslanders in one of the more dominant Origin victories and this time the scoreline every bit reflected how the game went.
Now, Blues fans are crowing and counting the years of their dominance (one, two, one, two). Queensland are at sixes and sevens with a team full of halves but no centres. Clearly rattled.
But beware the wounded Queenslander! I mean, the Maroons have never pulled off a massive upset victory against all the odds, have they?
Teddy’s been stiffed of a man of the match award his entire career so I’m going with him for MOM.
Turbo got me the chocolates in Game 2 for first try scorer. This time out I’m going for Tyson Frizell.
NSW by seven with Jimmy Maloney to kick the sealing field goal.
First try-scorer: Tyson Frizell
Man of the match: James Tedesco
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Tip: NSW by 4
There is nothing in Australian sport quite like an Origin decider, and with the Blues full of confidence and at home, there are plenty of reasons pointing towards why you would tip them.
While Mitchell Pearce, for mine at least, isn’t even close to one of those reasons, they dominated Game 2 and will be looking to do the same again, but more importantly, they have the attitude and cattle to do it.
The key is undoubtedly getting away to a fast start, and having their forwards tuned into the contest from the opening minutes, just like they so obviously were in Perth.
The return of David Klemmer – who I assume will be drafted back into the starting team – will help this, and putting a mountain of pressure on Ben Hunt at dummy half is also critical.
Speed of service out of dummy half was one of the big differences between the sides – and the key reason the Blues pack rolled the Maroons – last time out, and it again shapes as a key area.
However, the Maroons will also be looking to change their structure slightly with Cameron Munster moving to fullback and Corey Norman coming into the side to replace the injured Kalyn Ponga.
I tend to think this may actually strengthen them aside from the one-off moments Ponga can create, and if Munster can settle straight into his role both in attack and defence, then the Blues could be in strife.
Still, their spine is good, and even with Pearce back into the side, it’s the form, class and composure of guys like James Tedesco, Damien Cook and James Maloney – who I reckon will be man of the match – who should be able to get the Blues over the line and onto their second straight series victory.
First try-scorer: Damien Cook
Man of the match: James Maloney
Be sure to get your tips in on the form below by 6pm (AEST) on Sunday, and we will have the results in the table and comments section below.
| Origin 3 | AJ | Stuart | The Barry | Scott | The Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW vs QLD | QLD | NSW | NSW | NSW | ??? |
| Margin | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 | ??? |
| First try-scorer | Wighton | Oates | Frizell | Cook | ??? |
| Man of the match | Cherry-Evans | Tedesco | Tedesco | Maloney | ??? |
| Game 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
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